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Hillary targets the Blue Dog voters
The Sunday Times ^ | November 12, 2006

Posted on 11/12/2006 2:15:27 AM PST by MadIvan

A new breed of conservative-leaning Democrats swung the midterm election, and could now unlock the door to the White House, writes Sarah Baxter

A COUPLE of years ago a small town — where the garden gnomes look like Uncle Sam, where there are almost as many churches as shops and where the local cleaning company is called Making Miracles — could have been marked down at a glance as Republican heartland.

After last week’s midterm elections, Bush country is no longer so easy to identify. Dumfries in Virginia, on the outskirts of the Marine Corps headquarters at Quantico, has been conservative for as long as anybody can remember. It still is. What has changed is that the voters elected Jim Webb, a proud “redneck” and right-wing Democrat, as their senator.

“For me, it was the war,” said Sandy Miller, a 56-year-old nurse, explaining her switch in support. “I just don’t think we should be over there in Iraq. They should be taking care of their own business.”

Miller regrets backing President George W Bush in 2004: “I’ve got nobody to blame but myself because I voted for him. I thought it was all terrorism, terrorism, but I was misled. I’d never vote for him again.”

Bush was in Dumfries on Friday to open the marines’ new $90m museum at Quantico. With its spire reflecting the angle of the famous flag planted by the marines at Iwo Jima, it would have been the perfect place for the commander-in-chief to savour victory.

“Years from now, when America looks out on a democratic Middle East growing in freedom and prosperity, Americans will speak of the battles like Falluja with the same awe and reverence that we now give to Guadalcanal and Iwo Jima,” Bush said hopefully.

History is more likely to record that it was here that Webb, a highly decorated ex-marine and former Republican navy secretary under Ronald Reagan, delivered a crippling blow to Bush’s presidency. Webb’s 8,805 majority in Virginia tipped control of the Senate to the Democrats after they had already won a projected 33-seat majority in the House of Representatives.

Karl Rove, the architect of Bush’s second-term victory, had gambled that social conservatives would deliver another win, despite the war’s unpopularity. It had been his dream to build a permanent majority by persuading the “values voters” of middle America — Christian, anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage and anti-gun control — to turn out for the Republicans at the polling booth.

He had not reckoned with the gun-toting Webb, whose son is serving in Iraq; nor Jon Tester, the senator-elect for Montana, a farmer with a buzz cut and three missing fingers; nor Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, who is anti-abortion, and a clutch of other socially conservative, economically populist Democratic candidates. “I’ve never seen so much raw testosterone in my life. The smell of sweaty jockstraps from the ‘new Democrats’ is overwhelming,” scoffed Ann Coulter, the conservative commentator.

Last week a new category of voters burst on the scene: the “Blue Dog” Democrats, conservative independents and moderates who turned on the scandal-ridden bungling Republicans. The future political map of America depends on whether the victorious Democrats can hold on to their support in 2008.

Terry McAuliffe, former chairman of the Democratic national committee, is already preparing for Hillary Clinton’s likely presidential run. He believes the midterm results represent a potentially historic shift for his party.

“It was a ‘throw the Republicans out’ election. Some people voted for us reluctantly but we have a terrific opportunity to get back the Reagan Democrats we lost in the 1980s,” he said.

Will Clinton be able to rally the Blue Dogs to her banner or will they flock to her rival, Senator John McCain, the Republican front-runner? Could a political newcomer such as Senator Barack Obama capture their imagination? Perhaps the most important lesson of the midterms is that no party or person can take American voters for granted.

At his first post-election press conference at the White House, Bush admitted that he had not been prepared for the scale of the “thumping” that the Republicans received. “I thought we were going to do fine yesterday — shows what I know,” he said ruefully.

The legendary Republican base demonstrated last week that it was not the “God, guns and gays” monolith of the 2004 presidential election. Nearly a third of white evangelical voters had backed the Democrats.

Miller describes herself as a “devout Christian” but does not see why that should give Bush a pass on Iraq. Besides, she agrees with the Democrats rather than her church on the need for federal funding of stem cell research. “I’ve got a cousin with Parkinson’s disease,” she said.

Those who stuck by the Republicans were not carbon-copy “values voters” either. Gwen Reedy, 50, an advertising saleswoman in Dumfries, said: “I like George Bush and I like his ethics, even though we could be doing a lot better in Iraq.”

