WILL CHINA LEAD A STAMPEDE OUT OF THE US DOLLAR? (Very informative charts!)

FinacialSense ^ | November 29, 2006 | Gary Dorsch

[GodGunsGuts]

WILL CHINA LEAD A STAMPEDE OUT OF THE US DOLLAR?

by Gary Dorsch

Editor, Global Money Trends Magazine

November 29, 2006

The $2 trillion per day foreign exchange market never sleeps. Yet for the past six months, the big-3 central banks, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan managed to lull the currency markets into a deep trance. Since last May, the big-3 central banks corralled the US dollar to within a 3% to 5% trading range against the British pound, the Euro and Japanese yen.

The big-3 central banks utilized their three major weapons, (1) relentless jawboning, (2) Japanese threats of intervention, and (3) coordinated rate hikes, telegraphed far in advance to avoid any nasty surprises in the markets. But the big-3’s spell-binding magic act began to wind down on November 25th, when Chinese deputy central banker Wu Xialong jolted the foreign currency markets, warning other Asian central bankers of the future risk of a US dollar devaluation.

Beijing is having second thoughts about the composition of its $1 trillion portfolio of FX reserves, with 70% held in low yielding US fixed income securities. “Firstly, long-term US interest rates are falling. Secondly, the exchange rate of the US dollar, which is the major reserve currency, is going lower, increasing the depreciation risk for east Asian reserve assets,” Wu said.

On October 10th, Fan Gang, another member of People’s Bank of China’s policy committee, made similar comments, “China risks an erosion of its holdings because the US dollar will probably decline.” On August 29th, Gang wrote, “The US dollar is no longer a stable anchor in the global financial system, nor is it likely to become one, therefore it is time to look for alternatives.”...

[GodGunsGuts]

Feel free, as long as it relates to Red China, the Eurasian Alliance, or the US economy.

[arthurus]

I have, but I don't think China will do it until they are within a month of invading Taiwan. They would use the tactic to degrade our economy as much as possible even though they will degrade their own far worse, but then, they are still Communists, and if they get what they want, what is a few years of famine?

[GodGunsGuts]

Exactly. Especially when they have almost 100% control of the population courtesy of their Communist Police State.

[Frank Sheed]

Isn't this the argument that was used in fear of the Saudis in the late 70s and the subject of a movie called something like "$$$?"

The net result is that China loses too since it is on a huge change in its demography with billions entering cities to find jobs. How is that factored in? Also, why is Europe threatening exchange rate fixes to prop up AirBus? It seems Europe is going down first.

Nemo

[GodGunsGuts]

Why does everyone assume that Red China is strictly interested in their economy. They are using the Free Market to build their Communism dictatorship and expand their influence...to take that great leap forward. And we are paying them to do it.

[mr_hammer]

Look at what is happening in CA. Reports have stated that 40% of labor is off the books. Who is funding the tax base and what problems have been created in that state via undocumented inhabitants.

Look at what having children out of wedlock has done to the inner cities?

You see, immoral behavior for whatever reason tears apart the social fabric of society and the economy associated with it.

For proof look over the big pond east of DC, better yet. What happened to the Roman Empire?

[Frank Sheed]

A few bucks a day for a low skilled peasant buys a lot of political security when close to 700 million people may be apt to show their unhappiness at living conditions or crummy food.

[mr_hammer]

"Why does everyone assume that Red China is strictly interested in their economy"

You are right, they don't care about there aconomy. It is just the path to their goal.

[arthurus]

Europe is going down. There is some question whether Eurosocialism and depopulation will sink them first or whether Islamicizaton and depopulation will do the job.

[GodGunsGuts]

Your preaching to the choir. Actions have consequences. And trading with a gigantic enemy will have equally gigantic consequences IMO. Thanks for the extra dose of morality. When people start talking about morality, Natural Law--you know, the stuff this country was founded on--I'm all ears :o)

[D.P.Roberts]

There are four stages to a selloff like this.

