'Avalanchas' Over Chavez Polls

INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY ^ | 28 Nov 2006 | Editorial Staff

[Kitten Festival]

Latin America: Venezuela has a presidential election Sunday. Polls show Hugo Chavez all set for re-election, but over in Caracas, photos show vast "avalancha" rallies for his rival. What gives?

But Venezuela's opposition calls those polls skewed, not just by the small samples, and their Chavez sponsorship, but the failure of U.S.-based pollsters to control for Venezuela's "fear factor," which keeps Venezuelans from revealing their true opinions out of fear of reprisals.

After all, oil workers have been directly threatened with firing by Venezuela's energy minister and Chavez has warned them to go into exile if they fail to vote for him. Other officials have suggested balloting won't be secret.

A look at the questions in one poll, put out by AP-IPSOS this week, underscores this.

Per Kurowski, a former World Banker, wrote in an open letter to AP that its own AP-IPSOS poll revealed the voters' fear: In it, 54% of 2,500 respondents expressed some distrust in how the votes will be counted, 58% expressed concern about ballot secrecy, and a whopping 71% expressed concern about reprisals for voting against Chavez.

Worse yet, Kurowski noted that these pollsters conducted face-to-face interviews asking respondents the exact names of Chavista government programs they benefited from. By contrast, polls conducted anonymously, like one by Penn, Schoen & Berland, showed pre-election electoral projections in a dead heat, or with Rosales slightly ahead.

There's precedent for this fear factor in semi-communist regimes. In Nicaragua's 1990 election, the incumbent Marxist Sandinistas led every poll — and were stunned to find themselves thrown out on election day. Fearful Nicaraguans, en masse, had lied to the pollsters.

P.J. O'Rourke, in "Give War A Chance," explained out how and why it happened: "You can imagine the poll-taking process:

[the Real fifi]

Hi, Kitten. Another great IBD article.

[sgtbono2002]

I am sure Jimmy Carter wouldnt let anything that wasnt strictly legitimate happen during this election.

[KoRn]

Chavez will probably win 95% of the vote. At least that's what it will look like and Jimmy Carter will put his seal of approval on the outcome.

[Uncle Meat]

Does anyone really think pug face will step down if he loses this election?

[popdonnelly]

Chavez is going to do whatever he can to put the fix in. Do you really think this stinking pile of ego intends to lose?

[popdonnelly]

Jimmy Carter can go to Hell.

[JewishConservative]

Of course this election is fixed. Its too bad they were unable to overthrow Chavez in 2002, when his opponents had their best opportunity. All Americans need to know that Chavez is an enemy of the United States. Chavez will get his commupence one day. Boycott Citgo!

[libs_kma]

"Jimmy Carter can got to Hell"

Yes he can, and he even has friends there he can stay with.

[Levante]

"Pug face" LOL! Good one!

I always thought Chavez' face looked like it had been set on fire and then put out with an icepick.

[Kenny Bunk]

Ping-0-rama

[Alia]

but the failure of U.S.-based pollsters to control for Venezuela's "fear factor," which keeps Venezuelans from revealing their true opinions out of fear of reprisals.

There's the truth.

Charlie Reese, US columnist in a column today asserts he'd rather have Chavez as President than President Bush. FYI.

[Kitten Festival]

The guy is insane. I hope he GETS Chavez as his president and leaves the rest of us alone.

[StJacques]

A Latin American Left Watch ping here.

Kenny Bunk, thank you for the ping and Kitten Festival, this is an excellent article you have posted here. The "Fear Factor" is precisely the determinant of the polls conducted and the Penn, Schoen, & Berland poll, which continues to show a dead heat with Rosales perhaps slightly ahead, is the one I trust most. It is my opinion that the author of the thread article gets it right when he puts the variation of the poll results up in light of what has been going on in the campaign in Venezuela with regard to intimidation of civil and state employees by the Chavez regime as well as concerns that the fingerprint-id machines used at polling places, i.e. the captahuellas, could be used to target Chavez regime opponents.

You cannot look at poll results in Venezuela without taking the environment in which the polls were conducted into account. VCrisis.com has come down really hard on the Associated Press on this very issue, for its recent AP-Ipsos poll. So be careful when you read poll results for the Venezuelan election. And keep in mind, as the pollster for Penn, Schoen, and Berland made clear; that in 1990 Daniel Ortega led in every pre-election poll conducted in Nicaragua only to lose handily to Violeta Chamorro. Venezuela presents a similar analogy.

And just to soothe the visual senses, take a look at the turnout for Manuel Rosales this past weekend at his "campaign closing" march through Caracas. The Mayor of a Caracas suburb estimated the turnout for the rally at "less than one million four hundred thousand."

Closing Rally for Manuel Rosales in Caracas
November 25, 2006

Photos by Aleksander Boyd of VCrisis.com

 

Chavez is getting an eyeful from the Helicopter circled in red observing the march

Closer view of crowd winding into city center

The view from behind Rosales

[Kenny Bunk]

I never will understand the violent hatreds of the Left.

I have been counseling the son of an old friend, quite an ardent Leftist. The kid, all of 23 years old, is consumed with hatred of Nixon(?) and Bush (?!)almost to the point of commitment to an institution. Hopeless marijuana-fueled ignorance... after a $100,000 "education."

Perhaps this mindset is genetic. His Dad has outgrown the worst of it. I.E., he no longer equates members of the Republican Party with NAZIs, having at least figured out where he would be if they really were!

[StJacques]

"I never will understand the violent hatreds of the Left. . . ."

I think it really comes down to a hatred of the different ways in which people think. At their heart, leftists cannot stand that people think differently than they do and they are more than willing to punish those who disagree with them as a consequence. They are absolutely convinced that, if only everyone thought the same way then everything could be fixed. And they will never understand that people WILL think differently, no matter what. It's that freedom to disagree that they hate most, though they recognize that lip service must be paid to the principle it embodies.

[3AngelaD]

I chalk up the violent hatreds of the left to their need to feel morally superior to everyone, exacerbated by poor critical thinking skills. Jimmy Carter is Exhibit A.

[Alia]

I think it really comes down to a hatred of the different ways in which people think

I think you are right. I think this is also why liberals make such "kiss-up" hay over multi-culturalism as a pretense to hiding their hatred of differences.

I've always considered liberals control freaks. Everything is only relevant to the liberal "self", and the liberal think paradise could be had on earth if everyone ELSE would just give up their individuality and be just like the liberal. The spoiled child syndrome.

[Alia]

I Love these Photos! :)

[Alia]

People like Chavez and his supporters never DO leave anyone else alone. It's a personal power trip for them, and where's the power if ya can't lord it over others and bully 'em. To avoid intragroup brawling, they have to go find others to pester. It's thug/gang behavior. There's always gotta be some newer turf to claim, some newer group to terrorize. Otherwise, the group turns inwards and begins fighting and killing each other.