Officials concerned about Chinese debris in space

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Trash from China's satellite-killing missile test has spread widely in space, creating a debris cloud that could jeopardize spy satellites and commercial imagery satellites in low orbits around Earth, U.S. officials said on Monday.

Even the manned International Space Station is vulnerable to being hit by some of the thousands of pieces of trash created when China slammed a ground-based medium-range ballistic missile into an aging Chinese weather satellite about 537 miles above Earth on January 11, the officials said.

"The test created a lot of debris. It definitely raises the possibility that something is going to be hit, including the space station," Peter Hays, a senior adviser to the Pentagon's National Security Space Office, told Reuters.

Theresa Hitchens, who heads the non-profit Center for Defense Information, told a conference held by the George C. Marshall Institute that U.S. tracking data showed debris from the test had been seen from 266 miles to 1,875 miles above the Earth.

"A huge number of satellites have been put in harm's way," she said, estimating that more than 120 satellites were orbiting in the area. It could take decades for debris from the Chinese weather satellite to fall out of orbit.

GeoEye, the world's largest commercial satellite imagery company, operates its satellites around 425 miles (680 km) above Earth, but said it was not concerned because its satellites were in a different orbit. GeoEye spokesman Mark Brender said it can maneuver satellites in their orbits and "close their lens caps" during cosmic dust storms.

Col. Patrick Rayermann, chief of the U.S. Army's Space and Missile Defense Division, told Reuters the Chinese test had reenergized discussions about the need for a treaty or certain rules for actions taken by space-faring countries. However, he added that verifying compliance could prove difficult.

"What anybody does in space has ramifications for all users in space," Rayermann said.

An increasing number of countries are operating satellites, including Nigeria, India and Iran. Hitchens said that expansion raised the "specter of chaos" and underscored the need for a system of regulating their actions.

No current international treaties or agreements prohibit anti-satellite tests, although the last one was conducted by the United States in September 1985, officials said.

However, a 1967 global Outer Space Treaty does require notification of maneuvers in space, and holds countries liable for their actions, which means commercial operators could sue China for damages if their satellite was hit by debris.

The U.N. Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space is due to sign a new voluntary agreement to mitigate the creation of space debris at a meeting in Vienna next month.

Philip Meek, associate general counsel for the U.S. Air Force and an expert on space law, said Washington was reluctant to sign any rules or agreements because it had an "asymmetric advantage" in space and had more to lose than other nations.

Meek and Hays both said satellites were vulnerable to attack and anti-satellite technologies were more suited to offensive attacks than defending existing satellites.

Instead, Hays said Washington needed to revamp its approach and create a space architecture with more redundant satellites, including commercial ones, that made the overall system less vulnerable to attacks on individual spacecraft.

He also called for increased spending on space systems, but conceded big gains were unlikely given the war in Iraq.

China rejects space arms race fears

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By Rich Bowden Jan 22, 2007, 21:59 GMT

Chinese soldiers march past a rocket on display outside their barracks in central Beijing, China, on January 21, 2007 China has come under growing pressure to explain the shooting-down of a satellite as condemnation continued to pour in from around the globe. (UPI Photo/Stephen Shaver)

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From Monsters and Critics.com

Asia-Pacific Features
China rejects space arms race fears
By Rich Bowden
Jan 22, 2007, 21:59 GMT

Beijing has rejected international criticism of its first reported anti-satellite test in 20 years, playing down suggestions of a new space arms race.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao declined to confirm or deny the inci-dent when asked by reporters, or comment on media reports based on US intelligence.

“I can’t say anything about the reports. I really don’t know; I’ve only seen the foreign reports,” he said to the Reuters news agency.

“What I can say is that, as a matter of principle, China advocates the peaceful use of space and opposes the weaponisation of space, and also opposes any form of arms race,” he said.

US experts allege China tested a ground based anti-satellite ballistic missile (ASAT) on January 11 by destroying an obsolete orbiting weather satellite. Washington says the test will not only signal a dangerous new escalation in space weaponry, but also endanger ex-isting satellites with the debris caused by the explosion.

US Senator Joe Biden, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has de-scribed China’s test as ‘provocative’ saying any escalation of space armoury was an un-desirable act.

Speaking on the Fox News channel Senator Biden said though he didn’t believe “we should be overly worried about [the Chinese test] at this point,” he also added any escala-tion of space weaponry was “not the direction we want to go.”

According to US intelligence, the launch of the ASAT occurred close to the Xichang Space Launch Centre (XSPL), around 64 kilometres northwest of Xichang City in the Chinese province of Sichuan on January 11. China carried out the interception of the Feng Yun (FY-1C) weather satellite using kinetic kill technology, the sophisticated last stage of a satellite interceptor weapon.

Other countries (such as the US and Russia) have conducted anti-satellite tests as part of their defence systems testing in the past, however both of these countries are believed to have ceased such testing because of the danger presented to other satellites.

Countries including the US, Canada, and Australia have protested vigorously to the Chi-nese Government over the testing of the ASAT because the interception occurred without notification. The lack of warning has put other satellites orbiting in the same region in grave danger.

Around half of the 400,000 fragments created by the explosion of the satellite 870 kilo-metres above the earth would remain in orbit for more than a decade, according to David Wright, of the Union of Concerned Scientists based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

“This satellite was maybe 3/4 of a ton in mass,” Wright says. “And it would have thrown off about 2 million pieces that were bigger than a millimetre in size. Sounds pretty small but at speed going a millimetre object could be deadly,” he said to NPR.

The Battle for Control

China’s apparently successful testing of its ASAT missile and rapidly developing military arsenal has highlighted its emergence as an technologically advanced military power ca-pable of challenging the United States in any emerging regional conflict. China’s explo-sive economic growth -- the economy has increased tenfold since 1978 according to offi-cial figures¬ - ¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬ has allowed it to finance its increase in expenditure on its military, an-nounced last March to be $US35.3 billion - an increase by 14.7 per cent.

With the exception of occasional bellicose statements over the disputed territory of Tai-wan, China’s leaders have generally avoided confrontations with other powers in recent years. Portraying itself as a benign regional power, Beijing has insisted that (unlike rivals such as the United States) it is not a threat to its regional neighbours.

However, some experts are describing the successful ASAT testing the beginning of a new, more precarious phase in China’s relationship with the United States and the US’s allies in the Asia Pacific region.

“If this (testing) is fully corroborated, it is a very significant event that is likely to recast relations between the US and China,” said a former Australian defence official, Allan Behm to the New York Times.

"This was a very sophisticated thing to do, and the willingness to do it means that we're seeing a different level of threat.”

China’s flexing of its military muscle has caused a general sense of unease amongst its regional neighbours already concerned about Chinese domination of the Asia Pacific re-gion. Having already accepted Chinese economic hegemony as a reality, Asia Pacific countries who enjoy close relations with the United States - such as Japan, South Korea and Australia - have demonstrated their nervousness over China’s seemingly unstoppable rise as a military power.

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, speaking to Reuters, while describing the relationship between China and the US as difficult, expressed some optimism for the future.

“I think there will always be difficulty in (the US) relationship with China,” Downer told Reuters in an interview. “But there’s no need to exaggerate dangers of a rising China. A rising China isn’t necessarily a danger to America.”

“In the medium term, not in the short term, America should be optimistic about its rela-tionship with China. It is potentially a good relationship and they should work on it, de-spite the less than ideal political system in China.”

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