Yet she could have voted for an amendment to ban same-sex marriage in Virginia on Tuesday and did not bother. “I don’t see the need to legalise gay marriage, but I don’t really care what people do,” she said.

In the midterm elections, middle America rooted itself firmly in the centre-ground of US politics. After Iraq, hurricane Katrina, record budget deficits and corruption scandals, the electorate voted to “kick out the bums”, from the mountain states of Montana and Colorado to Missouri, Ohio and Indiana in the Midwest and the East Coast redoubts of conservatism in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

The verdict is the same for the Democrats as for the Republicans: ignore the centre at your peril. In Dumfries, a 51-year-old ex-marine who preferred to remain anonymous because he works at Quantico, said: “I voted for Webb. I like him because he speaks his mind but I still think of myself as a Republican. I’d vote for them again if they had the right candidate.”

At Webb’s headquarters in Arlington, jubilant campaign volunteers made it clear they were “conservative” Democrats first and foremost. Some had voted Republican before, such as Chris Kervorkian, 36, who worked for McCain’s Republican presidential nomination in 2000.

“I own a small business and I don’t want the government down my throat,” he said. “Big government doesn’t work.”

McAuliffe, a veteran of the Clinton years when there was a divided Congress and White House, knows that the groundwork for the next presidential election is being laid now.

“Our future in 2008 is directly tied to how we do in 2007,” he said. As a close friend of Bill Clinton, he was at the president’s side during the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

“If anyone wants to settle scores it’s me, but I’m in the camp that says ‘move ahead’. Rove dreamt of a permanent Republican majority and he blew it,” he said.

Bush is already practising his paces as a consensus politician, mindful that he does not want to leave office with approval ratings in the doldrums. “You’re seeing the George Bush who has always been adept at playing the hand he is dealt,” said Charlie Black, a Republican consultant.

The president has offered the Democrats some modest concessions, such as a promise to increase the minimum wage from $5.15 an hour. He also hopes to work with them on immigration reform, where his ideas for a guest worker programme are at odds with his own party’s.

Both sides are waiting for the report of the Iraq study group, co-chaired by James Baker, the former Republican secretary of state, and Lee Hamilton, a Democrat, to offer bipartisan suggestions.

There are limits to the tentative courtship. Senate Democrats have already vowed to block the reappointment of John Bolton, the arch-conservative US ambassador to the United Nations. The likely Democratic committee chairmen in the House of Representatives are itching for retribution over Iraq. If the subpoenas start flying, there could be hand-to-hand combat in Congress.

Nancy Pelosi, the first female Speaker of the House, has promised that there will be no effort to impeach Bush for supposedly misleading the public during the run-up to the war, but there will be vigorous “oversight”.

Senior Democrats with a shrewd eye on 2008 are seeking to limit the investigations to areas where their own side stands to look patriotic as opposed to weak on national security. An important test will be whether Congress blocks approval for warrantless wiretaps of phone calls between the United States and foreigners with suspected ties to terrorism, an issue that the Republicans hope to exploit.

A prime target for investigators will be the faulty intelligence on weapons of mass destruction. The Downing Street memo about “fixing” the facts, leaked to The Sunday Times, will form a key part of the evidence.

The Democrats will also pore over no-bid contracts awarded to firms such as Halliburton and investigate the boggling levels of corruption in Iraq, where $9 billion of US taxpayers’ money has seemingly vanished into a black hole. According to a defence source there is plenty to uncover. “Americans won’t want their children dying for corrupt Iraqis,” the source said.

Few doubt that the behaviour of the Democrats in Congress will have a direct impact on the fortunes of the 2008 presidential candidates. Too much opposition and sympathy could swing back to the Republicans. Too much consensus and the Republicans could seem like “compassionate” conservatives and reconquer the centre.

Now the midterm elections are over, the race for the White House has started. McCain plans to set up a formal presidential “exploratory committee” next week. Last week’s punishment at the polls will have boosted his standing among demoralised Republicans as the candidate with the best chance of winning back conservative defectors.

He has taken the unpopular stance of arguing for more troops in Iraq, but his status as a former prisoner of war in Vietnam and his opposition to the torture of terrorist detainees has won him the trust of voters — although not diehard Republicans — on national security issues.

