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Space Weather Advisory Bulletin #06- 5 (Widespread voltage probs, higher radiation thru 12-15)
NOAA ^ | 14 December 2006

Posted on 12/14/2006 1:27:49 PM PST by bd476

**** GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS ****



A geomagnetic storm began on December 14 at 1416 UTC (9:16 A.M. EST).





The Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO), operated by the High Altitude Observatory
in Boulder Colorado, is allowing SEC to use their latest H-alpha and Helium-I images
while the SEC GOES SXI images are unavailable.



A solar flare on 13 December at 0240 UTC (12 December, 9:40 P.M. EST) from NOAA Region 930 produced strong radio blackouts (R3) ...

R 3 Strong

HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth.

Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour.



. . . and an associated moderate (S2) solar radiation storm.
S 2 Moderate

Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.***

Satellite operations: infrequent single-event upsets possible.

Other systems: small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.


A large Earth-directed coronal mass ejection was also observed with this event, producing today's geomagnetic storming.

Strong to severe (G3 and G4) geomagnetic storming is expected to last through 15 December.


G 4 Severe

Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.

Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)**.


G 3 Strong

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.




Region 930 is a large sunspot group which is still rotating across the visible disk.

Because of the current position of Region 930, additional activity has greater potential to quickly impact Earth.

Agencies impacted by space weather storms should continue to closely monitor space weather conditions during the next four days.



TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: aurora; geomagneticstorm; radioblackouts; solarradiation
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To: Hillarys Gate Cult

You'd think... but the storm hasn't hit yet. Winds are still pretty mild throughout the area.


21 posted on 12/14/2006 2:22:47 PM PST by Ramius ([sip])
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To: Ramius

Just as I suspected, the storm is already hitting Oregon hard. Power grids cover allot of miles.


22 posted on 12/14/2006 2:25:48 PM PST by Hillarys Gate Cult (The man who said "there's no such thing as a stupid question" has never talked to Helen Thomas.)
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To: baa39
baa39 wrote: "Pretty impressive charts and colors and stuff, but what does it mean?"

It is unclear which part of the written bulletin you find difficult to read and understand.

23 posted on 12/14/2006 2:29:30 PM PST by bd476
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To: baa39

"Use the force, Luke." Or the 'net ...


24 posted on 12/14/2006 2:29:34 PM PST by dhuffman@awod.com (The conspiracy of ignorance masquerades as common sense.)
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To: Red Badger
LOL!

25 posted on 12/14/2006 2:32:34 PM PST by bd476
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To: finnman69
ROFL!

26 posted on 12/14/2006 2:33:21 PM PST by bd476
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To: bd476
"Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk."

There ya go. The Russian spy case has been solved.
27 posted on 12/14/2006 2:40:38 PM PST by keats5 (tolerance of intolerant people is cultural suicide)
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To: Ramius
Ramius wrote: "I wonder if this is causing the power problems we're having in the Seattle area this morning."

It's a possibility.

28 posted on 12/14/2006 2:50:10 PM PST by bd476
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To: keats5
keats5 wrote:

'Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.'

There ya go. The Russian spy case has been solved."

ROFLOL!

29 posted on 12/14/2006 2:52:45 PM PST by bd476
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The Sun is sending Earth some extra x-radiation today.





  GOES 12 GOES 11
Cur 2236 M5.4 Ratio 0.197 2236 M5.2 Ratio 0.203
Beg 2107 B1.1   2107 B1.0  
Max 2215 X1.5 Int 1.22-01 J m-2 2215 X1.4 Int 1.17-01 J m-2
End 2226 M7.4   2226 M7.1  


This GOES X-ray flux plot contains 1 minute averages of solar X-ray output in the 1-8 Angstrom (0.1-0.8 nm) and 0.5-4.0 Angstrom (0.05-0.4 nm) passbands. Data from both operational GOES satellites are included.

Some data dropouts will occur during satellite eclipses.

SEC alerts are issued at the M5 (5x10E-5 Watts/m2) and X1 (1x10E-4 Watts/m2) levels, based upon 1-minute data.

Large X-ray bursts cause short wave fades for HF propagation paths through the sunlit hemisphere. Some large flares are accompanied by strong solar radio bursts that may interfere with satellite downlinks.
30 posted on 12/14/2006 2:56:09 PM PST by bd476
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To: bd476

Does anyone have the link to the graphic showing ion activity at the pole?


