Posted on 12/10/2006 10:04:01 PM PST by neverdem
Libertarian Party candidates may have cost Senators Jim Talent (R.-Mo.) and Conrad Burns (R.-Mont.) their seats, tipping the Senate to Democratic control.
In Montana, the Libertarian candidate got more than 10,000 votes, or 3%, while Democrat Jon Tester edged Burns by fewer than 3,000 votes. In Missouri, Claire McCaskill defeated Talent by 41,000 votes, a bit less than the 47,000 Libertarian votes.
This isnt the first time Republicans have had to worry about losing votes to Libertarian Party candidates. Senators Harry Reid (Nev.), Maria Cantwell (Wash.), and Tim Johnson (S.D.) all won races in which Libertarian candidates got more votes than their winning margin.
But a narrow focus on the Libertarian Party significantly underestimates the role libertarian voters played in 2006. Most voters who hold libertarian views dont vote for the Libertarian Party. Libertarian voters likely cost Republicans the House and the Senatealso dealing blows to Republican candidates in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
In our study, The Libertarian Vote, we analyzed 16 years of polling data and found that libertarians constituted 13% of the electorate in 2004. Because libertarians are better educated and more likely to vote, they were 15% of actual voters.
Libertarians are broadly defined as people who favor less government in both economic and personal issues. They might be summed up as fiscally conservative, socially liberal voters.
In the past, our research shows, most libertarians voted Republican72% for George W. Bush in 2000, for instance, with only 20 percent for Al Gore, and 70% for Republican congressional candidates in 2002. But in 2004, presumably turned off by war, wiretapping, and welfare-state spending sprees, they shifted sharply toward the Democrats. John F. Kerry got 38% of the libertarian vote. That was a dramatic swing that Republican strategists should have noticed. But somehow the libertarian vote has remained hidden in plain sight.
This year we commissioned a nationwide post-election survey of 1013 voters from Zogby International. We again found that 15 percent of the voters held libertarian views. We also found a further swing of libertarians away from Republican candidates. In 2006, libertarians voted 59% to 36% for Republican congressional candidatesa 24-point swing from the 2002 mid-term election. To put this in perspective, front-page stories since the election have reported the dramatic 7-point shift of white conservative evangelicals away from the Republicans. The libertarian vote is about the same size as the religious right vote measured in exit polls, and it is subject to swings more than three times as large.
Based on the turnout in 2004, Bushs margin over Kerry dropped by 4.8 million votes among libertarians. Had he held his libertarian supporters, he would have won a smashing reelection rather than squeaking by in Ohio.
President Bush and the congressional Republicans left no libertarian button unpushed in the past six years: soaring spending, expansion of entitlements, federalization of education, cracking down on state medical marijuana initiatives, Sarbanes-Oxley, gay marriage bans, stem cell research restrictions, wiretapping, incarcerating U.S. citizens without a lawyer, unprecedented executive powers, and of course an unnecessary and apparently futile war. The striking thing may be that after all that, Democrats still looked worse to a majority of libertarians.
Because libertarians tend to be younger and better educated than the average voter, theyre not going away. Theyre an appealing target for Democrats, but they are essential to future Republican successes. Republicans can win the South without libertarians. But this was the year that New Hampshire and the Mountain West turned purple if not blue, and libertarians played a big role there. New Hampshire may be the most libertarian state in the country; this year both the states Republican congressmen lost.
Meanwhile, in the Goldwateresque, leave us alone Mountain West, Republicans not only lost the Montana Senate seat; they also lost the governorship of Colorado, two House seats in Arizona, and one in Colorado. They had close calls in the Arizona Senate race and House races in Idaho, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Dick Cheneys Wyoming. In libertarian Nevada, the Republican candidate for governor won less than a majority against a Democrat who promised to keep the government out of guns, abortion, and gay marriage. Arizona also became the first state to vote down a state constitutional amendment to define marriage as between one man and one woman.
Presidential candidates might note that even in Iowa libertarians helped vote out a Republican congressman who championed the Internet gambling ban.
If Republicans cant win New Hampshire and the Mountain West, they cant win a national majority. And they cant win those states without libertarian votes. Theyre going to need to stop scaring libertarian, centrist, and independent voters with their social-conservative obsessions and become once again the party of fiscal responsibility. In a Newsweek poll just before the election, 47% of respondents said they trusted the Democrats more on federal spending and the deficit, compared to just 31% who trusted the Republicans. Thats not Ronald Reagans Republican Party.
