A long time ago in a World where four nations stood alone, outside the United Nations, surviving on the "good will" election cycle of American electoral politics... Taiwan, South Africa, South Korea and Israel banded together to explore nuclear weapons. Much spectulation about nuke explosions off the S. African coast sever times in the 78-80 period, possibly ending in a pre-Lybian first of WMD transfer, e.g., the transfer of S. Africa to a less stable regime for military purposes (no longer a Western oriented Nations). Today, Israel is accused, or rather suspected, of having acquired the bomb - and one wonders how or where they tested it. More than a few governments around the world know how to connect the dots of the four countries. It took years for South Korea to join the UN in a prelude to their '88 Olympics - a major US coup on the International stage. Taiwan awaits either the fait of South Africa or continued world presence like Israel.
So does anyone out their think that North Korea would not have attacked the South, or that the Arabs would not have attacked Israel, or better yet why was China deterred by puny Taiwan.... I rather beleive the scientific exchanges in the 70-80's put these countries into a very quiet, technolgical and secure, military viable sustaining regimes.
Your memory is excellent. You are entirely correct about that, and both the U.S. and the Soviets got enough satellite and seismic intel to piece two and two together. I do not know what level that was shared with the Chinese (you recall the Sovs and the Chinese had been lofting artillery at one another again right around that time) or whether it was believed, but it would be a very bad bet on the Chinese part that it was only meteorites. Meteorites - remember that one?