Posted on 01/31/2007 10:53:13 AM PST by A. Pole
Humans have already left such a deep footprint on the environment that the effects of global warming will last for the next 1,000 years, according to a draft copy of a new report.
The Globe and Mail obtained an early version of the climate change study being prepared by the world's leading scientists, and reported that little doubt remains that the planet is getting hotter.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will release the report on Friday at a news conference in Paris, while a simultaneous conference will be held in Ottawa.
The report says heat waves, droughts and rain storms, as well as violent typhoons and hurricanes, will become more frequent.
The report paints a startling picture of the effects of climate change and says evidence of the phenomenon is now "unequivocal."
It says human influence on the atmosphere during the 21st century alone will propel global warming for another 1,000 years, based on estimates of how long it will take nature to clean the air of gases that contribute to climate change.
Among the other findings, the report states that the last half-century was probably the hottest in at least the past 1,300 years. And in 11 of the past 12 years, temperatures were among the highest since the 1850s, when accurate temperature measurements were first set down.
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice, and rising sea level," says the draft. The document is being reviewed in Paris.
It is the fourth report to be issued by the group of 2,000 global experts organized by the UN, including many from Canada.
The first report was issued in 1990. Since then, the panel's stance on global warming -- and the notion that it is being brought on in large part by deforestation, large scale agriculture and burning of fossil fuels -- has become more established.
The IPPC's first report suggested global warming might be under way. In 1995, the second report said it was likely that global warming was happening. In 2001, the third report suggested scientists were pretty sure human behaviour was impacting the climate.
But the tone of the newest report suggests there's nothing left to argue and climate change is now a stark reality.
Evidence of the phenomenon is being seen almost everywhere on the planet, from mountain tops, where glaciers are shrinking, to the bottom of the oceans, where average water temperatures are increasing as far as 3,000 metres below the surface.
The strong tone of the IPCC report should eliminate any lingering doubts that global warming is really happening, say some environmentalists who are calling on politicians to take more drastic action to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
"There is no more reason to delay," John Bennett, spokesman for the Climate Action Network Canada told The Globe. "We need the policies, regulations, and programs to reduce emissions and we need to do it with the same kind of urgency that we would use to fight a war."
The draft predicts the following developments will occur as the ongoing results of global warming:
Thanks for the science lesson.
I think the sun is less understood than we think....I've read recently that Mars and Jupiter are warming too....Hello Socialists?
I still haven't figured out the motives of the Left for pushing this man caused "Global Warming" thing....must be something to do with raising taxes huh?
I am always astounded how presumed serious "scientists" always couch their darkest "facts' in uknowable and unprovable future events.
I might take even a slanted "report" (summary?) more seriously, if they could unequivocally link present conditions to the past 100 years of human activity ...
I stress the word "unequivocally". Therein lies science, and the crux of the present political problem.
'Global warming' has become so politicized that there is no limit to the degree of catastrophe that the left will embrace. Like our casualties in the war, the worse the news is, the more they like it.
Am I the only one who clearly sees a profound and crucial contradiction in just this short paragraph?
How can they call this "science"? How can these be our best and brightest? I quote: "... early version of the climate change study being prepared by the world's leading scientists"
Bin Laddie taking over in 10 yrs or less. So he'll have 990 yrs. to fix it. Or will it need fixin after he's in charge? Get yer sh-t togather fags.
WE. ARE. DOOMED.
Sign the Kyoto treaty and criminalize disbelief in global warming .
Global warming: So easy, a caveman could do it.
I hope it lasts through my lifetime, anyway. I'd rather live where the climate is more like that in Hawaii, than like northern Alaska.
Just in time to nullify global cooling.
Could we take punitive actions against the author's descendants if they are wrong with this prediction?
Heh heh. I think I'll have to avoid the fate of subsequent generations and just plan on peacefully passing away by 2060. If the Lord grants me an audience (provided I get there and not someplace a lot warmer), I'll respectfully request that he turn down the Sun's rheostat a notch for the sake of my kids, and their kids, and their kids, and their kids, and so on, and so on, and so on...
Well, then, let's test this "science" making no assumptions that can't be founded on facts.
All future predictions of doom are based on computer models.
The accurate record, as stated in the "report" (summary?) consists of 150 years, which makes 7+ increments of 20 year periods available for a reality test.
Take the data from 1857 through 1877 and plug it without any tweaking or editing (it is either accurate, or it isn't!) into the best computer model that they have, and predict the climate and weather for 1877 through 1897. Compare it to what was actually observed. Do the same with each successive 20-year period up to the present.
We could take book from these "scientists" as to whether they are able to get any one period right!
Why hasn't this been done?
If they did it successfuly, 7 times out of 7, I would instantly become an anthropogenic-global-warming believer!
If they can't do it successfuly, how can these "scientists", with a straight face, expect us to accept their 100-years into the future prediction?
Again, I repeat, current predictions of doom are based on flawed computer models, not on facts; or science.
CO2 emissions were not nearly as high as now.
You illustrate one of the points that alarmists like to ignore. A warmer Earth is a wetter Earth. It also includes a comfortable temperature range (for most plants and animals) over a much larger percentage of the Earth's surface.
Whether the current warming will increase, or even last much longer, before the next ice age, is a question that nobody can answer, but it is certain that a 10 degree (F) increase in the Earth's average temperature would greatly increase the amount of life.
Does it really need to be said?
A notion, no matter how old, becoming "established", is not science!
Dammit!
Why? The Ice Age took place precisely because Pirates were not there. Makes sense.
That is totally, 100%, wrong. And it's IPCC. Water vapor must be a part of any model predicting a temperature rise over 1 C by 2100 (or when atmospheric CO2 doubles in concentration). The positive feedback effect of water vapor (increasing relative humidity) is the main thing pushing estimates into the 2-5 degree C range.
Cloud feedback effects could moderate or accentuate this effect. (Note added for esteemed FReeper "palmer")
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.