Stage one- quiet accumulation of gold by insiders.

Stage two- institutional interest in gold.

Stage three- public notice and charts go vertical at which time the game is up and

Stage four- All investers flee the currency and the losers haul out the wheelbarrows.

[arthurus]

I suspect Bush's refusal to stanch the Latin flood is because he fears a Mexican revolution if we don't drain off the disaffected population. So we are getting the restless millions here. At some point I think those millions will realize that conversion to Islam will give them Aztlan from the Rio Grande to Kennebunk. Then we will go to 40-100 million saracens in a couple of years and sharia will be a looming presence.

[crghill]

If China launched economic warfare, the U.S., with the stroke of a pen, would cancel the debt they hold!

[GodGunsGuts]

Very well put. And for the record, when the FED starts doing what Volcker did back at the beg. of the 1980s, it will be time to exit gold! In the meantime, PMs will continue their upward ascent.

[plain talk]

like investing in China.

[GodGunsGuts]

Speaking of Volcker:

Stormy end to November may spell disaster for the dollar

By Edmund Conway and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Last Updated: 7:40pm GMT 28/11/2006

Market report

Markets worldwide are braced for a stormy week of trading, amid fears that the plunging dollar will cause stocks and shares to tumble.

With the dollar expected to fall further, some are even forecasting that the pound could sail through the $2-mark in the days ahead.

After the long Thanksgiving weekend, the US wakes up today to concerns that Europe and Asia may not be able to be engines of global growth if America slows next year.

The Dow Jones has remained robust, recently hitting a high on hopes that the US housing slump would prove short-lived. However recent data has suggested that the plunge in new home sales could have serious knock-on effects for the wider economy. This has prompted fears that US corporate profits could disappoint next year.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon start cutting interest rates, and hints from the Chinese central bank that it might diversify its currency reserves, have prompted funds to sell off dollars, causing the greenback to fall last week to an 18-month low against the euro and the pound. Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co, said: "We may be entering a period of trouble for stocks and a sharp drop in the dollar may provide more excuses to sell."

advertisementAmerica fears falling house prices will drive shoppers away from the high street. Retail giant Wal-Mart said its like-for-like sales dropped 0.1pc in November. However, a survey yesterday showed sales on so-called "Black Friday", the busiest shopping day of the year, rose by a healthy 6pc.

Many market watchers had been anticipating the dollar's slide for months, none more so than Paul Volcker, former Fed chairman. He said: "It's incredible people have gone on so long holding dollars."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/11/27/cnecon27.xml

[arthurus]

And all of it goes back to W's Devaluation that he announced in his first months in office. Actually it had begun in, I believe the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2000 but W was the one to proclaim it. That Devaluation is not a one-time thing but a signal that the FED was embarked on a long inflation. The rise in the price of gold was a direct measurement of that inflation until the late spike to $727 or so. That represented the unease in the market as the finance people thought the inflation had gone on long enough and worried that it wasn't going to stop. So the FED didn't raise rates for a couple of times and the market cooled but the inflation is still happening and China is still sucking it up. And the price of gold is continuing to rise on a higher track than before the spike as if the inflation-money creation rate has actually increased. And forget that nonsense about trying to control inflation by fiddling with the interest rates. The fiddling is done in response to inflation.

[Alia]

Beijing is having second thoughts about the composition of its $1 trillion portfolio of FX reserves, with 70% held in low yielding US fixed income securities. “Firstly, long-term US interest rates are falling. Secondly, the exchange rate of the US dollar, which is the major reserve currency, is going lower, increasing the depreciation risk for east Asian reserve assets,” Wu said.

They sound uncertain as to which market to move to.

[GodGunsGuts]

It can be tempting, but not a chance. There are plenty of ways to make a profit other than investing in Red China.

[plain talk]

Depends on one's definition of profit. China is up 51% for the year. Incredible run. Another 3% increase today alone.