The Man Spoiling For A Fight With America And Its 'Empire Of Evil' (Chavez)

In his eight years in power Hugo Chávez has succeeded Fidel Castro as the cheerleader of anti-Yanquism south of the Rio Grande and with a third presidential electoral victory under his belt he is promising a new era of radical socialism.

Judging from this month's inaugural ceremonies, the impact will first be felt domestically. The Venezuelan president plans to nationalise the electricity and telecommunications industries, shut down the largest opposition-run television channel, curb the powers of state governors and mayors and lift the ban on the indefinite re-election of the head of state.

President Chávez's radical plans include nationalising the electricity and telecommunications industries

Last week the National Assembly, a body totally dominated by Mr Chávez since the opposition boycotted the 2005 parliamentary election, voted unanimously to allow him to rule by decree for 18 months.

Whatever else the new era brings, it promises a remorseless accumulation of presidential powers.

Greater radicalism at home suggests an even more interventionist policy overseas. Mr Chávez has named his revolution after Simón Bolívar, leader of the 19th century independence struggle against Spain in half a dozen Latin American countries. He wants to export his Bolivarian ideals across the continent, and beyond, in defiance of what he sees as the neo-liberal "empire" of the United States.

As part of this campaign, he insults his opponents in terms which make headlines across the world.

George W Bush is a "devil"; his Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, a "complete illiterate"; Alan García, the Peruvian president, a "thief"; his predecessor, Alejandro Toledo, a "crocodile from the swamps"; Vicente Fox, the previous Mexican president, a "puppy dog of the [American] empire"; José Miguel Insulza, secretary-general of the Organisation of American States, an "idiot" acting like a "viceroy of the empire".

Mr Chávez's verbal abuse of his enemies is accompanied by financial support of his friends, largesse made possible by the steep rise in oil prices. The world's fifth largest oil producer has spent an estimated $25 billion overseas since 1999.

His closest allies are Cuba, Bolivia, Nicaragua and Ecuador – the first two are members of the Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas, a would-be rival to the stalled Washington-backed Free Trade Area of the Americas.

Cuba: In return for 53,000 barrels per day of discounted oil, rising to 90,000, Cuba will train 40,000 Venezuelan doctors and 10,000 teachers.

Bolivia: In support of President Evo Morales' decision to nationalise the natural gas fields, the two governments have created Petroandina Gas and have agreed to build two gas-processing plants in Bolivia at a cost of $170 million.

Mr Chávez is providing $49 million of defence funding, reportedly for the construction of 20 military bases along Bolivia's borders. Around 30 Venezuelan military officials arrived in Bolivia in December and are, according to the Bolivian defence minister Walker San Miguel, helping to pilot and maintain two Super Puma helicopters Venezuela has provided to transport Mr Morales within Bolivia.

Nicaragua: To help Daniel Ortega return to power, Venezuela sent cut-price fertiliser to Sandinista-affiliated co-operatives and undertook to ship 350,000 barrels of diesel oil at a 40 per cent discount, to be made up over 25 years at a one per cent interest rate.

Ecuador: The new government of the "Left-wing Christian humanist" Rafael Correa has spoken of receiving credits of up to $1 billion from Venezuela.

Mr Chávez has also agreed to refine 100,000 barrels of Ecuadorian crude per day in exchange for diesel. Mr Correa has said he will not sign a free trade treaty with America and has promised to close the American air base at Manta on the Pacific coast when the lease expires in 2009.

Venezuela has also helped Néstor Kirchner, Argentina's Left-wing populist president, restructure the national debt by buying $3 billion worth of bonds. The Argentines could also eventually benefit from a gas pipeline deal signed last week by Venezuela and Brazil.

In the Caribbean, Caracas is supplying crude and petroleum products on concessional terms to 13 members of the Caricom community.

Further afield, it has announced plans to set up a $2 billion investment fund with Iran to help developing countries "liberate themselves from US imperialism", has bought 24 fixed-wing aircraft and 53 helicopters from Russia, and has increased oil co-operation with China – one of a series of agreements which, in Mr Chávez's words, constitutes a "Great Wall" against American hegemony.

This multi-dimensional petro-diplomacy is enough to worry Washington and its allies.

But the crude rhetoric of the Venezuelan leader should not blind them to the fact that his real successes in Latin America have been confined to some of its smallest and poorest nations.

Mexico has elected another conservative leader in Felipe Calderón and Brazil is continuing to follow a moderate Socialist programme under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Mr Chávez is more a gadfly than a serious threat to continental stability. And his rhetoric – he now calls himself a communist – far outruns his actions, which so far have been cannily pragmatic.

Since the invasion of Iraq, Washington has been an easy target. Whoever succeeds Mr Bush should be able to make up ground lost in Latin America over the past four years.

I think my estimate is conservative actually. Since the 86 amnesty the government itself has estimated that some 10,000 crossed the border each day since then. I suspect the number is much higher, but let's just say that 10,000 is about right. That comes to about 3.6 million a year in my book. Over a period of 20 years that comes to well over 60 million. That is not counting all those that come in on visas and overstay. We can count those because we know they haven't left. The government of course will not tell you it's 60 million. They have been throwing around the 11 to 12 million number for the last ten years. Do they think we're stupid? no one has come to add to that number in the last ten years? I think you know the answer to that. The government would be stupid to declare a higher number. The lower the number they throw out the smaller the problem seems. I did stay that day they taught multiplication in second grade.

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