It will be first, a Peace treaty,(Signed By Liars on Both sides)
then a withdrawl,( then a Victory celebration that the Terrorists drove out the Great Satan.
then a Flood if Iranian millitants into Iraq.
and in 2-3 Years..the Iraq Govt will be overthrown,
and the Millitant Sharia Caliphate will take over,
and then the Democrats will Blame Bush and the Republicans.
They will say that because of Bush they couldn't get their "message" of Love and peace out to the mullahs.
I don't think you will be too far off on your prediction I am afraid.
You forgot one important detail: Kurdistan will be independant.