“I’ve always been popular with independents,” McCain said last week. “But I don’t know how independents feel right now. From what I see they are kind of unhappy.”

Mark McKinnon, a Bush loyalist who helped to run the 2004 campaign, said: “Voters said they want independence, they want bipartisanship and they want a voice of authority on Iraq and John McCain is all three.”

McCain faces a potential challenge from Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, who lacks the senator’s organisational muscle but has the greatest name recognition because of his courage during the September 11 attacks.

His personal life may count against him with social conservatives — he has been married three times — and he may find it difficult to win convincingly on his home turf after Hillary Clinton was re-elected to the Senate with 67% of the vote.

Clinton is not expected to announce that she is running until the new year. “All I’m doing is thinking about going back to work in Washington next week. I’m going to relish this victory,” she said.

“She has only just got through this campaign,” said McAuliffe. “The last thing she wants to do is to think about the next one.”

However, as Dick Morris, a former adviser to the Clintons, claimed in a recent book, they have been hoping for his-and-her presidencies ever since Bill won the White House in 1992.

Watchers of Hillary Clinton say that if she is wise she will draw to her side the macho Webb, boosting her credibility with Blue Dog Democrats across the rest of America in time for 2008. It could be tough going. One volunteer for Webb said dismissively: “She’s not a viable candidate. She’s trying to make herself into a conservative but she’s not.”

Another said: “My wife is a hippie liberal and she’s like, ‘I hope she doesn’t run’. We don’t need another hate figure like Bush.”

Some former members of Bill Clinton’s team are equally sceptical. One said: “It will be interesting to see if she decides to run. Her staff want her to, but she knows what she would have to endure. She’s not like Bill who can take that stuff, compartmentalise it and move on.”

At her heels is Obama, 45, the African-American senator for Illinois who has been in Congress for only two years. He has emerged to become Clinton’s top challenger on the back of a dazzling speech to the 2004 Democratic convention, an appearance on Oprah Winfrey’s television show and a bestselling book, The Audacity of Hope, which argues for replacing “the endless clash of armies” with a politics rooted in “faith and inclusiveness”.

Obama has been reaching out to social conservatives and winning friends in Congress across the political divide — following Hillary Clinton’s model. Aides whisper that if he stands, he will launch an immediate drive for voter registration in the South in an effort to bring one of the last Republican strongholds into the Democratic fold.

Just as Clinton was piling up votes in New York last week — including 20% of Republicans and conservative voters in the rural upstate communities that she has wooed intensively — a new poll by Rasmussen found that Obama was sneaking up on her in popularity. About 29% of respondents picked Clinton as their first choice for the Democratic nomination, followed by 22% for Obama.

Among “liberal” (left-wing) voters, Obama leads her by 25% to 23%, largely because of his opposition to the Iraq war. Other potential candidates such as Al Gore (13%), John Edwards (10%) and John Kerry (4%) were left in the dust.

“I hope Obama runs,” said McAuliffe airily. “I say, bring them all in. The more the merrier. He’s got a great attractive story to tell.”

Other friends of Bill Clinton regard the Illinois senator as a dangerous rival. “He’s bright, appealing and he doesn’t carry Bill and Hillary’s baggage,” said one. “People are critical of his lack of experience, but he represents a new face and we’ve had presidents like Jack Kennedy who were inexperienced.”

Obama has a lot of ground to make up with the voters of Dumfries. “Who? What did you say his name was?” asked Miller. But the ex-marine had heard of the newcomer: “He’s very charismatic. I know more about Hillary than about him, but I know I’m not going to vote for her. She is not a conservative — she changes with the wind.”

In Dumfries the 2008 election is up for grabs. “I liked Bush’s father,” said Miller. But the elder Bush finished his presidency with dire approval ratings and was succeeded by a Clinton. Could it happen again? “I admire Hillary, she’s gone through a lot with Bill and she’s a survivor, but I don’t know,” Miller hesitated. “Part of me wants to say yes, because she’s a woman, although I wouldn’t want to vote for her just because of that. I can see Hillary having to fight everybody.”

Even so, she is more likely to vote for Clinton than McCain. As the Tories have found in Britain, when the political landscape shifts dramatically, it can take years to recover. It is going to take a while for the Republicans to win back her trust.

