Posted on 11/19/2006 7:06:18 AM PST by Yomin Postelnik
This summer I wrote a guide that I think would have been helpful in '06. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1688222/posts It's long and drawn out but it needed to cover all of the points that it did. It can and should be used now to help the GOP but winning in '08 is somewhat simpler. A strong national message will definitely help but there are simple things we can do on a race by race level.
For starters, winning the Senate in '08 (or keeping it if the Dems manage to turn off Lieberman or even Tester) seems more than doable. Off hand, it seems that we actually have an advantage. Don't be fazed by the number of seats facing reelection (21R - 12D). There are only 3 or 4 GOP that need protection (NH, MN, CO and maybe OR) and the Dems are extremely vulnerable in cases where you'd least expect it.
Here are the top potentials for the GOP in the Senate and who to run in each.
LA - Suzie Terrell, Bobby Jindal
MT - Marc Racicot - He refused before when asked only once (after the candidate withdrew late in the race) but give him a 2 year start and enough funding (and prodding) and let's see if he bites.
AR - Gov. Huckabee - He needs to be told that a Presidential bid is a non-starter and needs to be given strong incentives to run.
SD - Mike Rounds
NJ - Lautenberg may not run again. Even if he does, he's weak compared to Christine Todd Whitman. Sure, she may be the next coming of Lincoln Chafee but I think she'd be more of an Olympia Snowe, her book notwithstanding and that's a chance we'd have to take.
MA - John Kerry is seriously damaged goods. So is any Republican running for Senate in MA. But enter former Governor Celucci and the Dems have a race where they least expect it. Yes, they'll try to brand him as they do with all Republicans, but that doesn't always work and Kerry has more than his fair share of problems. If Celucci reminds people of the reasons for his popularity in MA we'll have a race on our hands.
Other races potentially up for grabs include IL (Turban Durbin), IA (radically left Harkin) and even DE if Biden retires from the Senate and a suitable GOP candidate is found). In CO, if Sen. Allard retires, the GOP would be well advised to look at retiring Gov. Owens. He is still seen as an excellent Governor and is a popular choice. Rockefeller in WV can also be exposed for the ultra-liberal that he is and the danger to national security that he is. Hagel in Nebraska needs to be given every incentive not to retire and some pundits are even looking at a return of Chafee in RI against weaker and less known Dem. Jack Reed (not that this thrills anyone but you've got to take what you can get and Chafee is better than Reed - if he runs as a Republican).
Some of these candidates won't readily wish to run and that's an understatement. Recruitment therefore needs to start now. It took a lot of coaxing to get many of our best candidates to run in '02 and it's fair to expect that this time they will need to be offered many incentives. Appointments can be given to them now and other incentives need to be looked at as well. The GOP can't accept their refusals and needs to pursue them vigorously.
By the way, Miss Marple has an excellent thread on the '06 election.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1740408/posts
We have to hold on to all of GOP seats and pick up one:
Three problem races:
1) Sen John Warner (R-Va) - May retire or be a victim of a Rhino hunt.
2)Libby Dole (R-NC) - May retire, getting old.
3) Goober Lindsay Graham (R-SC)- I would vote for Lindsay Lohan for US Senate before I would consider voting for Lindsay Graham for anything anymore.May be the victim of a Rhino hunt.
Durbin will get a run for his money if Mark Kirk (IL-10) runs for the seat.
I'm going to disagree with the Mike Rounds suggestion. He would be a better choice as congressman, against Ms Herseth. To run out of the box against Tim Johnson does not make much sense to me. Mr Johnson is a respected Senator, in ways far more positive than Mr Daschle, and would likely win against a novice, especially considering the committees and power of Mr Johnson.
If Mike Rounds can win against the incumbent congresswoman, he will have proven himself and could then six years later, total of ten from now, run against Johnson. Provided he didn't get beaten by someone else in the interim, and if Ms Herseth doesn't elect to run against John Thune, and elects to stay in the House, and be run against by Mr Rounds.
I think the Democrat's own Warner would be favored against either Tom Davis or George Allen should the Republican's Warner retire.
They wanted Claudia Kennedy (Maj Gen ret) to run against Warner in 2002. They may try to convince her to run to catch the "woman" wave in 2008 if Hillary runs.
Two of those three races are in firmly Republican states. I would suggest that the three problem races are going to be Norm Coleman (Minnesota), Gordon Smith (Oregon), and possibly Wayne Allard (Colorado). If Pat Roberts (Kansas) or Susan Collins (Maine) or Pete Domeinici (New Mexico) decide to retire then their seats have to be considered at risk as well.
Domenici and Collins recently said they would not retire and run for another term.
Hi, I think Dole will stay but with the others, I hope we try to keep the Rhino hunts in the primaries. That does some damage to the candidates, but not irreparably so. The only Rhino hunts that should be done in general elections are sometimes on a state or local level.
Terrell was a fiasco. Jindal is running for Governor. The odds-on choice to run is Dr. Charles Boustany.
"MT - Marc Racicot - He refused before when asked only once (after the candidate withdrew late in the race) but give him a 2 year start and enough funding (and prodding) and let's see if he bites."
