I think the Republican party has already evaporated and 3rd parties will be just what they are - nothing. The two headed gov't party has no use for one of the two "parties", the Republicans, anymore. I think a lot of the elected Republicans know it and even though they aren't willing to leave the gravy train until they are forced to, most have been very busy getting "theirs" while they can which is why very few conservatives can think of anything kind to say in regard to the Republican party and their actions in the recent past.
the base cannot elect anyone on its own - it can either be part of a coalition that brings some independents along, or we lose. we will be going in 2008 with HUGE baggage.