Posted on 01/17/2007 7:55:38 AM PST by seanmerc
Political analyst Dick Morris used a baseball analogy out of season to summarize what he considers the bleak prospects for Republican victory in the 2008 presidential election.
"I think you’ll see one of the minor leaguers win it [the GOP nomination],” Morris told Fox News Channel.
Morris thinks the leading Republican candidates – Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich – are "too flawed” to win the hearts and votes of conservatives in the early primaries.
"The top four candidates for the Republican nomination can’t win,” Morris said. "Rudy Giuliani, John McCain . . . Romney with all of the flip-flops on abortion and Newt Gingrich, who I don’t think gets into it.”
That leaves a cast of lesser-known Republicans in line for a surprise run toward the nomination.
"I think that the Republican nominee is going to be one of these minor leaguers: [Tom] Tancredo, [Mike] Huckabee, [Sam] Brownback, [Jim] Gilmore from Virginia, Duncan Hunter from California,” Morris said. "It’s like the pitching rotation is all going to be injured at the World Series and the Triple –A pitching staff, one of them is going to pitch the opening game.”
Morris suggests the GOP will face Hillary Clinton in "the big game,” despite all of the buzz surrounding Sen. Barack Obama.
"Obama serves the function of keeping Al Gore out of the race,” Morris said. "He just sucks up too much of the anti-Hillary vote, but he won’t win.”
Morris said Obama’s showing in the primaries may boost Hillary to victory in the general election.
"Hillary will run a vigorous race against Obama, probably a nasty race,” he said. "She defeats him, then reaches out to African-American voters and puts Obama on as vice president.
"I have said from the very beginning, Hillary is the Democratic nominee and she is the next president of the United States.”
"Bush, Du-Cock-is. It's one f'n thing after another."
I love this. People are now supporting nobody candidates for the specific reason that they don't know much about them.
Let's pick Duncan Hunter, just as an example. The same people who would complain about people making a career of government will overlook that Duncan Hunter has been in the House for 26 years!
And he hasn't even been voted to a position of leadership out of the approximately 200 people in his own caucus.
With conservatism as strong and pervasive as it is (compared to the 50s, 60s and 70s, for example), why is it that people need a conservative leader? Lead yourself.
A Ronald Reagan (who, BTW approved a very liberal abortion bill while governor of CA, which would IMMEDIATELY disqualify him among the purists today) only comes around once in a lifetime. He managed to destroy both liberal hegemony and the Communism that supported it. I am perfectly happy with a competent president with a conservative bent.
Because I know what the alternative is.
Do you consider Duncan Hunter to be an impossible candidate?
Did Dick Morris predict the total minor leager from the back wooks of Airizona named Bill Clinton would lose to a real major leager named George H.W. Bush in 1992?
What part of Conservatives got the crap beat out of them in 2006 escapes you. Most of the House members who oppoed illegal Mexican immigration got beat. The pro balanced budget Republicans got beat.. Those that voted for conservative bills got BEATEN.
There is only one way for conservatives to win.. and they NEVER EVER FIGURE IT OUT. I have worked in many house and senate campaigns. It is always the RINOs who are out there going door to door .. working hard to elect any candidate with an R by his or her name. Only after proving how much they have done for an elected Official do RINOs ask him to vote their way.
Conservatives sit aroung complaining that once a conservative gets elected he nearly always becomes a RINO. If Conservatives got out and worked hard to elect anyone with an R after their name, they would have some clout when it comes time for that elected official to vote on a bill. The Conservatives would rather curse the darkness rather than light a fire under their own rear ends.
The reason Republican office holders vote RINO is becuase they owe their election victories to RINOs. All Repubicans get from Coservatives is angry emails, lettets, and phone calls. What they gets from RINOs is lots of help, support, and lots of hard work to keep him in office. Only after the elected official owes the RINOs big time do they request his vote.
There is no way to elect a true conservative in any of the 17 or 18 competitive states. At least 125 house members and 30 senators come from competitive states. Those are states where the moderates (Swing voters) always determine who wins. There are at least 17 states where the voters are divided into 35 percent Conservative, 35 percent Liberal and 30 percent modererats. It should not take an I.Q. larter than the average conservatives shoe size to figure out that to win in those states the winner must get his base and over half the swing voters.
