It's hard to tell. I think they're selling exclusive to DirecTV out of habit, they're so used to signing exclusive contracts for the packages that I'm not sure they sat down and did the math. The NFL does make mistakes. Supposedly they shopped this Thursday-Saturday package but never got the kind of offers they were looking for. Now I'm not sure that's true because they've been using it to try to leverage better position and rates for NFLN with Comcast and Time-Warner, but if it is true that they waved a package around and didn't get "proper" interest that could mean they've created too many packages.
Remember Fox stole from CBS, CBS stole from NBC, and now NBC stole from ESPN which kind of stole from ABC (before Fox entered the picture CBS had the NFC contract, NBC had AFC, ESPN had SNF and ABC had MNF). Next negotiation cycle Fox better watchout because ABC snagging from them would close the circle, while I don't think it's going to happen (The Mouse seems to think sports on ABC is no longer a good idea) it would be funny.
I still think the NFL can make more from Comcast, Cox, Time-Warner, Dish AND DirecTV than they're making from just DirecTV. Admittedly DirecTV is paying through the nose for the exclusive contract, but also DirecTV doesn't have that much market penetration, by opening up to cable and satelite I think the revenue stream would open wide. It's all blind guesses and unless the NFL decides to (or is forced to) open it up to non-exclusive we'll never know either way, but the blind guess I believe is that selling the same package 5 times will give you more money than the exclusive can.