The "macacca" incident was an unfortunate mistake, but I don't think that had a significant influence on this election. This election was about Iraq. It's not that the casualties are that high, but the problem was the lack of progress on troops withdrawals and getting out of Iraq.
No way.
Allen was ahead big before macaca, in spite of Iraq. Then he insulted jews. Then he pandered to feminists. Then he showed he couldn't answer a straight question on Russert for no apparent reason.
The election was about many things, Iraq being a big piece of them, but this particular election was lost by one person: George Allen.
You're ignoring the dramatic differences between Allen's race and other states - Allen was ahead by 15-20 points all summer despite Iraq, etc. which dragged down polls in other states from the beginning. It was only when the scumbags launched the "Macaca" hit all over the MSM that Allen's decisive lead evaporated..... and look at how Lieberman won easily in CT (much bluer state) despite the Demagogue angst about Iraq. A popular and well-respected local/state pol such as Allen would have won easily had he not been sandbagged by a vicious and dishonest MSM that pumped the "Macaca" incident and Allen's mother's ancestry far, far, far beyond reason. It showed clearly what the Demagogues and DBM are capable of when they are working closely together.