But conservatives threaten every candidate who tries to get enough moderate voters to win. So the candidates just go after a larger percentage of moderates. If a candidate gets nearly all the modereates he only needs a very few conservative votes to win.
Liberals win in the competitive states by disquising their liberalism. Conservatives are reduced to defeat by their base demanding the conservative candidates be up front with their consevatism.
Here in Ohio the 2006 Republican candidate for Governor was a man named Blackwell. He made no bones about his conservatism. He went down in massive defeat to a very, very, Liberal Ted Strictland. Strictland has for decades gone to great lengths to conceal his liberalism. Strictland talks like a very moderate politician.. He votes like a very liberal one.
The last time conservatives held majorities in the Federal House and the Senate was in 1926. Yes Republicans have been in control since then, but not conservatives.
One would think conservatives might ask themselves what they are doing wrong....but they never do. So they just keep on losing... year after year.. decade after decade and now century after century.
Yes. Impossible. I am willing to bet anyone that he will not get the nomination. As much as you want. I take all comers.
Eye-opening post. We are clearly in a rut.
HAHAHA
Do you disagree with most of their positions?
Breaking: Rick Perry just threw in his hat, in a roundbout way here in Austin today. He's got the hair to win it, no matter what advice some Texans give to the contrary.
Not gonna happen.
"
Morris thinks the leading Republican candidates – Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich – are "too flawed” to win the hearts and votes of conservatives in the early primaries."
Of those Newt is the only one I would support.
Even worse, how many are Skull & Bones?
Who needs money to capture the Republican Nomination for POTUS? All you need is the support of a toe-sucking columnist and a few dozen internet posters. If that fails, run as an independent and capture 0.42% of the popular vote like Pat Buchanan.
I think Morris is right about the split between the social conservatives and the economic conservatives. Each camp will rally around one candidate. I think that Guliani and Huckabee will be the last two standing. If Guliani gets the nomination, he beats Hillary. If Huckabee gets the nomination, the race is a toss-up. Morris conveniently forgets the Hillary brings huge negatives to the table that makes her anything but an irresistable force.
The surest way to elect Hillary is for the Republicans to rip each other to shreads.
I disagree with some of what you say. A good conservative candidate, likeable and experienced, can win office in the swing states. It's not hard. But to insist "Conservative or nothing" in such states will get you a genuine liberal.
And your notion that RINOs are the only ones with boots on the ground is wrong. I think you overestimate the power of the perpetual malcontents on this forum (and elsewhere).
Remember that everybody is a RINO in their eyes. Everybody. Unless they are too far below the radar screen to be noticed, they're a RINO.
So you won't be surprised when the conservatives don't flock out to vote for a liberal GOP candidate in 2008? Just remember where the blame lies. It won't be the fault of the conservatives who won't vote against their own conscience, but
it will be the direct fault of the arrogant liberal RINOs who tossed the conservatives overboard of a sinking ship.
If Tancredo and Paul both drop out before the elections, leaving Hunter as the only conservative, couldn't you see at least a possibility of McCain, Rudy and Mitt splitting the liberal/moderate vote and Hunter pulling it off?
""I have said from the very beginning, Hillary is the Democratic nominee and she is the next president of the United States.”
"
Really doubt it. First a lot of Dems hate her too and Obama is more popular in her own party. Second a tremendous number of swing voters hate her. And third she'd do more to mobilize Conservative turnout than any other candidate in the last 50 years. I think we'd get her. She'd be the cure for a base demoralized by a decade of ineffective Republican rule in congress and frustration with the ability of a Republican Congress and White House to get anything done. The (understandable) frustration that led to conservatives staying home in droves in 06 would be reversed.
"I thoroughly distrust Morris and figure he still shills for the Clintons.
"
He is a slimebag with a poor track record of prediction who swings which ever way will get him the most attention. I pay him little mind.
If you, like me, were part of a real conspiracy, you'd realize that we can pull one string and make them dance like Baryshnikov.
Who made Steve Guttenberg a star?
Yo.
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