Posted on 01/19/2007 2:44:28 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks
Commodities expert Jim Rogers says that, while he can't pinpoint the exact timeframe, oil will reach $100 a barrel after a "correction." Readers will remember that Rogers predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.
"I'm just not smart enough to know how far down it will go and how long it will stay, but I do know that within the context of the bull market, oil will go over $100," Rogers said in a Tokyo interview. "It will go over $150. Whether that is in 2009 or 2013, I don't have a clue, but I know it's going to happen."
Currently, MoneyNews' sister publication Financial Intelligence Report is forecasting that oil will fall to as low as $40 a barrel.
Crude oil has fallen as much as 36.4 percent to a 20-month low since hitting a peak of $78.40 a barrel in mid July. Crude dropped to a low of $49.90 a barrel yesterday and has since rebounded to around $52 today. A 20 percent decline generally indicates a bear market.
But Rogers says the fundamentals for $100 a barrel oil are still very much alive. There hasn't been a major oil discovery in 30 years and economic growth in China and other Asian countries is boosting demand for oil, he says.
Rogers says the current correction in oil prices is to be expected.
"When you have big bull markets, 50 percent corrections, or retractions, are normal," he said in an interview yesterday. "It has often happened throughout history in a bull market."
Rogers pointed out that the gold bull market in the 1970s experienced a two-year correction before resuming.
"Corrections go down long enough to scare everybody out and make sure they give up, and then they turn around," he said. "We are in a secular bull market for commodities which has another decade or two to go."
On a side note, Rogers also revealed that he's holding airline shares, a strange investment given his prediction that oil will rebound to $100 a barrel. But the move is paying off.
"The only airline where I'm losing money in the last year is Japan Airlines," said Rogers.
Financial Intelligence Report, in its latest edition of "The Four Ways to Profit from the Oil Bust of 2007," recommends our favorite airline stock. To get your free copy, go here now.
© NewsMax 2007. All rights reserved.
Since FedGov has grabbed so much regulatory power they must accept responsibility whichever way it goes. I sense a tipping point, but not an Algore tipping point. Nevertheless, we are not in crisis right now and ought to be making up for the last thirty wasted years of not building nukes and modern coal plants. We might make it or not; doing nothing would tend to the latter outcome.
I thought Mr Rogers was dead?
Rodger's has gone kooky! By 2013, there will be so many alternate energy items coming on line heavily. Bio fuels, ethanol, oil sands, new drilling, etc., etc.
Unfortunately now that the idiot has said it, it becomes an excuse to do so.
World oil production in the major oil producing regions was down last year for the first time ever. Reserves, especially Saudi, were inflated in the effort to drive the USSR into extinction. That worked, but inflated reserves, which drive up company value, have to deflate back to reality eventually, and that appears to be now. The major new finds aren't really that major and only back off Peak Oil two months.
Uh oh. It sounds like someone read "Guns, Germs, and Steel". I thought I was the only freeper who had.
No, everything I know I learned from Art Bell.
I've heard that theory. I dismiss it.
It's the only thing I ever heard on Art Bell that I found unsettling, Corsi notwithstanding.
"I'm just not smart enough to know how far down it will go and how long it will stay, but I do know that within the context of the bull market, oil will go over $100," Rogers said in a Tokyo interview. "It will go over $150. Whether that is in 2009 or 2013, I don't have a clue, but I know it's going to happen."
Wow!!!!! what a prediction. I can predict the same open ended BS and not be wrong either (my prediction is by 2180 though). If congress doesn't meddle too much, and if the hedge funds don't meddle too much though, he'll be way wrong before 2013.
"By 2050 world oil production will be 10-20% of what it is now"
By yours, and who else's reckoning?
I report. Words drift through the air and I take note, usually from the radio. You never hear this stuff on TV. A word here, a word there, and a picture begins to take shape. I do not make stuff up; somebody else runs that department.
"The USA has had 30 years and more to develop a different power infrastructure without pain. Nothing has been done, although there have been some interesting coal plant experiments at Dept of Energy. It's simply too late and we are going off the cliff at top speed some time in the next seven years"
The price of oil dropped so low in 1982 the USA all but stopped drilling and exploration for oil. The environmental crowd managed to make any promising areas off limits in the ensuing years (go figure). The oil companies and the country at large are being ham-strung by idiots. There is no need for any of this snake oil "alternate energy" at break neck speed BS. We have enormous alternates at the right price (alcohol from corn or sugar cane isn't one of them) Coal is our ace in the hole, and deep water drilling. It just needs to be opened up
"World oil production in the major oil producing regions was down last year for the first time ever. Reserves, especially Saudi, were inflated in the effort to drive the USSR into extinction. That worked, but inflated reserves, which drive up company value, have to deflate back to reality eventually, and that appears to be now. The major new finds aren't really that major and only back off Peak Oil two months"
Did you hear that from the George Noory show?
My plan, which could have been implemented 30 years ago, 20 years ago, and even 10 years ago although it would be getting close to the deadline, is space development. It would take all the pressure off the energy industry worldwide as well as lead to national and world economic growth that most would simply not believe. Who knows, it might not be too late. We should at least repeal the Treaty.
Do you listen to Coast? They had an excellent philosopher on last night.
May I disagree with you on that. He is talking about commodities, something of which you problably know little. Not meaning to be nasty, just observing, so be sure to tell me if I am wrong, OK.
Now in the commodities business, he is something of an icon. He rode a Harley across China AND Russia with his girlfriend quite few years ago, which it just amazing knowing the conditions at that time. He doesn't invest in companies, he invests in COUNTRYS. He could probably write a check that would bounce your BANK. And you call him an idiot? I'm sorry, but did you even -think- before you posted that?
Jim Rogers is largely correct... in 2003 nickel was $3.00 per pound... today it was $17.55 per pound... commodities are on the rise and the only index that I have seen rise more than nickel is the Iraq currency... it is interesting to watch and to me it indicates that things are going a lot better over there than the ^&*(^$* press and the democrats are wanting us to believe!
Rogers is like many of these guys. I'll give him credit for running his fund, but guys like him make a living making constant 'predictions' on all sorts of topics, then writing about the ones that come close.
He's also the NYT poster boy for teach-your-kid-Mandarin-because-China-is-going-to-rule-the-world stories. (He's been in at least two different NYT pieces on the topic, one of which didn't even identify him beyond his name.)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.