Posted on 11/19/2006 2:41:41 PM PST by Mr. Brightside
CIA analysis finds no Iranian nuclear weapons drive: report
Sat Nov 18, 11:18 PM ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) - A classifed draft CIA assessment has found no firm evidence of a secret drive by Iran to develop nuclear weapons, as alleged by the White House, a top US investigative reporter has said.
Seymour Hersh, writing in an article for the November 27 issue of the magazine The New Yorker released in advance, reported on whether the administration of Republican President George W. Bush was more, or less, inclined to attack Iran after Democrats won control of Congress last week.
A month before the November 7 legislative elections, Hersh wrote, Vice President Dick Cheney attended a national-security discussion that touched on the impact of Democratic victory in both chambers on Iran policy.
"If the Democrats won on November 7th, the vice president said, that victory would not stop the administration from pursuing a military option with Iran," Hersh wrote, citing a source familiar with the discussion.
Cheney said the White House would circumvent any legislative restrictions "and thus stop Congress from getting in its way," he said.
The Democratic victory unleashed a surge of calls for the Bush administration to begin direct talks with Iran.
But the administration's planning of a military option was made "far more complicated" in recent months by a highly classified draft assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency "challenging the White House's assumptions about how close Iran might be to building a nuclear bomb," he wrote.
"The CIA found no conclusive evidence, as yet, of a secret Iranian nuclear-weapons program running paallel to the civilian operations that Iran has declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency," Hersh wrote, adding the CIA had declined to comment on that story.
A current senior intelligence official confirmed the existence of the CIA analysis and said the White House had been hostile to it, he wrote.
Cheney and his aides had discounted the assessment, the official said.
"They're not looking for a smoking gun," the official was quoted as saying, referring to specific intelligence about Iranian nuclear planning.
"They're looking for the degree of comfort level they think they need to accomplish the mission."
The United States and other major powers believe Iran's uranium enrichment program is ultimately aimed at producing fissile material for nuclear weapons.
Iran insists it will use the enriched uranium only to fuel nuclear power stations, something it is permitted to do as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The major powers have been debating a draft United Nations resolution drawn up by Britain, France and Germany that would impose limited sanctions on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile sectors for Tehran's failure to comply with an earlier UN resolution on halting enrichment.
On Wednesday, Israel's outgoing US ambassador Danny Ayalon said in an interview that Bush would not hesitate to use force against Iran to halt its nuclear program if other options failed.
"US President George W. Bush will not hesitate to use force against Iran in order to halt its nuclear program," Ayalon told the Maariv daily.
Israel, widely considered the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear power, views Iran as its arch-foe, pointing to repeated calls by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to wipe the Jewish state off the map.
no firm evidence
That's from an agency that has no one on the ground over there. I think I would discount it.
You have got to love the leaks.LOL!
Ok, CIA say Iraq has wmd.....they didn't.
CIA say Iran doesn't want nukes...THEY DO.
Seems like fair logic.
Not true. They've had Ted Koppel over there for months.
Well of course we have found no secret nuclear program. Iran has been quite open about it...
I also forgot about Sean Penn... shame on me!
Leaks, leaks and more leaks.
And how many arrests?
The next Bush Cabinet Big who needs to check out is AG Gonzalez who is conspicuously missing in action.
Also - CIA certain Soviets will not move on Hungary!
Seymour Hersh again. I'm bookmarking this article for the time when the Iranians test their first bomb, as seems fairly likely at this point. That, of course, Hersh will call somebody else's fault at that point but it will be handy to have to shove in his face.
Who wrote the report? Valerie Plame? ;-)
That's true. It's not a secret.
Not making up my mind until I hear from Scott Ritter.
CIA Report Cites Continuing Weapons Proliferation
By Merle D. Kellerhals, Jr.
Washington File Staff Writer
Washington - Nations determined to maintain or expand their weapons
of mass destruction (WMD)and ballistic missile development programs
have been significantly insulating them against interdiction and
disruption, a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) report says.
Additionally, the CIA report said that many of the countries that have
developed WMD and missile programs are rapidly trying to build
indigenous production capabilities to make themselves less dependent
on outside suppliers.
"Although these capabilities may not always be a good substitute for
foreign imports - particularly for more advanced technologies - in
many cases they may prove to be adequate," the semi-annual report
said. "In addition, as their domestic capabilities grow, traditional
recipients of WMD and missile technology could emerge as new suppliers
of technology and expertise."
The unclassified CIA report, "Acquisition of Technology Relating to
Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions," is
sent to Congress every six months. The current report, released
February 23, covers the period from January 1 to June 30, 2000.
The current report analyzes WMD and missile technology acquisition by
Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Libya, Syria, Sudan, India, Pakistan, and
Egypt, and also examines the key suppliers Russia, North Korea, China
and western nations.
"Some countries of proliferation concern are continuing efforts to
develop indigenous designs for advanced conventional weapons and
expand production capabilities, although most of these programs
usually rely heavily on foreign technical assistance," the report said
current trends suggest. "Many of these countries - unable to obtain
newer or more advanced arms - are pursuing upgrade programs for
existing inventories."
The CIA said it remains very concerned about Russian weapons
proliferation behavior, as a key supplier, and monitoring "will remain
a very high priority."
"Russian entities during the reporting period continued to supply a
variety of ballistic missile-related goods and technical know-how to
countries such as Iran, India, China, and Libya," the CIA said.
The reason for continued Russian proliferation stems, at least partly,
from Moscow's need for "badly needed foreign exchange through exports"
from the state-run defense and nuclear industries, which are also
strapped for funds, the report said.
The CIA said that because Iran was able to obtain technology and
materials from Russia, it accelerated Iranian development of the
Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM).
In addition Russia has remained a significant source of dual-use
biotechnology, chemicals, production technology, and equipment for
Iran. "Russia's biological and chemical expertise make it an
attractive target for Iranians seeking technical information and
training on biological warfare (BW) and chemical warfare-agent (CW)
production processes," the report said.
North Korea continues to export significant ballistic missile-related
equipment and missile components, materials, and technical expertise
to countries in the Middle East, South Asia, and North Africa, the CIA
said.
The report also said China has continued to provide substantial
missile-related technical assistance to Pakistan. It has also provided
assistance to Iran, North Korea and Libya, the report said.
Iran remains one of the most active countries seeking to acquire WMD
and advanced conventional weapons technology from abroad to develop an
indigenous capability to produce biological, chemical and nuclear
weapons, the CIA said. It has sought the technology from Russia,
China, North Korea, and Western Europe.
"Iran, a Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) party, already has
manufactured and stockpiled several thousand tons of chemical weapons,
including blister, blood, and choking agents, and the bombs and
artillery shells for delivering them," the report said.
The CIA report may be viewed on the Web at
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/bian/bian_feb_2001.htm
(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International
Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Website:
http://usinfo.state.gov)
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