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Is the Surge Already Producing Results?
Real Clear Politics ^ | January 23, 2007 | Jack Kelly

Posted on 01/23/2007 5:55:31 PM PST by Clintonfatigued

Three interesting things have happened since President Bush announced plans to "surge" U.S. troops.

First, al Qaida appears to be retreating from Baghdad. A military intelligence officer has confirmed to Richard Miniter, editor of Pajamas Media, a report in the Iraqi newspaper al Sabah that Abu Ayyub al Masri, the head of al Qaida in Iraq, has ordered a withdrawal to Diyala province, north and east of Baghdad.

Mr. al Masri's evacuation order said that remaining in Baghdad is a no-win situation for al Qaida, because the Fallujah campaign demonstrating the Americans have learned how to prevail in house to house fighting, Mr. Miniter said.

"In more than 10 years of reading al Qaida intercepts, I've never seen (pessimistic) language like this," he quoted his intelligence officer source as saying.

Second, the radical cleric Moqtada al Sadr, whose Iranian-subsidized militia, the Mahdi army, is responsible for most of the assaults on Sunni civilians in Iraq, is cooling his rhetoric and lowering his profile.

"Mahdi army militia members have stopped wearing their black uniforms, hidden their weapons and abandoned their checkpoints in an apparent effort to lower their profile in Baghdad in advance of the arrival of U.S. reinforcements," wrote Leila Fadel and Zaineb Obeid of the McClatchy Newspapers Jan. 13.

Third, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki is putting more distance between himself and al Sadr, upon whose bloc of votes in parliament he had relied for political support.

Last Friday al Sadr ordered the 30 lawmakers and six cabinet ministers he controls to end the boycott of the government he ordered two months ago. AP writer Steven Hurst described this Monday as "a desperate bid to fend off an all out American offensive."

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: almalikisurge; iraq; iraqwar; surge
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1 posted on 01/23/2007 5:55:31 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
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To: SJackson; Alouette; wagglebee; SandRat; river rat; Navy Patriot; Salem; Fred Nerks

This is surprising and encouraging news.


2 posted on 01/23/2007 5:56:38 PM PST by Clintonfatigued ("Appointing Earl Warren was the biggest damn fool thing I ever did." Dwight D. Eisenhower)
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To: Clintonfatigued; 91B; HiJinx; Spiff; MJY1288; xzins; Calpernia; clintonh8r; TEXOKIE; windchime; ...

Interesting


3 posted on 01/23/2007 5:57:55 PM PST by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country. What else needs to be said?)
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To: Clintonfatigued; jmc1969

If we'd done this two or three years ago, maybe we wouldn't have lost control of Congress.


4 posted on 01/23/2007 5:58:20 PM PST by Paleo Conservative
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To: Clintonfatigued

Encouraging news.


5 posted on 01/23/2007 6:00:11 PM PST by unkus
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To: Paleo Conservative; A. Pole; California Patriot; neverdem; fieldmarshaldj

You make a very good point.


6 posted on 01/23/2007 6:01:38 PM PST by Clintonfatigued ("Appointing Earl Warren was the biggest damn fool thing I ever did." Dwight D. Eisenhower)
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To: SandRat

Keep up the "skeer"


7 posted on 01/23/2007 6:05:18 PM PST by TADSLOS (Iran is in the IED exporting business. Time to shut them down.)
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To: Paleo Conservative

No. If Congress had closed the southern border, deported illegal immigrants, and President Bush had not called border protectors "vigilanties", then the Republicans would not have lost control of congress. I voted with my nose pinched, unfortunately for the Republicans and the country, many conservatives couldn't stomach that. Where have my conservates gone?


8 posted on 01/23/2007 6:06:17 PM PST by FreeAtlanta (Search for Folding Project - Join FR Team 36120)
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To: Clintonfatigued
Not surprising, totally expected, and TOTALLY reversible once the Terrorists realize that the dems (and some republicans) are already trying to defeat the policy.
9 posted on 01/23/2007 6:09:57 PM PST by FreedomNeocon (Success is not final; Failure is not fatal; it is the courage to continue that counts -- Churchill)
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To: Clintonfatigued

They plan on waiting us out.


