Posted on 01/25/2007 8:32:31 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Rudy Giuliani's star has hardly dimmed in the five years since terrorists attacked his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and he became a national hero _ the face of U.S. resolve at a time of tragedy.
The Republican dubbed "America's Mayor" hopes to ride that celebrity and his record at City Hall to the White House by emphasizing his leadership skills and embracing the strong-on-security, limited-government tenets of the GOP.
"If he can handle the scrutiny, and if events break his way, sure, he can win," said Fred Siegel, who wrote a Giuliani biography, "The Prince of the City."
Giuliani's quest to capture his party's presidential nomination won't be easy.
He's a moderate Republican from New York City, on the wrong side of social issues in the eyes of hard-core conservatives who are a crucial voting bloc in the primaries. His mayoral tenure was marked by criticism of an overzealous police force. He's linked to the city's scandal-plagued ex-police chief Bernard Kerik. His thicket of business interests could pose conflicts. He's been divorced twice.
"I sure have strengths and weaknesses," Giuliani said recently. "I think that sort of puts me in the same category as just about everybody else that's running. Are my strengths greater or my weaknesses worse? I don't know. You have to sort of examine that. That won't be the issue."
His challenge will be to remind voters of his take-charge attitude on Sept. 11 and his two-term mayoral reign, at the same time his main rivals _ Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney _ no doubt will try to exploit his background and record. For now, both are trying to gauge how much of a threat he may be.
Giuliani, who formed a presidential exploratory committee last year, is betting that the Republican rank-and-file will look past his liabilities. His aides dismiss skeptics who say he has too many flaws to win over primary voters a year from now.
"I believe they'll look at the picture as a whole," said Tony Carbonetti, Giuliani's longtime political adviser. "This (New York) was an unmanageable city, and I think what people want today is a manager, someone to lead in difficult times and to lead in not-difficult times.
"We're going to continue to tell that story," he said.
Before Sept. 11, Giuliani was known as the hard-charging prosecutor-turned-politician who cleaned up Times Square, led the city out of fiscal despair and brought Republican rule back to the liberal mecca.
Giuliani, of course, made enemies in the process, but on Sept. 11 even his chronic critics were muted when he took charge amid the rubble of the World Trade Center's twin towers. To many, he became a picture of strength, a reminder of the resilience of the American spirit.
"He has a connection to that. He is unique. On the other hand you look at the politics and you say this is a problem," said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist in Washington who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate.
"The question is: Can you win a Republican primary a different way? History keeps saying no. But history has never presented us with someone whose favorability numbers are as high as Rudy's."
Indeed, national polls have consistently shown him leading for the GOP nomination, and early surveys in key states show him ahead or competitive. He travels to one important state, New Hampshire, this weekend where he will give the keynote address at the state GOP's annual meeting.
For all the hype since 2001, Giuliani didn't start preparing for a presidential run in earnest until after November's elections. Thus, he has lagged behind McCain and Romney in courting fundraisers, setting up a national organization and hiring ground operatives in key states, although he has made progress on all fronts recently.
Giuliani's aides insist they're making strides toward filling out his campaign. They say he can raise the $80 million to $100 million necessary this year for a serious run. Name recognition, obviously, isn't an issue.
Neither, his supporters argue, is likability. They say he appeals to people across the political spectrum and in every region of the country, meaning he could expand the general election playing field. That, his backers say, makes him the Republican most likely to beat the presumptive Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Perhaps.
But first he has to capture the GOP nomination _ and the big question is whether he can win over enough Republicans in states like Iowa and South Carolina, among the first nominating contests where voters are solid conservatives and could be turned off by his stance on social issues.
"Giuliani is going to have to convince people that he's more conservative than his record otherwise would suggest," said Peverill Squire, who teaches politics at the University of Iowa.
The former mayor's support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control conflict with the hard-line positions of the GOP's right. His supporters say he's not as liberal on those issues as he's made out to be. Still, he's from New York _ and that alone rankles the party's conservative wing.
Despite that, Giuliani's backers contend _ and some Republican strategists agree _ that he could get support from fiscal conservatives because of his record of cutting taxes, curbing spending and promoting small government, particularly now when the base is smarting over the soaring federal deficit under Republicans.
And, with the country still at war, his link to Sept. 11 _ the brand of a strong leader _ could trump the base's concerns about his background and stand on social issues.
"Giuliani's national security credentials will allow him to span ideological divides in the Republican Party and win conservative votes," said Greg Strimple, a GOP strategist in New York who is neutral in the race.
Unknown is whether Giuliani can woo enough of those base Republican voters to win the nomination and, if not, whether he can make up the difference by attracting independents and Democrats.
"His opening could come if people really think that somebody like Hillary is running away with it, and if there's a perception that only Giuliani can beat her," said John Truscott, an unaffiliated Republican strategist in Michigan.