31 posted on 12/14/2006 4:11:42 PM PST by Rb ver. 2.0
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To: Rb ver. 2.0

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/index.html


32 posted on 12/14/2006 5:12:38 PM PST by cripplecreek (Peace without victory is a temporary illusion.)
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To: cripplecreek

Thanks!


33 posted on 12/14/2006 5:17:47 PM PST by Rb ver. 2.0
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To: Rb ver. 2.0

I'm seeing a greenish tinge to the north already. I live in southern Michigan. I'm also seeing a few stray meteors.


34 posted on 12/14/2006 5:21:35 PM PST by cripplecreek (Peace without victory is a temporary illusion.)
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The most recent Solar Radiation Alert :

S 3 Strong

Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.***

Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely.

Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3
Serial Number: 23
Issue Time: 2006 Dec 15 0028 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2006 Dec 15 0005 UTCM
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong


35 posted on 12/14/2006 6:07:33 PM PST by bd476
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Range 1 (minor) to 5 (extreme)
NOAA Scale
Geomagnetic Storms
Solar Radiation Storms
Radio Blackouts
     

NOAA Space Weather Scales


The NOAA Space Weather Scales were introduced as a way to communicate to the general public the current and future space weather conditions and their possible effects on people and systems. Many of the SEC products describe the space environment, but few have described the effects that can be experienced as the result of environmental disturbances. These scales will be useful to users of our products and those who are interested in space weather effects. The scales describe the environmental disturbances for three event types: geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. The scales have numbered levels, analogous to hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes that convey severity. They list possible effects at each level. They also show how often such events happen, and give a measure of the intensity of the physical causes.

The NOAA Space Weather Scales tables are shown below.

Geomagnetic Storms: disturbances in the geomagnetic field caused by gusts in the solar wind that blows by Earth.
Solar Radiation Storms: elevated levels of radiation that occur when the numbers of energetic particles increase.
Radio Blackouts: disturbances of the ionosphere caused by X-ray emissions from the Sun.

36 posted on 12/14/2006 6:26:50 PM PST by bd476
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To: bd476; Izzy Dunne

I just checked. It's clear, surprisingly, because usually it's not when there's a chance for a good aurora event, but no sign of any lights.


37 posted on 12/14/2006 7:53:39 PM PST by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: metmom
I was hoping to get a glimpse of the aurora, but it looks like it might not make itself visible this far south (MD). The last (and only) time I saw it was in Nov/Dec of 2001, and that time it was thanks to a thread on FR that alerted me. I'll probably stay up late, just in case it happens again.

Here's another link, to the Short Term Aurora Forecast, from the Geophysical Institute at University of Alaska Fairbanks, page for North America.

Looks like some Freepers should get a good show.

38 posted on 12/14/2006 8:38:26 PM PST by tgslTakoma
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To: metmom
metmom wrote: "I just checked. It's clear, surprisingly, because usually it's not when there's a chance for a good aurora event, but no sign of any lights."

If you did get to see it, please share what you saw. I'm too far South to see it.

39 posted on 12/14/2006 9:47:33 PM PST by bd476
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On July 14th, 2000, an active region of the sun (called AR9077) produced a massive flare. The event also blasted an enormous cloud of positive-charged particles toward planet Earth, triggering magnetic storms and dramatic auroral displays.

This striking close-up of AR9077 was made by the orbiting Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) satellite shortly after the flare erupted. Suspended in an arcade of magnetic loops, the image shows a one million degree hot solar plasma cooling down.

Plasma is a gas that has been heated to a state where it contains ions and free-floating electrons. The false-color image covers an expansive 230,000 by 77,000 kilometer area on the Sun’s surface (Earth’s diameter is about 12,800 kilometers) and was recorded in extreme ultraviolet light.

Collectively resembling a popular “slinky” toy, the enormous loops are actually magnetic field lines which trap the glowing, cooling plasma above the relatively dark solar surface.

After the flare, AR9077’s activity decayed as it was carried farther across the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun by solar rotation.

Active regions like AR9077 appear as groups of dark sunspots in visible light. (Image courtesy TRACE)

NASA Earth Observatory

40 posted on 12/14/2006 11:14:10 PM PST by bd476
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