Posted on 12/17/2006 1:52:53 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
THE prospects for continued peace in north Asia depend on the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear status, which resume in Beijing today after 15 stormy political months on the Korean peninsula.
The dynamics have shifted dramatically since the last talks. When Pyongyang tested its first nuclear bomb two months ago, defying pleas from Beijing, it alienated itself from its only ally.
The extent of that alienation has been revealed in essays by China's leading strategic thinkers. The bitter sense of betrayal felt in China about its communist neighbour, on whose behalf 360,000 soldiers, mainly volunteers, died during the Korean war 53 years ago, sets the tone for the extraordinarily frank essays in China Security.
These essays, in a special publication by the Washington-based World Security Institute, discuss, often bleakly, the far-reaching implications of North Korea's nuclear program for China's foreign policy and the balance of power within China.
(Excerpt) Read more at theaustralian.news.com.au ...
Yep, and there's no way China is going to let him get away with it either. They are a proud people and the Chinese people will DEMAND their leaders put little Kimmy in his place.
Two misconceptions. First of all, I said that China conquers, then pulls out, leaving a puppet government to negotiate with the South. China doesn't pay a dime for repair or reunification, that is up to SKOR.
Second, while there is a Maginot-like line facing Seoul, that artillery is in terrible condition, and it is estimated that much of it is unusable. And I would anticipate that Kim Jong-Il would be far more interested in protecting his sorry rear end in Pyongyang. Also, I mentioned that China most likely has a handful of the NK command and general staff in its pocket.
They would just order their units to stand down and wait for Chinese "relief".
Kim is also believed to be extremely ill, from several deadly medical conditions. His two potential heirs have only limited support from the military, and in many ways are a lot like Saddam's sons, Uday and Qusay. Expendable.
All told, I still think that if China took the gamble, it could win, big time.
Ping for Tiger.
Very good post, Jet. I think that TigerLikesRooster is the most up to speed posting Freeper on this subject. Knows his Korea region geopolitics.
N. Korea will threaten China's precious 2008 Olympics.
They just got volunteered by someone else :)
In the midst of these comments, there was an interesting item. China is concerned that nuclear N. Korea and U.S. cut a deal, normalize diplomatic relation, while cutting out China. That is, they are afraid that N. Korea is more pro-U.S. than pro-China. Many Freepers do not realize this, but Kim Jong-il is the figure who can betray China anytime if he can secure a better deal to offset the betrayal. This is like N. Korea turning into Viet Nam for China. Nuclear-armed N. Korea falling out of China's orbit is indeed frightening prospect. China invested and put up with N. Korea so much to keep it in China's orbit. Despite the fact, if N. Korea eventually cuts a deal with U.S. and turns pro-U.S. or becomes a free agent, all Chinese efforts is for nothing. This is the angle many non-Chinese observers neglected. The worst Chinese fear is that despite their efforts, N. Korea gets nuclear arms and gets out of its orbit.
Of course, this view has some obvious problems. This will not sit well with Japan and a majority of S. Korea. They will all push for their own nukes as deterrents for N. Korea's nukes. Those who advance this view also plays down the willingness of S. Korea and Japan to go nuclear.
Still, it is the real fear China has on N. Korea. So there is another scenario in which China will take down Kim Jong-il regime. That is, when China is convinced that N. Korea will cut them out and side with U.S..
You miss the point. "Volunteers" are basically like a militia; they weren't part of the People's Liberation Army, they could be sent in untrained and under-equipped, and if they lost, the ChiComs had plausible deniability and could save face.
I can't say how many of the "volunteers" were openly coerced and how many were so pervasively brainwashed and conditions that they honestly volunteered; there are enough atrocities in the Cultural Revolution without government encouragement to make it a fair question.
Yeah, I don't get why people are skeptical. Communist regimes spend billions in internal propaganda, so why wouldn't young chinese men volunteer to defeat the evil imperialists?
True...
...so the chances of that ever happening is zero.
For as we all know, world politics involves never doing what makes sense.
bttt
No kidding. From Jung Chang's recent book "Mao the Untold Story", pg. 358:
"Mao encouraged Pyongyang to invade the South and to take on the USA -- and volunteered Chinese manpower -- as early as May 1949. At this stage he was talking about sending in Chinese troops clandestinely, posing as Korens, and not about China having an open collision with America. During his recent visit to Russia, however, Mao changed. He became determined to fight America openly -- because only such a war would enable him to gouge out of Stalin what he needed to build his own world-class war machine. What Mao had in mind boiled down to a deal: Chinese soldiers would fight the Americans for Stalin in excahnege for Soviet technology and equipment."
