TX-23 Final SurveyUSA Poll (Bonilla-51%; Rodriguez-47%)

SurveyUSA ^ | 12/11/06

[LdSentinal]

Can Republican Bonilla Hang On in TX 23 Runoff? On the eve of the 12/12/06 runoff election in Texas's 23rd Congressional District, incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla appears to edge Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, 51% to 47%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WOAI-TV San Antonio. Since an identical SurveyUSA WOAI-TV poll 1 week ago, on 12/4/06, Bonilla has lost 2 points and Rodriguez has gained 1 point. Among men, Bonilla leads by 10 points, unchanged from last week. Rodriguez's gains have come from women, who picked Bonilla by 3 points last week but now pick Rodriguez by 3 points. Bonilla gets 67% of White votes. Rodriguez gets 68% of Hispanic votes. In the turnout model used by SurveyUSA for this poll, 53% of likely runoff voters are White, 39% are Hispanic. Bonilla gets 90% of Republican votes. Rodriguez gets 87% of Democratic votes. Independents split. Bonilla gets 81% of conservative votes. Rodriguez gets 80% of liberal votes. Rodriguez wins 2:1 among moderates. Bonilla wins by 17 points among higher-income voters, and by 8 points among middle-income voters. Rodriguez wins by 20 points among lower-income voters. Texas's Congressional map was redrawn after a Supreme Court case in August 2006. Since there was no time for party primaries, there was a special election on November 7th in the affected districts, in which more than one candidate per party could run. In the 23rd Congressional District, Bonilla defeated Rodriguez and several other Democrats, but received only 48% of the vote, triggering the runoff. Those who voted for other candidates on 11/7/06 now prefer Rodriguez by 4:1. Those who did not vote on 11/7/06, but who now say they are certain to vote, support Rodriguez by 6. Last week they had supported Bonilla by 20, a 26-point swing to Rodriguez. Bonilla was first elected to Congress in 1992. Rodriguez represented Texas's 28th Congressional District from 1997 to 2005.

[LdSentinal]

Too close for comfort, but Bonilla is over 50%.

[Txsleuth]

Considering Bubba went down to campaign for Rodriguez..I would say over 50% right now is good....

I am praying that the people in that district have been paying attention to what Pelosi and other dems have been doing since elected..and decide NO WAY are they going to contribute to that gang.

[Norman Bates]

This is important to win and I think we will. However suddenly it seems that Clinton can't have enough of his candidates win after so many losses in previous elections. It baffles me how this guy remains seemingly popular. I hope President Bush will not go into his post-presidency as unpopular.

[DrewsDad]

Special elections are all about turnout of the base vote and the democrats are more energized than we are. This will be a tough one to win.

2006 Special November Elections

11/7/2006

U. S. Representative District 23

August G. "Augie" Beltran

DEM

2,750

2.22%

Rick Bolanos

DEM

2,566

2.07%

Henry Bonilla(I)

REP

59,472

48.03%

Adrian DeLeon

DEM

2,198

1.77%

Lukin Gilliland

DEM

13,728

11.08%

Ciro D. Rodriguez

DEM

24,594

19.86%

Craig T. Stephens

IND

4,031

3.25%

Albert Uresti

DEM

14,460

11.68%

-----------

Race Total

123,799

...	August G. "Augie"	Rick	Henry	Adrian	Lukin	Ciro D.	Craig T.	Albert	...	...	...
...	Beltran	Bolanos	Bonilla	DeLeon	Gilliland	Rodriguez	Stephens	Uresti	Total	Total	...
County	DEM	DEM	REP	DEM	DEM	DEM	IND	DEM	Votes	Voters	TurnOut
ALL COUNTIES	2,750	2,566	59,472	2,198	13,728	24,594	4,031	14,460	123,799	1,424,308	8.69%
BEXAR	1,986	1,627	37,449	1,118	7,818	17,884	2,256	10,102	80,240	898,687	8.92%
BREWSTER	78	43	1,277	42	340	194	126	312	2,412	5,637	42.78%
CROCKETT	115	12	10	7	34	103	713	23	1,017	2,880	35.31%
CULBERSON	16	10	239	9	20	43	8	52	397	1,912	20.76%
DIMMIT	10	8	506	403	176	316	18	153	1,590	7,619	20.86%
EDWARDS	7	16	547	6	37	58	17	19	707	1,500	47.13%
EL PASO	51	314	699	77	289	409	73	50	1,962	375,425	0.52%
HUDSPETH	15	6	279	13	23	19	25	34	414	1,648	25.12%
JEFF DAVIS	9	27	654	14	119	57	62	88	1,030	1,861	55.34%
KINNEY	44	21	623	12	115	71	23	110	1,019	2,411	42.26%
MAVERICK	62	46	1,051	54	385	1,357	27	590	3,572	25,528	13.99%
MEDINA	138	144	6,022	65	1,049	1,155	304	624	9,501	24,982	38.03%
PECOS	21	35	1,735	44	278	265	69	513	2,960	7,920	37.37%
PRESIDIO	16	21	313	76	72	95	26	181	800	5,425	14.74%
REEVES	29	45	1,004	45	185	170	33	365	1,876	6,656	28.18%
SUTTON	24	6	374	14	23	90	16	50	597	2,707	22.05%
TERRELL	6	6	289	3	63	56	10	78	511	811	63.00%
UVALDE	60	32	2,861	31	1,050	564	96	489	5,183	16,211	31.97%
VAL VERDE	49	123	3,102	65	1,499	1,240	120	504	6,702	26,521	25.27%
ZAVALA	14	24	438	100	153	448	9	123	1,309	7,967	16.43%

---

SOS Home Page Election History Page Election Home Page

[SwinneySwitch]

Ping!

[hispanarepublicana]

Fingers crossed. Hope there are plenty of poll watchers down there. Wish we could have 'em do the unwashable purple finger.....

[wildbill]

I expect the visit by Bubba to turn the tide to the Dems by getting out the Mexican American vote.

Although both men are Mexican-Americans, REP. Bonilla has been getting elected by Anglos in a district that was designed for him. Turnout will be the key and Bubba is a star.

[CutePuppy]

FWIW, wherever I observed, support from Bubba of either propositions or candidates usually means certain defeat, unless it's in absolutely a no-contest district to which he is seldom invited. His failure rate is absolutely astonishing, so his visit to district is usually a good sign for opposition.

[wildbill]

We have to figure in the fact that a lot of this district is in S. Texas where a lead is only a number of what you want it to be.

They may hold some boxes back until they know Bexar county and the hill country votes are in.

[CutePuppy]

That would fall into a "absolutely a no-contest" category :-(