Posted on 12/07/2006 2:26:57 PM PST by abb
Nielsen Media Research will offer clients raw data on how many people watch commercials minute by minute, giving television networks and advertising buyers new information to wield in a dispute over how to calculate prices for TV spots. Story continues below...
A Nielsen spokesperson Thursday said the roll-out of the raw data on broadcast commercial viewership will begin in a couple of weeks. Data on cable commercials will be available in late April and syndication commercial research will start flowing in late May.
The ratings company unveiled the plan to offer the data during a meeting it held Thursday for TV and advertising executives. Nielsen has been in the middle of a dispute between networks and ad buyers as they struggle to set prices for commercials in an age where many viewers delay viewing using digital video recorders.
Networks have pushed to set prices based on live viewers of commercials plus audiences who tune in over the next seven days using DVRs. Ad buyers have stuck to a live-plus one day standard.
More than one Nielsen client described today's meeting as constructive and said a lot of questions were answered to the participants' satisfaction.
"I think people are comfortable now that Nielsen can deliver data that is valid and reliable and that can be developed into a currency" for negotiating ad deals, said David Poltrack, executive VP for research and planning for CBS.
Nielsen can only deliver three streams of data compatible with clients' software programs for next-day delivery. The industry will have to agree on which of the three streams become the common currency.
"That doesn't have to happen for a while," said Alan Wurtzel, president of research and media development for NBC Universal.
Disagreements on the issue came to a boil at the last upfront advertising market, with ad buyers insisting that commercial time be bought and sold on the basis of live viewers, and live plus viewers who watch recorded shows the same day they air. Networks were rebuffed in their push to negotiate deals on the basis of live plus seven-day counts.
Nielsen earlier had suggested a live-plus two or three day compromise.
Ping
I don't have a DVR or TiVo so I don't know how the technology works, but if I recorded a show and skipped over the ads, how does this help anyone?
I rarely watch anything live anymore. Even sporting events I will let record for an hour and then start watching to skip the commercials. It's really bad if I'm at a friend's house and don't have the DVR. No rewind, no fast forward? How can you watch it?
I once said that the DVR was the greatest thing since sliced bread. Then I rationally thought about it and decided if I had to give up either the DVR or sliced bread, I would say "hand me the loaf and the bread knife".
Apparently, Neilsen's software can detect whenever someone channel surfs during commercials. But I do know the 'nets are fighting this hammer and tong, so they're scared of it and don't want the advertisers to really know whats going on...
You want all TV shows to move online?
It's not necessarily what I want - I think that within five to ten years, Television, the Internet and your PC will all be combined. You'll be able to download and watch via streaming any TV show that's ever been broadcast.
Since so many commericals have a higher volume level than the program I'm watching I usually mute the TV when a commercial comes on.
I'm spoiled by podcasts of Dennis Prager or Michael Medved... when I "have" to listen live, I get frustrated with the commercial and news breaks. The podcasts edit those out for me! Man I am spoiled. :)
Several years ago, the big 3 networks used to feature almost first run movies. Then somebody watched the water meters at large apartment complexes and noted exactly what times the wheels began to spin. Turns out, this correlated perfectly with long commercial breaks. It is my understanding that ad revenues dropped significantly when the results of the study leaked out. (pun intended)
The exception to me is Budweiser, which I think does a great job of targeting their young male demographic, and I always recognize their ads, even though I don't drink beer.
1. Nielsen doesn't monitor the volume of your TV
2. Nielsen is not monitoring the habits of every TV viewer/household. You have to be approached by Nielsen to become a Nielsen Household.
3.The "Water Pressure" story is more folklore than fact.
