Before Rudy can even think of running against Hillary Rotten, Algore or Obama Hussein, he's first got to secure the GOP nomination. That isn't gonna happen. The most relevent poll to date, came from John McLaughlin & Associates. McLaughlin is a well known and well respected Republican pollster. On November 7, 2006, GOP voters told McLaughlin that John McCain was their choice for the GOP nomination. As you can see in the poll data below, McCain beats Giuliani by 6%. In the same McLaughlin poll taken during the the 2004 election, Giuliani came out well ahead of McCain by 12%. Conservative Republicans are finally getting the facts on Rudy`s liberal politics and his liberal governing record as Mayor of NYCity. And conservatives don't like what they see.
Polling Data
Preference for Republican 2008 presidential nominee:
John McCain
28%
Rudy Giuliani
22%
Condoleezza Rice
13%
Newt Gingrich
5%
Mitt Romney
4%
George Allen
2%
Bill Frist
2%
George Pataki
1%
Mike Huckabee
1%
Sam Brownback
1%
Tom Tancredo
1%
Unsure
22%
Source: McLaughlin & Associates
Methodology: Interviews with Republican voters among 1,000 American adults who voted in the 2006 general election on Nov. 7, 2006. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.
What you are showing is that Guiliani and McCain are tied given the margin of error. That accurately reflects reality and there seems to be little reason to doubt that the nominee will be one of those two. I would vote for either over any RAT.
What the poll does NOT show is any weighting for state primaries. Thus, when one considers that Guiliani will win at least NY, NY, Il, MI, PA, Ohio, Wisconsin, and CA and more conservative candidates will win some of the Western states McCain expects to win the latter's chances drop pretty far.
I do not expect any clear winner going into the convention but do expect Guiliani will have the most delegates by far due to big state victories.
When undecided is tied for second place all the poll really says is that the field is wide open.
>> Polling Data
>> Preference for Republican 2008 presidential nominee:
Notice how they chose to exclude Ted Nugent - what's up with that?