Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
Torie, I don't think you count anyway; you're not really a "newfound liberal friend," are you?
The strangest thing of all --- you and I are NOT Rudy supporters at this juncture.
Well, we SHOULD be at the back of the bus, you know.
Or van...lol.
You have joined us by association! Us desperate housewives have to stick together! :)
Go with your gut...that's what it means; what you're thinking is EXACTLY what it means!
Thank you, Jim. I thought so. You might want to pass that message on to Howlin. She seems to have forgotten what we've all been trying to do here for 10 years and what many of us have been trying to do for longer than that. How were we to know that all this time we've been holding our feet on her neck with all this conservative talk and activism.
And yes, I just gave another lesson; gratis. :-(
It's the same up NORTH! :-)
On a dark, rainy night in Georgia with our banjo playing the theme song from 'Deliverance'.
I told you before not to put words in my mouth.
But you just cannot stop yourself, can you?
Instead your try to make anybody here who doesn't agree with you feel inferior.
You're too harse and strident.
And what's this "what we've been trying to do here for 10 years" crap.
You trash FR on other sites. Don't deny it; we proved it the other night.
You and your "I'm a Better Conservative than you are" pals are going to run most of the people off this site.
And I think that's exactly what you want.
And no straw hate until Easter Sunday and NO straw hats AFTER Labor Day! :-)
Wonder what color dress? But then he cannot run for President! :) Tough decision for him to make!
LOL
Gee, I may be a "housewife", but I'm really not "desperate"! LOL
You've been running conservatives out of here since 2000.
Rudy (or Ruby) red, white and blue?
It is going to be ugly if Iraq continues on its present course. That genie is out of the bottle, and it is proving very tough to get it back in. Novak printed somthing that the "GOP Senators" have decided Bush must get out of Iraq by the end of 2007, or it is curtains. Which does suggest, that if the Novak "disclosure" is true, maybe the only principled course is curtains.
Gee, I think YOU should ask him to do that, since you are such a busybody and I'm not. ;^)
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