“You know?” Miller said brightly. “I think I’ll stick with the Democrats next time.”


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bluedogs; democrats; hillary
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The Blue Dogs need to be exposed as socialist fakes, immediately. I already know Webb is - his "victory rally", in which he said he joined the Democrats not just because of Iraq, but also because of agreeing with their "principles" was instructive.

Regards, Ivan

1 posted on 11/12/2006 2:15:29 AM PST by MadIvan
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To: Mrs Ivan; odds; DCPatriot; Texican; Watery Tart; Deetes; Barset; fanfan; LadyofShalott; Tolik; ...

Ping!


2 posted on 11/12/2006 2:15:47 AM PST by MadIvan (I aim to misbehave.)
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To: MadIvan
The problem is the Democrats are controlled by rabid Leftists. Blue Dog Democrats are there for one reason - to give the Democrats' Left camouflage and a patina of moderate respectability. Let no one be fooled - the Democratic moderates do NOT set the direction for the Democrats today.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus

3 posted on 11/12/2006 2:19:39 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: MadIvan

Going from Webb getting elected to Hillary Clinton getting elected is quite the stretch.

This does not compute at all. Wishful thinking.


4 posted on 11/12/2006 2:23:03 AM PST by chudogg (www.chudogg.blogspot.com)
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To: chudogg
The Drive Bys/MSM will make Hillary look moderate and portray the GOP as war-mongering blackguards. Set, lock and match.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus

5 posted on 11/12/2006 2:27:09 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: MadIvan
I can see that over the course of the next 2 years, I am probably going to post this similar post reply a couple dozen times.

First, Americans will see that the Dims are worse than Pubbies in being the 'culture of corruption' party. Second, the changes during the 'first 100 hours' the new Dim congress is promising will change nothing! Third, Americans will see that the Dims don't have and never did have a plan to fix anything. Fourth, Hitery will not get the Dim nod to run for President. Fifth, Blue Dog Dims will swing back again to vote for the Pubbies.

6 posted on 11/12/2006 3:08:43 AM PST by moonman (`)
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To: MadIvan
The White House in 2008 is Hillry's if she stays on track.
7 posted on 11/12/2006 3:18:11 AM PST by Just mythoughts
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To: MadIvan
How embarassing it is to have the rest of the world learn we call some of the Dims the Blue Dogs (and Blue Pups).

You all must think we're complete idiots.
8 posted on 11/12/2006 3:19:51 AM PST by George W. Bush
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To: MadIvan
Your Madness:

This is about the success of the Dims and the media in clouding the mind of the electorate. I offer two examples:

(1)
“For me, it was the war,” said Sandy Miller, a 56-year-old nurse, explaining her switch in support. “I just don’t think we should be over there in Iraq. They should be taking care of their own business.

Sandy has forgotten that Iraq is part of the so-called "War on Terror". It's not "their own business", it's the business of people in the UK and the US who would like to think that they can go on a cruise ship or an airpplane without some Islamo-wacko committing mayhem thereon.

(2)
Besides, she agrees with the Democrats rather than her church on the need for federal funding of stem cell research. “I’ve got a cousin with Parkinson’s disease,” she said.

Okay, class, repeat after me:

EMBRYONIC stem cell research.
The Dims and the newsies don't want people to know that there is useful work going on with stem cells which are not Embryonic stem cells. They don't want people to make the distinction. For people interested in the truth and in a free people making responsible decisions, the distinction is critical. For people interested in power at any cost and perfectly willing to mislead people if that will help them control people, the distinction is perilous. So they act as though there is no distinction. Simply put, they lie, glibly, eagerly, habitually. They lie so that they can control and dominate.

Conservatives have got to define the message clearly in their own heads, and then stick to it. They've got to break the eleventh commandment (Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican) and be clear about what distinguishes them from RINOs like McCain. And we've got to find some way to exploit the decline of the Dinosaur media and break their control over how the questions are posed to the electorate.

It ain't gonna be pretty, and it may be impossible. There seems to be a suicidal tendency in prosperous societies with representative governments. We try to kill our young and our aged and infirm, and now we're trying to cripple our ability to defend ourselves.


