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Warming makes predicting Alpine avalanches harder (Swiss climate expert, less snowfall makes it so)
Reuters on Yahoo ^ | 1/26/07 | Reuters

Posted on 01/26/2007 4:49:03 PM PST by NormsRevenge

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - Winter temperatures are rising steadily across the European Alps but snow volumes have varied wildly, making it harder to assess the risk of avalanches, a Swiss climate expert said on Friday.

Climatologist Christoph Marty said the cold winds and snow that greeted more than 2,000 members of the world's political and business elites in Davos this week masked a clear warming trend in the region, where winter had a very mild start.

A reduction in snow cover generally means that the danger of avalanches decreases, but Marty said increased variability of snowfall made it hard to predict.

The Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research expert said the warmest five Alpine winters over the past 70 years -- when reliable measurements started -- have taken place in the past 15 years, and snowfall has varied greatly.

"It is very obvious that it is getting warmer and warmer, especially here in the Alps in the winter. The variability of snowfall is much higher than the temperature," he told Reuters in a telephone interview from his office in Davos.

"So far we have had one of the snow-poorest winters since measurements started. Before this snowfall, it was among the bottom five (years)," he said of the 2006-07 season, which has seen major Alpine ski races canceled due to lack of snow.

Famed for its high-altitude skiing, Davos claims to be the highest town in Europe at 1,500 meters above sea level. Marty said lower-altitude locations showed a clear downward trend in the number of days with snow cover in the past 70 years.

This has generally decreased avalanche risks in such areas, although Marty stressed that precipitation shifts meant that heavy snowfall could -- perhaps at rare intervals -- trigger large avalanches.

Such variability has made it hard for experts to predict how the Alps will react to continued global warming over the near-term, he said. "All the signs we see so far are that climate change will be accompanied by extremes, and by large variability in snowfall ... You never know what is happening."


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: alpine; avalanches; climatechange; davos; globalwarming; harder; predicting

1 posted on 01/26/2007 4:49:06 PM PST by NormsRevenge
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To: NormsRevenge

Less Snow, fewer avalanches. What's the problem?


2 posted on 01/26/2007 4:51:05 PM PST by Post Toasties
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To: NormsRevenge
Dude,

You're fired!

3 posted on 01/26/2007 4:51:28 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ...... California 2007,, Where's a script re-write guy when ya need 'em?)
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To: NormsRevenge

Global warming is almost as dangerous as Chuck Norris.


4 posted on 01/26/2007 4:52:25 PM PST by cripplecreek (Peace without victory is a temporary illusion.)
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To: Post Toasties

It's the variability of the snowfall, it's a scientific thing, yaknow. ;-)

I wonder how big his grant is?


5 posted on 01/26/2007 4:52:29 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ...... California 2007,, Where's a script re-write guy when ya need 'em?)
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To: cripplecreek

Too bad Sly Stallone isn't on w/ him and Alan. He could kick both their.. uhh.. lol (/off topic) :-)


6 posted on 01/26/2007 4:54:50 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ...... California 2007,, Where's a script re-write guy when ya need 'em?)
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To: NormsRevenge

Many of these stories get published because of the Global Warming scare.

Stories which point the other way, such as fewer hurricanes in the USA this year, get little coverage.


7 posted on 01/26/2007 4:56:03 PM PST by preacher (A government which robs from Peter to pay Paul will always have the support of Paul.)
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To: NormsRevenge

HEADLINE:
Gore Flatulence Sweeps the World.


8 posted on 01/26/2007 5:00:01 PM PST by rusureitflies? (OSAMA BIN LADEN IS DEAD! There, I said it. Prove me wrong.)
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To: NormsRevenge

"Climatologist Christoph Marty said the cold winds and snow that greeted more than 2,000 members of the world's political and business elites in Davos this week masked a clear warming trend in the region, where winter had a very mild start."

Translation: "It makes it harder to push our Global warming garbage when it's so darn cold. The temperature just won't cooperate".


9 posted on 01/26/2007 5:15:57 PM PST by Bigh4u2 (Denial is the first requirement to be a liberal)
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To: Bigh4u2

Got down to only 9 degrees here in Brunswick, OH last night. Thank goodness for global warming, could have been worse!


10 posted on 01/26/2007 5:55:30 PM PST by doc1019
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To: NormsRevenge
...cold winds and snow ... masked a clear warming trend...

LOL. That pesky Ole Man Winter always does mask those warming trends!

11 posted on 01/26/2007 7:56:53 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: doc1019; DaveLoneRanger

We've been down to zero.


12 posted on 01/26/2007 8:31:00 PM PST by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: metmom

There we go … that pesky global warming thingy.


13 posted on 01/26/2007 8:36:44 PM PST by doc1019
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