Delaware: Biden (D) K
Illinois: Durbin (D) K
Iowa: Harkin (D) K
Louisiana: Landrieu (D) P
Massachusetts: Kerry (D) K
Michigan: Levin (D) K
Montana: Baucus (D) U
New Jersey: Lautenberg (D) K
Rhode Island: Reed (D) K
South Dakota: Johnson (D) P
West Virginia: Rockefeller (D) K
Code:U = Unlikely
P = Possible
K = Are you kidding me?
I like your coding of the races. I sure am glad we republicans learned a lesson in 2006.
Senator Levin in Michigan is probably going to retire after the current term. Michigan has become a solid Blue state in the last 10 years so even a pickup here with no incumbent is unlikely.
I already posted this on another thread, but it's relevant to this one too:
If the Dems hold a 51 seat majority, we only need to pickup one or two (depending on who wins the Presidential race) seats to win it back. The problem is, I fear 2008 could be a tougher year for us than 2006. Here's my rundown:
Non-starters (incumbents will win):
Alabama (Sessions-R)
Alaska (Stevens-R)
Georgia (Chambliss-R)
Idaho (Craig-R)
Illinois (Durbin-D)
Kansas (Roberts-R)
Kentucky (McConnell-R)
Massachusetts (Kerry-D) - the Dems won't nominate him for Prez again
Montana (Baucus-D)
Nebraska (Hagel-R)
North Carolina (Dole-R)
Rhode Island (Reed-D)
South Carolina (Graham-R)
Tennessee (Alexander-R)
Texas (Cornyn-R)
West Virginia (Rockefeller-D)
Wyoming (Enzi-R)
Possible losses:
Colorado (Allard) - Might retire, or might even be vulnurable as an incumbent. The Dems have picked up a lot of strength in Colorado, and if the GOP nominates Tancredo to replace Allard he'll get crushed for sure.
Maine (Collins) - I believe she's said she intends to retire after this term. If she changes her mind, we'll keep the seat, but if not, this will for sure go Dem.
Minnesota (Coleman) - Minnesota is a blue state, meaning Coleman can't take anything for granted. If the DFL is idiotic enough to nomiante Al Franken, he'll be fine, but a real challenger will cause a close race.
Mississippi (Cochran) - He might retire, but even if he does, we'll probably keep this seat. My worry is that conservative Democrat Rep. Gene Taylor could very well win an open seat Senate race in Mississippi if he chooses to run.
New Hampshire (Sununu) - The Live Free or Die State is in a sad state of affairs. After both House seats went Dem yesterday, and the Dem Governor reelected, Sununu has great reason to worry.
New Mexico (Domenici) - If he doesn't retire, we keep this seat. If he does, this is a swing state, and it would be very competitive. If Richardson decides to run, the GOP might be screwed here.
Oklahoma (Inhofe) - Very similar to Mississippi. We will hold it for sure with the incumbent, and are still very likely to hold it even if he retires, but a conservative Democrat like Rep. Dan Boren, former Rep. Brad Carson, or Gov. Brad Henry could possibly win it.
Oregon (Smith) - Similar to Minnesota. A Republican in a blue state is always running against the odds.
Virginia (Warner) - John Warner may very well retire in 2008. Former Gov. Mark Warner would be the favorite to win this seat, and I think he's eyeing it after he announced he won't run for President in 2008.
Possible pick-ups:
Arkansas (Pryor) - Arkansas is a swing state, but it'll take a very good GOP candidate to beat Pryor. Maybe Huckabee?
Delaware (Biden) - Joe Biden is a shoo-in if he runs again, but if retires or somehow gets the Democratic nomination (more likely than Kerry), the open seat could be competitive if and only if Rep. Mike Castle decides to run.
Iowa (Harkin) - Like Arkansas, it's a swing state, but only a strong candidate will beat an incumbent. I don't know who that could be.
Louisiana (Landrieu) - Probably the GOP's best shot at a pick-up in 2008. She's the 2nd most conservative Senate Dem after Ben Nelson of Nebraska, but that might not be enough to win re-election, especially after Katrina.
Michigan (Levin) - Only competitive if he retires, and I'm not sure what big gun there is to run for the open seat. Ted Nugent?
New Jersey (Lautenberg) - He's really old, and without the spunk of Robert Byrd - he comes off as a walking corpse. If he doesn't voluntarily retire, the NJ Dems will make him. The Dems have a strong candidate in Rep. Rob Andrews, and maybe Kean will make another go at it for the GOP. Andrews would probably beat Kean, but Kean could beat a weaker Dem candidate.
South Dakota (Johnson) - He's of course a Dem in a very red state, but you can't beat someone with no one. The only person who has any chance of beating Johnson is Gov. Mike Rounds, but Johnson is more popular in the state, and would probably still win anyway.
I don't like to be a doom-and-gloomer, but things look less than inspiring for 2008. My greatest hope is that the Dems will be so terrible the next two years, we'll have another Republican sweep like 1994.