One more bit from our post-election Zogby poll: We asked voters if they considered themselves fiscally conservative and socially liberal. A whopping 59% said they did. When we added to the question also known as libertarian, 44% still claimed that description. Thats too many voters for any party to ignore.
Rep. Barbara Cubin (R.-Wyo.) told her Libertarian challenger after a debate, If you werent sitting in that [wheel]chair, Id slap you. It took 10 days to certify her re-election, perhaps because that Libertarian took more than 7,000 votes. A better strategy for her and other Republicans would be to try to woo libertarians back.
I don't know how dishonest the authors are, but I would be surprised to find any informed libertarian that wanted to fund with taxes embryonic stem cell research. Results so far is without any clinical utility.
Free Republic now is just a popular chat site. And that's really a pity, because we have a lot of like minded folks who could do something, but they just 'don't have the time'. Free Republic used to be a do something site, not a bitch and moan site.
Some chapters are still "doing good work." I miss San Diego for that reason and I applaud and thank my San Diego FRiends for their continued good FReeps.
You have FR mail.
Should the Conservatives in NY State stay home too, or should they vote for the likes of Bloomberg, Giuliani and Pataki?
What happened to the FR network? where is all the chapter work?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus
Uh, Jeff, I attacked the big-L Libertarian voters.
And I attacked them because they cost us Senate seats, not for their beliefs.
The war on guns: Joel Miller explains how drug cops are killing 2nd Amendment
Connecting the War on Guns & Drugs [my title]
The war on some drugs is as effective as alcohol prohibition and funds islamofascists.
Aside from the D.C. chapter and their GOOD work every Friday night at Walter Reed, the Fresno chapter and an occasional San Diego FReep, I can't name any others. Pitiful, huh?
Historical Party Strength in Congress U.S. Senate
Historical Party Strength in Congress U.S. House
As if anyone on this board other than us long timers really care about the history of politics. Look at the FDR years, they had at times over 2/3rds in the senate:
|
|||||||
1933-1935 1935-1937 1937-1939 1939-1941 1941-1943 1943-1945 |
73rd 74th 75th 76th 77th 78th |
D D D D D D |
60 69 76 69 66 58 |
R R R R R R |
35 25 16 23 28 37 |
1 2 4 4 2 1 |
F.Roosevelt (D) F.Roosevelt (D) F.Roosevelt (D) F.Roosevelt (D) F.Roosevelt (D) F.Roosevelt (D) |
|
|||||||
1945-1947 1947-1949 1949-1951 1951-1953 1953-1955 1955-1957 |
79th 80th 81st 82nd 83rd 84th |
D R D D R D |
56 51 54 49 48 48 |
R D R R D R |
38 45 42 47 47 47 |
1 - - - 1 1 |
F.Roosevelt (D) Truman (D) Truman (D) Truman (D) Eisenhower (R) Eisenhower (R) |
|
|||||||
1957-1959 1959-1961 1961-1963 1963-1965 1965-1967 1967-1969 |
85th 86th 87th 88th 89th 90th |
D D D D D D |
49 65 65 67 68 64 |
R R R R R R |
47 35 35 33 32 36 |
1 1 1 1 1 1 |
Eisenhower (R) Eisenhower (R) Kennedy (D) Kennedy (D) L.Johnson (D) L.Johnson (D) |
|
|||||||
1969-1971 1971-1973 1973-1975 1975-1977 1977-1979 1979-1981 |
91st 92nd 93rd 94th 95th 96th |
D D D D D D |
57 54 56 60 61 58 |
R R R R R R |
43 44 42 37 38 41 |
- 2 2 3 1 1 |
Nixon (R) Nixon (R) Nixon(R) Ford (R) Carter (D) Carter (D) |
|
|||||||
1981-1983 1983-1985 1985-1987 1987-1989 1989-1991 1991-1993 |
97th 98th 99th 100th 101st 102nd |
R R R D D D |
53 55 53 55 54 56 |
D D D R R R |
46 45 47 45 46 44 |
1 - - - - - |
Reagan (R) Reagan (R) Reagan (R) Reagan (R) GHW Bush (R) GHW Bush (R) |
|
|||||||
1993-1995 1995-1997 1997-1999 1999-2001 2001-2003 2003-2005 |
103rd 104th 105th 106th 107th 108th |
D R R R D R |
57 52 55 55 50 51 |
R D D D R D |
43 48 45 45 49 48 |
- - - - 1 1 |
Clinton (D) Clinton (D) Clinton (D) Clinton (D) G.W. Bush (R) G.W. Bush (R) |
But take a look at the house in that same era. There were only two GOP terms up til 1994, and one congress was pretty slim. And add to the fact that FDR created a welfare country. Well, is it any wonder we are battling for conservative values today, when even the republicans don't know what real limited government is? Especially look where we've come since 1937. And people on FR think this is going to be a piece of cake when historical data indicates otherwise. In other words, getting a real majority of conservative republicans can be done in 6 years is a pipe dream. It's going to take a LONG time. And what have you done do advance conservativism, other than post on a chat site?
