[Ingtar]

I cannot see Pennsylvania or Michigan going for Guliani on your list. There is too much fraud. Throw in that in the next election the Ds are in a better position to steal Florida and Ohio, and thinks look worrisome for whichever candidate wins the primary.

[Oct1967]

What is most worrisome is history...fraud is overrated...I dont think any election in MI or PA at the Presidential level has been swayed by fraud...

Here is the problem the GOP faces in 2008:

Historically after a party wins two consecutuve elections it loses at least 4-5 points of the two party popular vote in the next election:

TWO party vote here:

1996 Clinton 54%
2000 Gore 50%

1984 Reagan 60%
1988 Bush 55%

1972 Nixon 62%
1976 Ford 49%

1964 LBJ 61%
1968 Humphrey 50%

1956 Eisenhower 58%
1960 Nixon 50%

That means the GOP in the best case scenario (ala 1988 and 2000) is headed for a 53-47 defeat, on par with 1996 (54-46). In the worst scenario (1976 and 1960), it could be a 60-40 rout.