4.Eventually, ratings will be estimated using audio tags embedded in ALL programming. The "can't be heard by human ears" sounds will be picked up by pager-size devices worn by persons who agree to keep the devices on their bodies and then pop them into a docking device whereby Nielsen will be able to access the data. This system has undergone a number of trials alongside Nielsen't current diary system. Broadcasters DO NOT like this system but they are going to have to live with it if they are to continue selling their wares to advertisers. Broadcasters do not pay the bills. The entities who control the cash will decide and there is nothing the Networks will be able to do to stop it.
5. "Commercial Ratings" is a bit of a misnomer since what is happening is a more granular reportage frequency. Minute-by-minute ratings (and even smaller frequencies)are what everybody is after.
6.Don't assume that Advertisers will alter their behaviour once they "realize that more and more poeple are not tuned into their commercials". The Advertisers are the ones who are and have been paying the most attention to this and know the most about it.
Of course the elephant in the room is internet advertising. Advertisers now have another medium for getting their message in front of their target eyeballs. It is apparently a much more efficient medium than "broadcast" television and newspapers. Used to, TV and newspapers had the game to themselves. Tain't so no more...
updated article...
http://www.mediaweek.com/mw/news/recent_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003494346
ielsen to Offer Full Minute-By-Minute Ratings Data April 24
John Consoli and Anthony Crupi
DECEMBER 07, 2006 -
Nielsen Media Research, at a meeting of more than 100 clients, said today that it will make available all the data necessary for the media agencies and TV networks to create their own minute-by-minute ratings for all dayparts, including DVR playback data, for intervals of up to seven days, beginning April 24, 2007.
The data will enable the television industry as a whole to begin using commercial ratings as an advertising buying currency if it so desires.
However, the April 24 date is just three weeks before the broadcast networks’ upfront presentations at which they will unveil their new programming for the 2007-08 season, and at which point negotiations for commercial buying for that season begins.
Some media agencies are now questioning whether or not this will permit commercial ratings data to be used as the currency in the upcoming upfront, since there will be little time to test the complete data before negotiations begin.
“It seems like this timetable will preclude us from having enough time to analyze the data, which will be test data, to make sure it is accurate and usable,” said Lyle Schwartz, senior vp, and director of research and audience analysis for Group M. “I am disappointed that we will not have the complete data sooner.”
But at least one broadcast network executive, David Poltrack, chief research officer, CBS Corp., said he expects that his network is planning to use the commercial ratings data Nielsen provides for those clients who want to buy based on commercial rather than programming ratings in the May upfront.
“We have already been testing this data which is available through Nielsen’s NPower service,” he said. “And by the time Nielsen releases the complete data in April, we will just have to see how our testing compares with the data Nielsen releases.”
Sean Cunningham, Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau president and CEO, was also of the opinion that the April 24 date could give executives sufficient leeway to use the new currency in their upfront negotiations. “It’ll be a squeaker, but in theory we could have a reasonably correct data to placate those vocal few who want to use the commercial ratings currency in the upfront,” he said.
Nielsen clients have to pay extra to subscribe to NPower, while the data Nielsen releases in April will become part of its regular syndicated ratings data, along with its program ratings.
Most Nielsen clients are expected to wait for that, rather than paying extra to subscribe to NPower and do the data translation themselves.
Poltrack described the meeting as “very constructive” and praised Nielsen for doing “a very good job of solving a lot of the problems and questions surrounding commercial ratings.”
While Nielsen will issue the complete commercial ratings data by late April, there are still a lot of kinks to work out. One is how to measure commercials viewed in playback on VCRs. Poltrack said media agencies are amenable to paying for commercials played back in regular mode and not fast-forward through by the viewers. But there is no way that the Nielsen system can measure that. He said he has asked Nielsen, which agreed, to do an “off-liine” study among its households to come up with some metric that will assign a value to VCR viewing played back in regular mode.
Nielsen said it will be up to the client base to determine whether minute-by-minute ratings, or the average commercial minute rating per show is used as a negotiating currency. And Nielsen continues to address the concerns of cable and syndication regarding average commercial minute-per-program ratings.