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|||||||
1933-1935 1935-1937 1937-1939 1939-1941 1941-1943 1943-1945 |
73rd 74th 75th 76th 77th 78th |
D D D D D D |
313 322 334 262 267 222 |
R R R R R R |
117 103 88 169 162 209 |
5 10 13 4 5 4 |
F.Roosevelt (D) F.Roosevelt (D) F.Roosevelt (D) F.Roosevelt (D) F.Roosevelt (D) F.Roosevelt (D) |
|
|||||||
1945-1947 1947-1949 1949-1951 1951-1953 1953-1955 1955-1957 |
79th 80th 81st 82nd 83rd 84th |
D R D D R D |
242 246 263 235 221 232 |
R D R R D R |
191 188 171 199 213 203 |
2 1 1 1 1 - |
F.Roosevelt (D) Truman (D) Truman (D) Truman (D) Eisenhower (R) Eisenhower (R) |
|
|||||||
1957-1959 1959-1961 1961-1963 1963-1965 1965-1967 1967-1969 |
85th 86th 87th 88th 89th 90th |
D D D D D D |
234 283 263 259 295 247 |
R R R R R R |
201 153 174 176 140 187 |
- 1 - - - - |
Eisenhower (R) Eisenhower (R) Kennedy (D) Kennedy (D) L.Johnson (D) L.Johnson (D) |
|
|||||||
1969-1971 1971-1973 1973-1975 1975-1977 1977-1979 1979-1981 |
91st 92nd 93rd 94th 95th 96th |
D D D D D D |
243 255 242 291 292 277 |
R R R R R R |
192 180 192 144 143 158 |
- - 1 - - - |
Nixon (R) Nixon (R) Nixon(R) Ford (R) Carter (D) Carter (D) |
|
|||||||
1981-1983 1983-1985 1985-1987 1987-1989 1989-1991 1991-1993 |
97th 98th 99th 100th 101st 102nd |
D D D D D D |
242 269 253 258 260 267 |
R R R R R R |
192 166 182 177 175 167 |
1 - - - - 1 |
Reagan (R) Reagan (R) Reagan (R) Reagan (R) GHW Bush (R) GHW Bush (R) |
|
|||||||
1993-1995 1995-1997 1997-1999 1999-2001 2001-2003 2003-2005 |
103rd 104th 105th 106th 107th 108th |
D R R R R R |
258 230 228 223 221 229 |
R D D D D D |
176 204 206 211 212 204 |
1 1 1 1 2 1 |
Clinton (D) Clinton (D) Clinton (D) Clinton (D) G.W. Bush (R) G.W. Bush (R) |
|
|||||||
2005-2007 |
109th |
R |
232 |
D |
202 |
1 |
G.W. Bush (R) |
Ouch! That'll leave a mark. Nice post!
Now, there's a worthy post and it deserves a thread of its own! Excellent post and research. Thank you, Indy!!!!
BTTT
Why you would attack a Libertarian voter for not voting for the Republican party is unclear.
The only reason why libertarians and members of the Libertarian party ever vote Republican is because they feel like positives of the fiscal conservative aspect of the party outweigh the negatives of its theocon side.
Unfortunately, over the last 6 years the GOP has become less and less fiscally conservative and began catering more and more to theocons.
The GOP being expecting libertarian voters is like an unattractive, unemployed guy being upset because a girl doesn't choose to be with him.
Sorry, it is what it is. You see it too.
I know NY Rockefeller Pubbie history quite well. Thank you. That's why NY's Conservative Party was started. They had some successes. The RINOs is in NY have always been too smart by half. Now NY has become doomed by demographics, immigration into and emigration from NY to points south and west. The overall state poulation hasn't changed much in decades, a little over 18 million. I'm not voting for pubbies that want un-Constitutional laws.
What a fabulous idea!!
Did you even bother to read my post? Prime example of the failure of Free Republic.
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