Posted on 12/15/2006 5:50:12 AM PST by theothercheek
For the last two days Washington, D.C. has been all atwitter over the possibility that Dems might lose control of the Senate before the first minute of the first 100 hours in which they planned to enact every single recommendation made in the 9-11Commission Report, raise the minimum wage, enable the government to negotiate drug prices directly with the pharmaceutical companies to lower costs for senior citizens, halve the interest rate on student loans and undo President Bush’s ban on federal funding of embryonic stem cell research.
The political calculus is that if Sen. Tim Johnson’s (D-SD) health problems prevent him from serving when the 110th Congress convenes in January, the governor of South Dakota, Mike Rounds, could replace him with a fellow Republican – which would mean that the 51-49 Democratic majority becomes a 50-50 split. This is tantamount to Republicans retaining control because Vice President Dick Cheney would cast the tie-breaking vote.
But the math doesn’t quite add up, because a state governor may appoint a replacement only if a sitting senator dies or resigns.
As of this writing, Johnson remains in critical condition after emergency surgery to repair bleeding in his brain caused by a rare, and sometimes fatal, congenital malformation of blood vessels. After visiting him in the hospital Thursday afternoon, the U.S. Capitol physician said Johnson was on "an uncomplicated postoperative course."
According to Senate historian Donald Ritchie Senate rules permit lawmakers to serve out their terms unless they resign or die – and absent commission of a crime, no senator can be forced out.
So Johnson can retain his seat even if he is incapacitated and never shows up to vote. That would mean the Dems would have a one-vote majority, and cannot afford a single defection on any piece of legislation. The odds are slim to none that Speaker Nancy Pelosi will be able to induce 44 conservative “Blue Dog” Dems and 47 pro-business “New Dems” to vote in lockstep with the 71 liberal moonbats.
The Grim Reaper may be stalking a couple of other Dems, as John Fund notes in OpinionJournal’s Political Diary (subscription required): "Hawaii is represented by two 82-year old Democrats, Daniel Inouye and Dan Akaka, and Hawaii's Republican Governor Linda Lingle would presumably nominate someone of her own party if a vacancy developed."
Though admittedly ghoulish, this new political parlor game is kinda fun. At 89 years old Robert Byrd (D-WV) is even older than Hawaii’s senators. But the governor of WV Joe Manchin III, is also a Dem so Republicans would not gain a seat should he meet his Maker. If Manchin (who is pro-life, and favors tax cuts) replaces him with a Blue Dog or moderate Dem, he does Pelosi no favors.
But there is one other elderly senator representing a state with a governor who belongs to a different party: 74-year old Ted Kennedy. Should Sen. Kennedy be unable to complete his term because of morbidity or mortality, the governor of MA, Mitt Romney, would replace him with a Republican. Romney, who needs to solidify his bona fides with conservatives if he is serious about making a run for the White House, would likely appoint a conservative-leaning moderate, rather than a RINO.
Not that The Stiletto wishes ill on anyone.
NOTE: Original source includes links to relevant articles and Web sites.
Perhaps I'm not clear on all the implications, but why this article, as well as other remarks I've heard, comment on the affect Johnson's incapacity could have on Nanci Pelosi is beyond me. Pelosi is Speaker of the House. Johnson is a Democrat Senator. His absence would affect the Senate vote but not Pelosi's. Can someone explain these written references to me?
The vast majority of US citizens ( to include reporters) have very little idea how the US Legislature really works?
With Pub control of the Senate it could stall or defeat any legislation passed in the House.
On top of that, with 5 RINO's of the Gang of 14 still serve the Senate:
# John McCain, Arizona
# Lindsey Graham, South Carolina
# John Warner, Virginia
# Olympia Snowe, Maine (Won in 2006 General Election)
# Susan Collins, Maine
Just one has to pull a Jeffords, an option that is very palatable at this point to some of the above, and the Senate is still in D control. Maine doesn't even have a functioning state level Republican party at this point.
Perhaps that's what was meant, but it doesn't read that way. Here's the operative paragraph: "So Johnson can retain his seat even if he is incapacitated and never shows up to vote. That would mean the Dems would have a one-vote majority, and cannot afford a single defection on any piece of legislation. The odds are slim to none that Speaker Nancy Pelosi will be able to induce 44 conservative “Blue Dog” Dems and 47 pro-business “New Dems” to vote in lockstep with the 71 liberal moonbats."
It begins with Johnson in the Senate, but then discusses what Pelosi would have to do to keep her House vote in line. I reads to me that the author is confusing one less Senate vote with it's affect on House voting. That doesn't make sense to me.
I agree. But what I was addressing was the apparent inconsistency in a Senate issue being related to what affect it would have on the House Speaker being able to keep her factions together on a vote.
You are right. Passed your comment along so the commentary can be corrected. The correct version should be available now.
The original source of this commentary has corrected the error, so it should make sense now (hopefully).
Incompetence by the article writer?
I believe he is wrong about Massachussetts. If Uncle Ted meets the Big Bartender in the Sky, the Mass. legislature will appoint. They changed it when JF'nK looked like he might win the Presidency.
Thanks. I see it's been changed and the correction noted on the original website. As my post indicated, I heard a similar reference on Fox News yesterday. Some newsman/talking head brought up Pelosi and the affect Johnson's illness could have on her.
I didn't understand it then, nor could I understand it in the above article. Now, I'm not the brightest bulb when it comes to political gamesmanship, but this was one thing I just couldn't get right in my mind. I thought it worth asking the question.
There's Many A Slip 'Twixt the Keyboard and Pinkies?'
Don't I know it. I've made my share.
They have now posted a correction.
Yes, I saw that. Apparently written early in the a.m. Exhaustion will do that to you.
"For the last two days Washington, D.C. has been all atwitter over the possibility that Dems might lose control of the Senate "
Yep. And nearly every single comment has come from the 'liberal' side of the isle.
They're more concerned with holding power than they are with one of their own's health.
So far all of the analyses I've seen misses the role of the Vice President.
If the ailing Senator is unable to vote on the first bill to come to the floor -- THE ONE THAT ESTABLISHES THE RULES FOR THIS SESSION, AND THE ONE THAT DIVVIES UP THE MAJORITY/MINORITY COMMITTEE ASSIGNMENTS,OFFICE SPACE, STAFF, ETC -- then the Dems would have 50 votes, the Republicans 49, and the President of the Senate (Cheney) has the power to MAKE or BREAK a tie.
If the Republicans don't like the deal, Cheney can effectively block it (all resolutions require at least a simple majority -- ties don't carry the day).
So if they can't bring the guy onto the floor, the Dems do not have a working majority, TODAY!
I'm glad you asked the question - and I'm glad a correction was made before too many other people saw it and wondered what the heck the author was talking about. The thing with us conservatives is that we like to be "right" - even when we have to correct our mistakes so that we can be "right," right? Unlike Dems, who keep spouting the same erroneous or untruthful stuff regardless of the facts.
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