Scientists fear they've oversold global warming

Houston Chronicle ^ | 1-22-07 | Eric Berger

[Darnright]

>As public debate deals in absolutes, some experts fear predictions 'have created a monster'<

That's the most truthful thing I've heard about global warming in the media.

[Sgt_Schultze]

I can't get a reliable forecast more than 72 hours out, much less 50-100 years into the future.

There's good reason for that. In 72 hours the predictors can be called to task for their inaccuracies. In 50 - 100 years, their detractors will be long gone.

[A. Pole]

I trust private enterprise more than I trust the Asian contributors to the Algore Campaign.

These "Asian contributors" ARE private enterprise. No, science in order to survive has to based on pursuit of truth for its own sake.

[discostu]

With 2 inches of snow on the ground in Tucson I know there's more than a few blame America first liberals that have just lost their global warming religion.

[Ghost of Philip Marlowe]

Ha. Funny.

"Over selling" implies a mutually agreed upon transaction was taking place.

The idiot on the weather channel said meteorologists that didn't agree with her views on global warming should have their certification revoked.

Hardly a "selling" and more like the mandate of an oppressive regime.

[Thermalseeker]

There's good reason for that. In 72 hours the predictors can be called to task for their inaccuracies. In 50 - 100 years, their detractors will be long gone.

All the more reason we shouldn't listen to the Chicken Little's of Meteorology like Dr. Heidi Cullen. She and others like her can no more predict the weather next week than they can in 2060 and she knows it. That is why the seek to silence their critics. We need only look as far as the '06 hurricane season for a glaring example of how poorly weather forecasting really is.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

The Asian contributors were & are the Red Chinese Army.

[Colorado Mike]

"Why is it that the Little Ice Age coincided with a period where there were no sunspots?"

Good question. We are about to enter another sunspot minimum period (200 year cycle) so stock up on long johns...

And if you ever get into a discussion with a true beliver, throw the Malankovitch cycles at them (Earths rotational progression) and how the usual warming/cooling ice core samples match them almost to perfection.

[The Mayor]

Ya think?

[LiteKeeper]

Yuppers - ya think?

[Pete]

Problem is, global warming may not have caused Hurricane Katrina,

May not have? Katrina was a Cat 3 when it hit. Not particularly unusual. So now Cat 3's are might be attributed to global warming? In all the hype, the climate-crazies forget that it was the location that caused all the damage, not the strength.

[beckysueb]

No $*#t, Sherlock!

[beckysueb]

OMG! That is hilarious!

[Sword_Svalbardt]

Ping!

[JTHomes]

I confess ignorance. Please tell me how ice is going to melt at the south pole?

South Pole Temps

[7jason]

The climate IS warming (following the same sinusoidal curve that made Greenland green a thousand years ago) but a) greenhouse gases have very little to do with the change b) We produce about 5% of the CO2, but CO2 is a minor, not a major greenhouse gas - in effect, only 1/400 of the climate-change due to greenhouse gases is due to human activity, and the greenhouse-gas contribution to climate change is pretty small anyway.

Yup. 1 major volcanic eruption = worldwide cooling for about a year.

[Tzimisce]

No one can conclusively demonstrate the globe is warming.

[EEDUDE]

Anyone that has ever seriously worked with computer modeling of even well understood phenomena knows how EASY it is to change something small and end up with things that don't converge.

I simply cannot believe that we understand THAT much about all the second, third, fourth or tenth order effects that will eventually determine the outcome.

Using some relatively simple modeling I can prove to you that many of the laws of physics are incorrect.

In fact I've done it many times!(grin)

[LachlanMinnesota]

Issue 1: Is there a warming global climate?

Issue 2: Does the human race contribute to that warming (or cooling)?

Issue 3: What is the mechanism of that contribution, if there is?

Issue 4: What is the extent of that contribution?

Issue 5: What portions of human contributions are under our control?

Issue 6: What is the cost in time, energy and resources to change those portions of behavior that we can control?

Issue 7: Is there are positive benefits of a change in the global climate?

Issue 8: Do the positive benefits of the changes in global climate outweigh the negative effects?

Issue 9: Should we try to make the world's climate become static, when it never has been?

IMHO, we are still on issues one, two and three...

[Yelling]

in effect, only 1/400 of the climate-change due to greenhouse gases is due to human activity,

Do you have a reference for this?