An overly aggresive and intolerant President, shows increasing unease with the results of Dec. 3d.
I am absolutely confounded by the numbers coming out of the pollsters. Over the years I had developed a list of the "good" and the "bad" pollsters and results tended to bunch up for those that had passed the test of time.
Not this time. Without delving too much on the specific numbers, there is a 21% difference between what I consider the good pollsters, which is truly unexplainable on the basis of techniques, no matter whether you want to argue fear, sloppy sampling and the like. To top it all of, we find ourselves in the midst of a poll war where obscure, unknown and non-existent pollsters are now supposed to be experts on Venezuela.
Add to this that in the past the one variable that even the good pollsters could not get right was abstention and I do not believe anyone has handle on who is ahead and by how much. I do try to remind myself of what pollster Segundo Cazalis, now deceased, used to tell me: Watch the slopes and the trends, not the levels.
Finally, I also have to wonder where Chavez' favorite pollster Seijas is? Why his silence" Where is he? Why no numbers from him this time around, if everyone knows he is working hard looking at this election?
All of this comes to mind because while Rosales seems to want to emphasize that he will win, the Government seems to be the one launching the largest number of obscure numbers, while being very aggressive about not allowing protests on Dec. 3d.I mean, if you want a fake number, how about Diosdado Cabello saying tonight that the floor for Chavez in this election will be the 70% level reached in the 2004 recall referendum.
Hello? It's OK to lie about the polls, but why does he have to come and lie about the past, faking a number that did not reach 60%, let alone 70%? Is this simple an attempt at manipulation? Driving away voters? Discouraging the opposition? Or is it simply trying to create an aura of invincibility so that no matter what happens on Dec. 3d., they can convincingly argue that Chavez won?
I just don't know, but I do have to take offense at Chavez' words He. Both Chavez and his VP Jose Vicente Rangel, keep talking about conspiracies and destabilizations, while the only ones that are calling for institutions to back only one side are precisely Chavez and his cohorts. All I have heard Rosales say is that if he wins he will make sure he collects his victory by making sure the audit is preformed, all votes are counted and no tricks are made. And he has asked the military to be neutral and institutional, making sure the will of the people and democracy are respected.
Chavez does not seem to be saying the same thing, forgetting about his brief love posture and once again being divisive and intolerant. Chavez threatens to shut down TV stations that allow messages of hate to be broadcast. Then the first thing all TV stations should do is to stop broadcasting his speeches full of hate, vile and disrespect for the citizens of Venezuela that do not agree with him. And when he says that the "Bolivarian democracy" is to be defended I have to wonder if that is some special class of democracy, different that the one in which I live in. Because, if on Dec. 3d. there is an attempt not to audit the 54% of votes promised, or to connect the voting machines before the tally sheet has been printed, I will be the first one to go out and defend democracy and the rights of those that voted that day.
And Chavez broadcasts his hate when he says the Armed Forces are "roja, rojita" and that anyone that is not is not a patriot, as if he had the monopoly on patriotism, while all he has done since 1992 is destroy people, lives and the democratic structure of this country only to satisfy his own personal ambitions.
And he goes as far as defending the repressive military plans he wanted to activate on April 11th. 2002 and which the military high command refused to obey. The infamous Plan Avila, which has been cataloged by human right groups as in violation of basic human rights principles. That is what Chavez defends today. Had Plan Avila been activated, we would be talking about hundreds of dead people that day, rather than the 22 that Chavez is directly responsible for and should one day be tried for his role in those deaths. And much like that April, Chavez seems ready to try again.
And while Chavez calls on his people to be vigilant, to fight for their revolution, Rosales' campaign coordinator Omar Barboza asks his supporters not be provoked, to be respectful and friendly to the Armed Forces and to act in a democratic and peaceful way. Contrast this with the statements by a General talking about "violent change" or Chavez supporter Lina Ron, calling for people to be ready and armed, which as far as I know has never been confr9onted by Chavez, Rangel or any other Government figure.
As I said at the beginning, I can't rationally say Rosales is ahead today, the evidence is murky, simply messed up, but Chavez renewed intolerance and aggressiveness indicates to me he is concerned that his mandate will be over on Dec. 4th. or that he may have to pull another dirty trick to keep it.
One thing is clear, no one that believes in democracy and what it implies in terms of respect for others and the peace and dialogue that Chavez asked for the other day, would even consider saying what the obscene autocrat said today.
His performance is enough to justify getting rid of him on Dec. 3d.
http://blogs.salon.com/0001330/
Why are U.S. soldiers willing to go to other countries and loose their lives helping the people of those countries obtain some form of democratic government?On the other hand,there are countries in South America that are being converted to communism against their will with almost no one willing to step up and say ...This has gone far enough and it is going to stop now...If this next election doesn't get the results necessary to allow the moderates to regain stability and some sanity in Venz.,I hope there are some Venz. people that love their country enough that they are willing to do more than talk about what needs to be done.There is a time to talk and a time to act.I think the talk time is almost over don't you?
Ron • 11/17/06; 9:17:40 PM #