Ping to this response to Founding Father's #17 above.
"
StJacques--you may want to translate the poll link immediately above."
Here's the translation of the body of the text of the post
at this link:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rosales 47, Chávez 43For the first time in the campaign, the unitary candidate exceeds the President in the tracking of the intention of voters.
This Friday, Rosales has an advantage over Chavez by 5 points. The national Chief Executive fell from 46% to 42%, while the aspirant climbed from 43% to 47%.
The celebrations of the La Chinita fair coincide with the first week of Rosales over the 40% barrier. This is the first important ascent over Chavez.
The undecideds fell, also for the first time to single digits and the result shows that the tendency of this sector inclines for a "change."
Since the 1st of November, Chavez fell 0.1% per day, while Rosales climbed 1% daily.
It is very difficult to prognosticate a result in a contest so polarized. Analysts consulted indicated that having a close contest is the most probable scenario.
Nevertheless, if the tendency of the tracking poll were to sustain itself for the next two weeks, Rosales could obtain a 53% to 57% [portion] of the vote, against one of 43% to 47% of the aspirant for reelection [Chavez]; which implies a distance of 6 points in the worst of the two cases.
But, as we have made clear, the tracking is a very sensible measurement of daily events. The numbers of this type of measurement, we continue to insist, are not suitable for cardiac patients. No specialist can assure that Chavez's stagnation or Rosales's growth will be maintained.
The explanations for today's behavior are several. Among those must be included that Chavez is paying by voter punishment, the effect of the recent corruption scandals. But it is the President himself who contributes most to this tendency: Friday he crowned the week with a speech given in [Isla] Maragarita in which he returned to underlining the dangers which are circling about the peace of the country and then turned around and set out against freedom of expression.
For their part, the Rosales propagandists seem to have fallen on account of being left with only a few days to win the undecideds and they have begun a race of great intensity towards the closing of the campaign. . . .
Note: Three paragraphs of untranslated campaign news follows in original . . . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
That reads like good news to me, so far as the campaign goes.
Do I need to mention that recognition of just this sort of possible outcome could be what motivates a Chavez crackdown?