Actually, the recent Iran dealings with Russia and China vs the US has the same ring, w/ Iran's intentions being less about creating a nuclear weapon than with getting behind-the-scenes technology. Of course, Iran's leaders are madmen, but then so was Mao.
Thanks for your families service, but while the Chinese conscripts may have been brave in the face of death, they were certainly not volunteers and faced execution regardless. From "Mao the Untold Story", excerpts from pgs. 361-62, in response to the US response to N Korea's invasion of the South in 1950:
"Stalin signalled to Mao that the moment had come for him to act."
"Mao leapt into action."
"Poverty-stricken, exhausted China was about to be thrown into war with the USA."
"Mao was convinced that America could not defeat him, because of his one fundamental asset -- millions of expendable Chinese, including quite few that he was pretty keen to get rid of. In fact, the war provided a perfect chance to consign former Nationalist troops to their deaths. ... In case UN troops should fail to do the job, there were special execution squads in the rear to take care of anyone hanging back."
One further note: According to local press reports, Chinese state media(Xinhua, People's Daily) runs many articles on how U.S. could take down N. Korea regime, including detailed report on nuclear strike by Trident missiles.
To me, it is a Chinese way of showing that they would not indefinitely back N. Korea. I am not sure Kim Jong-il bothers to take note of such hints, though.
As I mentioned in some other posts a while back, Bush's loss of mid-term election may embolden Bush's adversaries and make them overreach, resulting in their hastened demise. Kim Jong-il gettin cocky and even shubbing China aside could be one candidate. Iraqi Sunnis and Al Qaeda Jihadis are others.
IMHO, this is our best hope.
I understand your point, let me clarify my position as I don't think we are in too much dispute about the nature of the conscripts. Rather my problem is with original writer Rowan Callick's false characterization:
"...on whose behalf 360,000 soldiers, mainly volunteers, died during the Korean war..."
IMHO, Callick is insulting 1) the Chinese casualties and 2) today's audience by characterizing what occured as a voluntary effort by those troops to sacrifice themselves for North Korea's benefit.
He is taking the official communist China propoganda and helping spread it. The truth is self-evident today, that these troops, whether indoctrinated (which I doubt since they were only recently defeated) or not, were never 'volunteer's' in an effort to protect NK from the evil US.
There can or should be no sense of "betrayal" by today's Chinese leaders in the sense Callick portrays it, because (unless current Chinese leaders are completely myopic) there never was any 'sacrifice' made by 'volunteers.'
Mao and Stalin were using the Chinese soldiers and the entire NK population as pawns for their own gain. By ignoring this truth in writing his story, Callick is mis-reporting the issue. Current Chinese leaders may feel 'betrayed' by their puppet, but it's only because Il Jung (may have) refused to follow today's orders, not some imagined sacrifice decades ago.
Also look at what Russia is saying about North Korea... Putin has threatened Kim Jung Il as of late.
This is part of a deception campaign. China knows how the United States engineered the defeat of the Soviet Union and they will rely on ancient Chinese tactics (The Art of War by Sun-tzu) to make sure the United States is defeated in what they view is a ongoing effort against them. The use of nontraditional and asymmetrical techniques are designed to "enable an inferior power to defeat a superior one."
In the ancient writing, 36 Strategems, The Secret Art of War, it is written:
Cross the sea under camouflage: The perception of perfect preparation leads to released vigilance. The sight of common occurrences leads to slackened suspicion. Therefore secret machinations are better concealed in the open than in the dark, and extreme public exposure often contains extreme secrecy.
Kill with a borrowed knife: Your enemy's situation is clear but your ally's stand is uncertain. At this time, induce your ally to attack your enemy in order to preserve your strength. In dialectic terms, another man's loss is your gain.
And,
Create something out of nothing: Design a counterfeit front to put the enemy off-guard. When the trick works, the front is changes into something real so that the enemy will be thrown into a state of double confusion. In short, deceptive appearances often conceal some forthcoming dangers.
The Chinese and even the Russians have plans to get rid of Kim Il. Can anyone say Polonium 210???
The Russians and the CIS would directly assist the Chinese in the North Korean Invasion per SCO agreements. But, North Korea would try to draw the US into it as soon as possible by attacking South Korea as you stated.
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