What NOT to do would be more accurate.
Russians followed this dogma in Afganistan. How did that work out for them?
There seems to be a desperation around here to cling to ignorance of how Counter Insurgency differs from Conventional War. This is one of the political aspects of the problem that Conventional Military thinkers find so hard to deal with.
For example Al Sadr. Al Sadr is a clever little thug. He walks right up to the line but he does not cross it. He is typical of the sorts of messy little problems that crop up in a Counter Insurgency. NOT exactly an enemy not exactly an ally. So how you deal with him is troublesome.
Since Malki and Al Sadr are both Shia, Malki cannot squish him without splitting his own power base. So he keeps trying to negotiate with the twit. Frankly, I think with the terrorists mostly broken now is the time to break the militias. Maliki is simply making a mistake here. What we need was the excuse and Al-Sadr's threats to launch a coup would of been the perfect excuse we needed to kill him and break his "Mahdi Army".
Unfortunately as usual the Arab way kicks in again. Talk,talk,talk,talk,talk,talk and more talk. Someone needs to sit Maliki down and speak truth to him.
Here how Counter Insurgency done the Dinocon way would look.
-
Americans: Yo, all you Iraqis. Now we know you all have been oppressed and terrorized by Saddam and his goons for about 40 years so we came over here to show you a better way. So gather round and we are going to teach you this thing called Democracy. We want to teach you this cause we figure if we get can get enough of you following this ideology you will not follow the ideology that preaches it is a good thing to fly airplanes into buildings full of our Civilians.
Now the first things you need to learn is this part about the Rule of Law. Study the sub chapters on Innocent until prove Guilty, Trial by Jury, Right to Legal Representation and really important, the chapter on outlawing Cruel and Unusual Punishment. Ok, now while you do that, we are going to arbitrarily round up and kill any Iraqis who we think maybe have ever talked mean about us.
What? No we are not going to bother with any of that messy Democracy stuff cause we are at war. And according to our Holloweird Movie guide to Military Action flicks any time you are at war you can waste anyone who pisses you off for what ever reason you want any way you want to do it. According to Hollyweird, we don't need nothing like proof or nothing we can just go wack that little Al Sadr freak cause he pisses us off. Evidence? We don't need no stinkin' evidence. Our action movie heros never bother with any evidence. In the Movie we watch on TV says we are just suppose to go kill him because he pisses us off so that what we want to do here. Now quit talking back and learn our lessons on Democracy.
Iraqi 1. Hey Mahmoud, why are we helping these clowns?
Iraqi 2. What do you mean Achmed, they got rid of Saddam!
Iraqi 1. They did? Looks to me like they just took his place.
Iraqi 2. Well ya so?
Iraqi 1. Well at least the old thugs were from around here. These guys are not only from out of town they are not even Muslims. We may has well have Muslim thugs if we got to have thugs.
Iraqi 2. You right, time to join the Jihad!
That is what this "Counter Insurgency doctrine as learned from watching TV dramas" would produce. It is utter stupidity but forget trying to penetrate the Dinocons welded shut minds. They are too busy screaming their group think on Iraq to actually LEARN anything about Iraq.
I think the Democrats will eventually come up with an alternative strategy -- "run and cut."
I mostly concur. Hearts and minds will take too long for the Press to allow victory. Like it or not, the unregulated press has enormous power.
"To put this plainly: the “strategy” in Fallujah should have been to make it into a parking lot, and build a Wal-Mart at one end. There would have been great loss of life, but the message to our enemies and their supporters everywhere would have been, “We will not be toyed with.” Civilians whose sympathies are with the enemy cannot be won over, and have not been, by the “candy to children” approach. They must be taught that sheltering the enemy -- even involuntarily -- means sharing the enemy’s fate. (The distinction between what is voluntary and involuntary soon changes under those conditions.) And this, in the longer run, is what saves millions of lives."
This is what won't work. There is a 70% swath of people that just want safety, security and a little freedom. Unfortunately you have to be seen as sacrificing for these people, not persecuting them. Then they catch on that the Christian way is the right way to live one's life. The ME needs Christ more than ever. I saw a bumper sticker on the back of a Muslim's (presumably) Suburban at lunch. It stated "Jesus is in the Koran. Read about at at www.koransomethingornother.com."
Is Mohammed a more important prophet than Jesus to muslims? How can they reconcile the "do not make friends of Jews and Christians" with "Jesus is in the Koran, read all about it"? Bottom line is you are simply advocating making a parking lot of the place. Personally I think we are going to go more toward the diplomacy side with the option to flay a few more despotic regimes if anything bad happens in our country or to our assets overseas.
I have thought that for a long time, but didn't have the wit to coin a phrase that explains so well. The Iraqi people understand the Koran and the Old Testament. They don't understand our actions as being humane, but think we are too weak.
Take out those that are killing each other and those that are killing Americans. At that point let them vote for what government they want and don't be afraid that they will pick a dictator. If they do, he will remember the lesson we have taught them.
Adopt the phrase: "Don't tread on me." They will understand!
Well I'm not a military stragist but I have read the Art of War by Sun Tzu.
Since 80% of Iraq is doing well and almost all the trouble is in Bagdad here is what I would do.
fence off Bagdad, flood with flyers saying get out. Check everyone who tries to leave, disarm, and then bomb that place to rubble.
This is a culture that wants to behead each and every one of us and they only understand strength. Show them strength and they will respect us more for it and in the long run, many more lives will be saved.