Racicot is a RINO, and highly unreliable. We should recruit Dennis Rehberg.
"AR - Gov. Huckabee - He needs to be told that a Presidential bid is a non-starter and needs to be given strong incentives to run."
Huckabee just presided over the complete collapse of the GOP at the statewide level, and his "wedding registry" gaffe is appalling. The entire party in the state needs to be revitalized from the grass-roots up, and Huckabee needs to go away.
"SD - Mike Rounds"
100% agree, although Johnson has high approval ratings.
"NJ - Lautenberg may not run again. Even if he does, he's weak compared to Christine Todd Whitman. Sure, she may be the next coming of Lincoln Chafee but I think she'd be more of an Olympia Snowe, her book notwithstanding and that's a chance we'd have to take."
Laut says he is running again, and Harry Reid gets diaper duty. As for CTW, I would vote for Menendez before I'd support her for dogcatcher. She obliterated the NJ GOP as a viable force after it was the majority party in the '90s. She was the ultimate trojan horse RINO for the rodents.
"MA - John Kerry is seriously damaged goods. So is any Republican running for Senate in MA. But enter former Governor Celucci and the Dems have a race where they least expect it. Yes, they'll try to brand him as they do with all Republicans, but that doesn't always work and Kerry has more than his fair share of problems. If Celucci reminds people of the reasons for his popularity in MA we'll have a race on our hands."
Cellucci wouldn't get 40% of the vote. The state GOP is dead, Mitt Romney just laid the tombstone."
"Other races potentially up for grabs include IL (Turban Durbin),"
That disgusting pig should be the top target. Disembowling the 'Rat leadership. Too bad the IL GOP is as corrupt as the rodents.
"IA (radically left Harkin)"
Congressman Steve King should finally take out the trash.
"and even DE if Biden retires from the Senate and a suitable GOP candidate is found)."
Only Mike Castle has a shot, but he's too old and too liberal. The DE farm team is quite poor.
"In CO, if Sen. Allard retires, the GOP would be well advised to look at retiring Gov. Owens. He is still seen as an excellent Governor and is a popular choice."
Owens was a HORRIBLE Governor, destroyed the state GOP every inch as much as Whitman and Weld did in NJ & MA. I wouldn't support him for dogcatcher. Better Bob Schaffer, Scott McInnis, or Tom Tancredo.
"Rockefeller in WV can also be exposed for the ultra-liberal that he is and the danger to national security that he is."
Only Shelley Moore Capito has a shot statewide, but she doesn't want to risk a safe seat. WV hasn't elected a GOP Senator since 1956.
"Hagel in Nebraska needs to be given every incentive not to retire"
We've got 3 excellent GOP Congressmembers who on their worst day would make a better Senator than Hagel on his best. He should retire.
"and some pundits are even looking at a return of Chafee in RI against weaker and less known Dem. Jack Reed (not that this thrills anyone but you've got to take what you can get and Chafee is better than Reed - if he runs as a Republican)."
Chafee may be a rodent by January, and would be obliterated by Reed, and he needs to be gone from politics forever. Time to recruit Mayor Laffey and show him the respect he deserves, although we might want to keep him in reserve to succeed Gov. Carcieri in 2010.
My thoughts exactly but it's still better to keep the Senate GOP and keep the Dems on the run.
Interesting and good analysis. The only thing is that some of the bigger names, while having Rino streaks, also have huge resources in terms of supporters, name recognition and general popularity among swing voters (the kind of voters who would vote for the Quix Rabbit if Katie Couric were to endorse him). Weld and Whitman aren't my cup of tea by any means but both remain popular among these swing voters. I don't want too many Rinos in power and see it as a long term threat to the nation and to the party as well, but I'd take a few over the liberal Dems the states they'd be running in have popped out. For example, I like Mayor Laffey a lot, but I don't think he can win against Reed, at least now. What about running Gov. Carcieri btw? We'd need to give him many incentives, but still.
Herseth is a Dem, but man is she cute.
Weld and Whitman both already ran for the Senate and lost. Weld is no longer a resident of MA, but of NY, and he tried to pull a stunt running 3rd party for Governor. He's no longer a popular figure, and his mismanagement of a college in KY which resulted in its being shut down was more evidence of his gross incompetence and negligence. As for Whitman, she blew a majority and installed the Supreme Court that endorsed the Torricelli switch (illegal under the state constitution, but, hey...), and now the state party is at its lowest point since Watergate and is no longer viable to run statewide, either for Governor or Senator (the fact that a liberal RINO with a golden name couldn't defeat a crooked 'Rat earlier this month demonstrated that perfectly).
As for Carcieri, even if he were to run against Reed, and if by a slim chance that he won, the 'Rat Lt Governor would then succeed him. Reed is simply one of those non-entities that get elected in heavily rodent (or even non-rodent) states that are hard to dislodge, unfortunately.
Firecrotch BADDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD !!!
Whatever happened to Owens? I remember a time when he was seriously discussed as "Presidential timber".
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