Crusader Bumper Sticker
9 posted on 11/12/2006 3:25:02 AM PST by Mad Dawg (Now we are all Massoud)
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To: goldstategop

IMHO, a similar argument could be made, unfortunately, that for the past 12 years, conservatives merely served as political cover (and money tree) for the RINOs in control of the Republican Party.


10 posted on 11/12/2006 3:29:43 AM PST by golas1964 ("He tasks me... He tasks me, and I shall have him!")
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To: golas1964
The Americans are going to see Pelosi's Crash Dummies put a soothing face on the Democrats' true agenda. If you believe they'll vote to stop the liberal agenda from advancing, better invest in cattle futures now.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus

11 posted on 11/12/2006 3:34:50 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

" Let no one be fooled - the Democratic moderates do NOT set the direction for the Democrats today."

Democrat moderates, as well as Republican moderates are Liberals.

The leadership are Marxists.


12 posted on 11/12/2006 3:36:43 AM PST by EQAndyBuzz (The voting machines aren't broken. The Dems operating the voting machines are broken.)
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To: EQAndyBuzz
Yeah the old Democrats were bad enough. The new ones are make them look conservative.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus

13 posted on 11/12/2006 3:39:36 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: MadIvan
"The Blue Dogs need to be exposed as socialist fakes, immediately."

Ivan, what was wrong with the term "sheeple?" Same follow-the-follower crowd.

14 posted on 11/12/2006 3:52:51 AM PST by 100-Fold_Return (In Prisons Tattletales Are the Same as Child-Molesters...hmm)
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To: MadIvan
Terry McAuliffe, former chairman of the Democratic national committee, is already preparing for Hillary Clinton’s likely presidential run. He believes the midterm results represent a potentially historic shift for his party.

“It was a ‘throw the Republicans out’ election. Some people voted for us reluctantly but we have a terrific opportunity to get back the Reagan Democrats we lost in the 1980s,” he said.

Just one problem, Terry .. the candidates that you all ran as conservatives and as pro life will have to come through on their word and vote against your party to live up to their promises

Or will the nags from NOW and NARL and all the commie ANSWER folks continue to keep their mouths shut like they did in the past election???

The Reagan Democrats you lost in the 1980s was because of your commie loving, socialist spending, anti-military, President Jimmy Carter

Oh and one more thing .. those investigations into faulty intelligence ???

The Senate already did that and the report is out

Though I'm sure that won't stop y'all from grandstanding in the public eye

15 posted on 11/12/2006 3:53:11 AM PST by Mo1 (Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is 2 heart beats away from the Presidency)
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To: goldstategop
Let no one be fooled - the Democratic moderates do NOT set the direction for the Democrats today.

Key word from this article would be "Looks"

Senior Democrats with a shrewd eye on 2008 are seeking to limit the investigations to areas where their own side stands to look patriotic as opposed to weak on national security

16 posted on 11/12/2006 4:08:40 AM PST by Mo1 (Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is 2 heart beats away from the Presidency)
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To: MadIvan

This "Blue Dog" talk reeks of the same "New Kind of Democrat" lie Bill peddled during '92.


17 posted on 11/12/2006 4:09:08 AM PST by spall
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To: MadIvan

piaps...the bee-itch will target (use) everyone and anyone to help her gain power!!!!

she will preach tolerance and bi-partisanship and a centerist view right up to the night of the elctions....the next morning if she wins (God help us)...the public better know the tenants of the communist manifesto!!!!


18 posted on 11/12/2006 4:42:27 AM PST by hnj_00
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To: goldstategop
Democrats are there for one reason - to give the Democrats' Left camouflage and a patina of moderate respectability.

More than that. It gave them the chairmanships of the committees and I don't think most people understand the importance that those committees will now be chaired by rabid leftists.

19 posted on 11/12/2006 5:41:25 AM PST by libertylover (If it's good and decent, you can be sure the Democrat Party leaders are against it.)
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To: MadIvan

I think, after the media's victory in the mid-term elections, they will now have the confidence to hype Hillary the greatest of heights for '08. Of course, she had the media support long ago, but I think the "2006 propoganda experiment" has emboldend all corners of the MSM to get behind her and "make it happen."


20 posted on 11/12/2006 6:06:15 AM PST by right-wingin_It
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