Another factor that could help Giuliani is how the primary calendar shakes out.
New Hampshire and Michigan hold early contests, and New Jersey, California, Illinois, Florida and other states viewed as more hospitable to a moderate may schedule their votes earlier in the year, perhaps lessening the importance of a strong showing for Giuliani in Iowa and South Carolina.
For all the obstacles, even folks with ties to Giuliani's opponents can't deny that the New Yorker has a shot.
Said Ken Khachigian of California, who served as a strategist for President Reagan and was with McCain in 2000: "I would never sell Giuliani short."
Perhaps those the Republicans have tried to groom have been seen as targets of the leftist media and dogs have been set on their heels as they climb the ladder for the purpose of marginalization.
Let me me think...Nixon, Kemp, Newt, and perhaps others seem to fit the historical bill as targets.
My kids' high school recently did the same thing. They call it the "Womanless Beauty Revue." Lots of laughs! Those that criticize Rudy for this and think this matters to most people come across as idiots and homophobes.
How am I going to explain to my children why President Giuliani wears a dress?
I'm afraid this is where a common belief in politics, with respect to the GOP, never comes to fruition. You can witness it on a lesser scale with Governorships, but almost every single time, no Conservative Republican ever follows a liberal/RINO in office. When the liberal/RINO pursues those policies we associate with the Democrats, and they almost always tend to prove a fiasco or unpopular, they get the entire GOP associated with those said failed policies... and what you get in the end is not only a debased party, but a Democrat successor. A President Giuliani and/or a President Romney would not only assure the likelihood of a Democrat successor, it would also likely assure continuing (and growing) 'Rat Congressional, Gubernatorial, and Legislative majorities.
That's a really good point, but there are really only about 6 or 7 states that will be truly up for grabs in the presidential election. A person in a solid red state isn't going to change anything either.
In reality, it's likely that the only people that will truly matter in 2008 are those in Ohio and Florida.
I understand where you are coming from. It sounds insane at first but you have a point. I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum as you as I care nothing about social conservative issues and am a liberty and small government voter. I may face the same delima.
Right now, if it is someone like McCain or Rudy I'm voting Libertarian.
I don't see how any conservative could vote for Rudy as he is offensive to both social conservatives and liberty voters. The only people I could see voting for him and party loyalists and law and order conservatives.
Not so sure about that. If Rudy is somewhat politically equivalent to Arnie, he might be able to take states like California.
Ultimately, for many people, this election will come down to who will stand firm on the WoT. If a Dem is elected, not only will cherished conservative principles not be advanced, we'll have to deal with a whole raft of liberal policies, including a retreat on the WoT.
Good work Spiff - run it again and again and again.
The Giulianistas are trying VERY hard to publicize this phoney on this forum.
Duncan Hunter is the best conservative in the race!!!
I see what you're saying but California is solidly in the blue column in national elections. For governorships states are a lot more open minded. Even NY and Massachusetts will elect republicans for governors.
I'm pro-2nd amendment, but the government has far more guns than the citizens do. Try to out fight the police and the feds and you will just get cut down.
It's always puzzled me how pro-2nd amendment voters favor arming the police and feds to such a such a degree. All it does it make the the 2nd amendment useless for anything but hunting.
Food for thought, certainly. Nonetheless it provides a disincentive as, if that horror ever did come to pass, it would not prove a pleasant experience for them in the form of property damage and potential casualty.
How about that Haitian "immigrant" with the plunger deal?
The biggest difference between Rino Rudy and Hitlery is he looks better in a dress. If he is nominated I will be one of many going third party.
The sad truth of it RIno Rudy will lose for two reasons. One he will split the party and many evangelicals adn social conservatives will either stay home or go third party. And historically when the middle is given a choice between a liberal republican and a liberal dem they take the dem.
Me, too. I think Rudy is the the only one who could beat Her Heinous....Good Grief, what a fate that would be..............
Well seeing that the country is in such great shape with the dims in charge now. All that stayed home in this last election standing on priciple have done a fine upstanding job of getting us in a world of hurt, and further more a troops in a world of hurt and demoralization. So standing so much on princple to the point that you loose has always been something i've hated about the republican party. Its called cutting off your nose to spite your face. Do i like all his policies, no. But, I believe Rudy is the ONLY person running that can beat hillary.
So yeah i'm all about winning. Social issues should be secondary to who is going to keep us safe, and be fiscally responsible. If there is no country, then what do all the social issues matter anyway.
It was in 2004 for the Dems. They somehow chose Kerry because they thought with his Vietnam War experience, he was the logical choice to run in a wartime election.
They failed to realize that what he did AFTER the war would sink him.
Now, a year before the first primary, we have people claiming their guy is electable, without looking at the baggage that candidate carries that will sink him.
"There's absolutely no way a bunch of farmers could possibly beat the British Army."
L
You realize that the owner of this site is a "Keyester", right?
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