Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
Bears have some Sooners so definitely Go BEARS! I heard Mark Bradley will be back -- just wish Tommy Harris was playing!
Why you don't have a speaking engagement at CPAC is beyond me.
Semper Fi,
TS
Every single thing you posted sounds like Rudy and no, he isn't going to try to remove planks from the GOP platform.
The other weekend we had so much ice on the street we couldn't get out. Mail wasn't delivered either. I had gone to the store so I hibernated and only took the dogs out.
I am tired of cold. Wish SoCal would warm up so we could warm up! :)
Supposed to get down to 10 tonight. We are running 20-30 degrees below normal. YUCK!
After Istook running for Governor and getting beat 2-1, I will pass on Romney unless I absolutely have no choice.
That is some seriously good spin. But it is spin.
Regards,
TS
He's dead, Jim. Ronald Wilson Reagan.
Newt seems to fill your bill, but with his talk about waiting until September to decide, he's lacking the "fire in his belly" at this juncture.
Will it make you feel warmer that 12 is our projected high for tomorrow and we are in the middle of an 18 hour winter storm warning :)
Southern CA is suffering a harsh and cold winter. I am sick to death of winter: gray skies, freezing temperatures and barren trees.
Let SPRING come early!!!
I'll support the GOP nominee 100%.
I won't determine who gets my vote in the primary until after the first of the candidate debates.
Usually by this time crocus are blooming but not this year. I still have ice on the back deck from two weeks ago. I hate cold weather.
LOL! I didn't know that!
Let's talk about this seriously, shall we?
Newt just pushed his "I'll think about that in September" to OCTOBER, tonight, on O'Reilly's show. He is NOT going to be in the primaries!
There is no, NO great white Conservative HOPE, who is going to all of a sudden sweep in and garner the GOP nomination; NONE!
Tancredo is a KOOK, Ron Paul is even worse, Hagel, has delusions of now being McCain, Brownback and Huckabee ( who has turned into a NANNYSTATER ) offer nothing and Hunter offers less; not to mention the fact that Hunter is besmirched.
That leaves McCain ( OVER MY DEAD BODY !), Romney and Rudy. Romney is third man back, right now, vis-a-vis financial and political backing and putting a team together.
If I am wrong, show me WHERE.
Dang!
We have some plants and shrubs in bloom, but I have no idea what they're called...lol.
UNREAL! Yet, we have posters here who tell us there's no differences in the two parties.
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