Posted on 12/13/2006 1:03:08 PM PST by Strategerist
Updated: 06:15 UTC on 13 December 2006 Solar Terrestrial Dispatch www.spacew.com
VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 14 DECEMBER VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 15 DECEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 15 DECEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 70, 30, 15 (13 - 16 DECEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO COLORADO TO KANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO AUSTRIA TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
A powerful and well-directed solar flare from active solar Region 930 was observed early on 13 December. This event has the potential to produce periods of moderate to strong (possibly even intense) auroral storm activity on 14 December, possibly lingering into 15 December. The most intense phase of activity is likely to occur some hours after the initial impact, which is currently expected near 07:00 UTC on 14 December (2 am EST on 14 December). The moon will begin to impinge on observations after it rises sometime after local midnight, so the best observations (if possible) will occur prior to and near local midnight when the moon is still below the horizon.
This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (5 pm EST) on 15 December. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
** End of Warning **
North Carolina - Good.
Jump up and run outside - patchy clouds thicker off to the North - Darn.
I have seen clear sky, but not here in Fairbanks, not in 30 years. There are maybe six halfway decent night skies a year, but they don't compare with the real deal.
Things are pretty fubar up here in Western WA too. No power and our Comcast Internet is down. Fortunately we have DSL as a backup and a generator.
The power outage seems to be pretty widespread, but I can't find any news/updates at all on it.
Eh, not that the Aurora is dangerous so the term "Risk" isn't that great - it's just that they think the best chance is the UTC (Greenwich time) day of the 14th - which is 7PM eastern time tonight through 7PM eastern time on the 14th,
Note others have different predictions, NOAA is forecasting it to be later, on the night of the 14th.
Not in this fog! 8^(
We saw a vey strange aurora here in MA around Halloween one year; I think it was in 2002. The sky looked red for a while and the coloring was in vertical waves moving side to side.
Lots of clouds overhead; but I'm praying tomorrow night is clear and I don't care how cold -- I plan to be watching the skies.
Yeah, it's cloudy here in MA, as well. It's been clear and gorgeous all week until today! :o(
It has been jaw-droppingly beautiful here too. Until today.
I'm in Phoenix and will be out looking for the falling stuff in the east.....any chance I see this too ?
I suspect if there's a display it may not be till Thursday night. Some of the later predictions from other sites have the CME impact during the day tomorrow.
PING
thx very much
Oh wow...absolutely!
The CME will impact within the hour - just hit the ACE satellite, NOAA has warning....
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 62
Issue Time: 2006 Dec 14 1401 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2006 Dec 14 1410 UTC
Valid To: 2006 Dec 14 1445 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2006 Dec 14 1356 UTC
Very nice.
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