I was looking at the geopolitical picture, not the state of society within Russia. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (as well as many of the Warsaw Pact/Soviet satellites) are in NATO and the EU. The Central Asian 'Stans have US bases (at least for now), and pipelines are being built so their natural gas and crude oil can bypass Russia. I'm not aware of any Russian military bases outside pre-91 Soviet borders. And Russia has its hands full retaining Siberia.
Following the tripartite division into economics, culture, and sociology, one could assume a modified position of Samuel Huntington and argue for the primacy of sociology as THE fundamental civilizational determinant [and indeed claim that sociology = civilization; the marxists would argue for the primacy of economics]. On this assumption, the sociology is the only thing that matters there, and not the geopolitics, territory, Siberia etc. Besides, the Chinese to whom Siberia might be eventually lost or sold, belong to the same [or rather sociologically kindred] civilization, what one Karl Marx used to call "asiatic despotism". This is the level at which one looks for changes - and at this level the things are unchangeable.