10 posted on 01/23/2007 6:09:59 PM PST by saganite (Billions and billions and billions-------and that's just the NASA budget!)
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To: Clintonfatigued

It's awfully easy to be a Monday morning quarterback. But I also think we should have been doing this sooner. Clamp down on the Saddamite AND the Sadrites. The longer you do it, the better it works. The problem is that they will come back if this only goes on for a limited time.

I also think we should have gone into Syria a couple of years ago, and blocked the border with Iran more thoroughly.

Maybe this is right, maybe it's wrong. What I do know is that if you fight a war, you have to have a plan to win it. And if conditions change, as they did after the fall of Baghdad, you have to change the plan. The worst thing you can do is fight a war with restrictive rules of engagement, because you're worried what the press will say.

They said it anyway.


11 posted on 01/23/2007 6:10:05 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: saganite

Agreed, they are waiting us out and I'm sure our leaders know that.

Isn't there a plan to share the oil revenues among the Iraqi's and to do some other things to right the ship? Maybe such steps will change the culture somewhat so that the "insurgency" is less than it otherwise would be.


12 posted on 01/23/2007 6:19:30 PM PST by Loyal Buckeye
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To: Clintonfatigued

I made some of the same points the other day when I disputed a naysayers nay-saying. To the lessons of Fallujah that must have been painfully obvious to al Qaeda, they were also soundly whipped in a nearly untold battle in Tall Afar (untold thanks to Katrina; hence, Bush's fault). In that battle, the US Army proved itself able to fight in an urban environment without taking high casualties. Also, al Sadr's bullies have been beaten previously in Najaf. However, there was no PR advantage in these victories for the US, and the insurgents stayed seemingly undefeated because of the battles and the victories were largely unknown and unreported. In Baghdad, their coming defeat will be impossible to ignore.


13 posted on 01/23/2007 6:23:53 PM PST by elhombrelibre (After 9/11, Bush went to war with terrorists and their supporters. Democrats war against him.)
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To: saganite

NOW is the time to stike Al Sadar, and Alqueada/Iranian agents in IRAQ, Now I say while we have them on the run (if prayerfully we do!)..


14 posted on 01/23/2007 6:37:09 PM PST by JSDude1 ((www.pence08.com).)
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To: Paleo Conservative

"If we'd done this two or three years ago, maybe we wouldn't have lost control of Congress."

Nope, nope, nope... we had to let Political Correctness kill SH*TLOADS of people first.


15 posted on 01/23/2007 6:38:05 PM PST by navyguy (We don't need more youth. What we need is a fountain of SMART.)
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To: Cicero

I agree, ++


16 posted on 01/23/2007 6:39:51 PM PST by JSDude1 ((www.pence08.com).)
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To: Clintonfatigued
Last Friday al Sadr ordered the 30 lawmakers and six cabinet ministers he controls to end the boycott of the government he ordered two months ago.

Sounds liek 36 people who ought to be jailed.

17 posted on 01/23/2007 6:43:22 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants (G-d is not a Republican. But Satan is definitely a Democrat.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

related:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1772575/posts

Military: Mahdi Army weakened


18 posted on 01/23/2007 6:55:08 PM PST by Fred Nerks (Read THE LIFE OF MUHAMMAD free pdf download. Link on my bio page.)
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To: Paleo Conservative
"If we'd done this two or three years ago, maybe we wouldn't have lost control of Congress."

That's right, I believe that wholeheartedly.

One of my greatest concerns regarding the WOT is that we are a nation that reacts after the fact rather than dealing with threats forcefully and decisively like we are finally doing in Iraq. The WOT can't be fought by reacting, is must be fought pro-actively, if it isn't thousands (more), if not millions, of lives will be lost right here on our soil.
19 posted on 01/23/2007 7:05:59 PM PST by dmw (Aren't you glad you use common sense, don't you wish everybody did?)
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To: Clintonfatigued

I want to see a lot more bodies. If they're just going to melt into the woodwork and we can't lay our hands on them then what's the point? These people have to be killed.


20 posted on 01/23/2007 7:06:08 PM PST by Mr. Peabody
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