Are Democrats Surging Out West? Numbers Say No

real clear politics ^ | January 29, 2007 | Stu Rthnberg

[bilhosty]

More than a few journalists and political pontificators have noted recent Democratic gains in the Mountain West, which includes Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico. Some see those gains in 2004 and 2006 as shattering a reliable Republican region, while others argue recent wins are only the beginning of a Democratic rally that will continue in 2008 and beyond. After one of the best newspapers on the planet screamed “West Is Going Democrats’ Direction” and “Political Shift in Mountain States” in headlines, I figured I’d look at the numbers myself to see how much of an opportunity Democrats have to turn the Mountain West blue, or at least purple. After dissecting the historical data over the past 25 years and comparing it to election results from the past few cycles, it’s very clear that not much is going on. I’m certainly not ruling out changes in 2008 or 2010, and I’m not saying that there have been no changes. But so far, the hype about a shift has overwhelmed the reality.

[bilhosty]

Good news for once.

[yoe]

As long as the Dems keep Missus Clinton on the front burner along with Obama, neither have the capabilities to run the country; both keep terrorism, the main threat to our country, out of their speeches – they are still beating and bashing this very successful administration in spite of the economy; refuse to admit Iraq success and try to tie the hands of our military even further. They have no solutions beyond parroting the party lines with tired old rhetoric. So keep on bashing, being negative; mighty good for the real Americans, those that will protect our country. Lord knows the Democrats won't.

[Mr. Jeeves]

It's good if the Democrats aren't really gaining in the West, but all of those states combined don't have enough electoral votes to counter the forthcoming loss of Ohio and the rest of the Rust Belt to voters worried about globalization. Republicans must force the Democrats to spend a lot of money defending New York, New Jersey, and California - and need to pick up one of those states.

[x_plus_one]

Madame Mao - aka- Hillary Clinton - is the poster child for boomer politics. "Vote for me because I stayed with that jerk and carried his water for years"

[betsyross1776]

The only reason the demos won in Nov was because reps got their noses in the air and did not vote. They found out the hard way with the congress the only ones they hurt was their own party. If they did not like the people who represent them , then get rid of that guy in the primary. The reps that are in congress now have no backbone and cannot fight in a debate with a cat like Pelosi.Heck the reps in there make Harry Reid look like the debater of the year.If demos win reps do not vote. Whose fault is it, nobody but their own The country is still 50/50.

[org.whodat]

The only reason the demos won in Nov was because reps got their noses in the air and did not vote.

And your proof of that is?

[italianquaker]

just read the posts months before the elections and you will see many people were talking about teaching "them" a lesson. pelosi,hillary and harry thank "them"

[betsyross1776]

I work the polls.I am the elected majority inspector in my ward.I saw the campaign our rep senator had and it was terrible. Even his poll workers complained about the street lists they had. Nobody called anybody out to vote for the guy and he lost. Terrible campaign and what was worse the reps in my ward did not come out to vote. They all said about the spending ; the fact that Bush needed to learn a lesson, and was not acting like Regan. This was told to me by reps who did not show up at the polls . When I ran into them ,they told that was the reason. What did they get in return? Yep, it is true bad politic ans are elected by good citizens who don't vote! That is what happened here, I do not know what happened where you were, but this is the feedback I got.