During today’s meeting, Nielsen (owned by Mediaweek parent VNU) presented an analysis of DVR playback that found that among adults 18-49, 76 percent played back broadcast network shows within two days, 85 percent played back ad-supported cable and syndicated TV shows within two days. The DVR playback within three days was 84 percent for the broadcast network shows, 89 percent for cable shows, and 91 percent for syndicated shows.
Other data showed that in homes with DVRs, among adults 18-49, nearly 50 percent of their prime time television usage is in DVR playback mode, much higher than the 18 percent for cable.
“It’s easy to see the reason why the broadcasters want to rush for a viable trading currency to be done in time for the next upfront,” said CAB’s Cunningham. “Think of how much money will be left on the table if they’re still selling on just a live-only basis.”
“The goal of today’s meeting was to bring clients together to seek feedback on what their needs are for commercial ratings,” said Sara Erickson, Nielsen general manager of national services. “This was a very productive meeting in which diverse opinions were expressed. We will continue to review the various options and seek additional opinions on what best meets the needs of the industry. It seems clear that there is no one-size-fits-all solution to commercial ratings, and that providing the industry with multiple tools is the best approach.”
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http://www.mediaweek.com/mw/news/recent_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003494346
"Next I expect that a show will only run in 75% of the screen with continual advertisements running at the bottom and the side of the screen like Fox News's news ticker."
If this happens, the next generation of sets will have selective cropping features to adjust the "good" part of the picture to fit your screen. With Hi-Def broadcasts, this will present acceptable loss of picture quality.
And THEN what will they come up with?
People call Interactive advertising (because it has evolved and continues to morph into more specialized types of "advertising" that is IP based) the elephant in the room. Sure it's a big issue but I think of it more like the room has become swarmed with all manner of insects.
The main difference between TV and the Internet is specialization and available ad inventory. In linear TV, you have just so much space to sell. You have to go with crawls or something more inventive if you're not buying the standard "Interrupt the program with a 15 or 30 second spot likely inside a pod with 5 or more other spots to dilute the impact of your spot". The Internet offers unlimited inventory, unlimited specialization and branding BUT that advantage only offsets the fact that the audience for MOST web pages is small. In aggregate the reach is huge. Only the biggest portals can offer big audiences (in the millions simultaneously) at one site and the cost of advertising on those home pages is correspondingly large. If you have a product or service that is highly specialized and your target audience is similarly highly concentrated, advertising on the internet is a dream come true. Your waste goes WAAAY down.
The Networks are losing share of ad budgets, that's a given. For them to survive, they have to become creative in what adspace they have to sell. The 30-second spot is not dead and TV is still the most efficient medium for hitting the most eyeballs at once. What you will be seeing more and more of is product placements and endorsements/sponsorships (just like the 1950's). The networks are going to have to get REALLY creative to stop advertisers from being lured to other platforms. In the next 5-10 years, you will see TV change dramatically.
I began intensively reading about this phenomenon and posting related articles about a year ago. I've always been a news junkie and have followed news about the news for many years. For several months now I have said that by the end of the decade, network TV as we know it today will cease to exist...
Some insider stuff ....
There are to kinds of NPower clients: Networks and the largest of the Ad Agencies.
Networks use the system primarily to examine SOURCE AND DESTINATION. Finguring out how much a program lost or gained in viewers and WHERE THEY CAME FROM/WENT TO. You could imagine how useful such audience flow data would be to many levels of responsibility at any given network. I could go on for pages describing different scenarios/applications. In general, the networks use the data to do endless tweaks to schedule, program choice and content.
Advertisers are using that same data to do deeper examinations of TV content and scheduling, Consider it the more academic side of analysis. Figuring out scenarios and situations you want to avoid investing your client's money in.
The networks are and have been shortsighted (who spends $10MM on a series order and then cancells it after 1 or two outings?). The advertisers have been playing the long game. It is getting more interesting.
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