I think there are a lot of Cuban expats ready to fight. I think it will be every bit as hard a Iraq. Substitute communists for Bathists.
Well, that's a good illustration of our dilemma: the last thing we need is a bunch of Cuban Chalabis operating a para-military force; if they (or we) end up fighting a Cuban Civil war - even a short one - it will be Prima facie evidence of US foreign policy incompetence. A portion of the exile community is interested in settling scores via "victor's justice", immediately reclaiming expropriated property and a lot of of things that would be politically destabilizing during political transition, the overiding US priority is establishing a stable transitional government that forms the basis for a durable political arrangements friendly to the US. From the standpoint of our long term strategic interests we need to keep tight control over the exile community during whatever kind of transition occurs, but there will be enormous domestic political pressure to allow then an independent role.