Posted on 01/19/2007 2:44:28 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks
Commodities expert Jim Rogers says that, while he can't pinpoint the exact timeframe, oil will reach $100 a barrel after a "correction." Readers will remember that Rogers predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.
"I'm just not smart enough to know how far down it will go and how long it will stay, but I do know that within the context of the bull market, oil will go over $100," Rogers said in a Tokyo interview. "It will go over $150. Whether that is in 2009 or 2013, I don't have a clue, but I know it's going to happen."
Currently, MoneyNews' sister publication Financial Intelligence Report is forecasting that oil will fall to as low as $40 a barrel.
Crude oil has fallen as much as 36.4 percent to a 20-month low since hitting a peak of $78.40 a barrel in mid July. Crude dropped to a low of $49.90 a barrel yesterday and has since rebounded to around $52 today. A 20 percent decline generally indicates a bear market.
But Rogers says the fundamentals for $100 a barrel oil are still very much alive. There hasn't been a major oil discovery in 30 years and economic growth in China and other Asian countries is boosting demand for oil, he says.
Rogers says the current correction in oil prices is to be expected.
"When you have big bull markets, 50 percent corrections, or retractions, are normal," he said in an interview yesterday. "It has often happened throughout history in a bull market."
Rogers pointed out that the gold bull market in the 1970s experienced a two-year correction before resuming.
"Corrections go down long enough to scare everybody out and make sure they give up, and then they turn around," he said. "We are in a secular bull market for commodities which has another decade or two to go."
On a side note, Rogers also revealed that he's holding airline shares, a strange investment given his prediction that oil will rebound to $100 a barrel. But the move is paying off.
"The only airline where I'm losing money in the last year is Japan Airlines," said Rogers.
Financial Intelligence Report, in its latest edition of "The Four Ways to Profit from the Oil Bust of 2007," recommends our favorite airline stock. To get your free copy, go here now.
© NewsMax 2007. All rights reserved.
I used to know a commodities trader who had a vanity plate on his Jag that said $100 oil. That was TWENTY YEARS ago! It hasn't gotten there yet. I just wish that thsi nation would get serious about harvesting our oil reserves. That is the best thing to keep the price down.
We have got to find another source of energy and soon. This is one of our biggest national security risks in my opinion. It's also apparently one of our biggest economic security risks as well.
We either need to take the oil fields in the middle east by force if necessary, massive exploration in our own lands, or find another source. Something must be done! Finding another source is the best long term solution. Continuing to rely on oil, and expanding exploration or taking oil fields would only be a relative short term solution in the grand scheme of things.
Have we all here forgotten about inflation? It could drive oil that high.
My thoughts exactly.
I thought he was on MASH....LOL.
Probably a damn crook. He's an idiot.
This is like the Liberals trying to predict what the Earth is going to do (global warming) Nobody knows. There are just to many factors.
This isn't prognostication, this is inflation. When he produces a date then I'll take this seriously.
Brilliant, I'm convinced.
The USA has had 30 years and more to develop a different power infrastructure without pain. Nothing has been done, although there have been some interesting coal plant experiments at Dept of Energy. It's simply too late and we are going off the cliff at top speed some time in the next seven years.
Surely you jest.
That's who I thought too! That's Wayne Rogers, who now appears on Fox doing investment stuff though as well!.
I predict that there will be a major hurricane on the Gulf Coast. I also predict that my prediction is more accurate than his.
Yes it is, especially when you don't specify a time frame. Say 10,20,30 years from now, . . . . .
And Washington DC seems to be sleeping at the wheel. Both parties are to blame in this regard, especially the democrats. This energy issue could be worse than Socialist Security going to hell as far as impact on the country in the way it will hit us fast and very hard.
Perhaps. There was a philosopher who could not leave his hut without laughing all the time at everybody. There was another who could do nothing but scowl, even at children, no matter what. I do believe world oil production will be 10-20% of what it is now by 2050, although the price might stay right where it is. Got to admit there is a lot laughable these days.
Well, my sources tell me we've barely scratched the surface of oil on this planet. These are oil guys talking, but I'll give them the BOTD over the alarmists and enviroweenies.
If only he could pinpoint the time frame of the Pelosi tax revolution he would have the time frame in nanoseconds.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.