HAS OUR TIME COME? (Blame CATO/Libertarians for this election result)

CATO Institute by way of Heretical Ideas.com ^ | 10/24/2006 | Tom Traina

[Matchett-PI]

Has Our Time Come? http://www.hereticalideas.com/

A **new study from the Cato Institute [see link below] suggests that libertarians might be the new swing vote.

The libertarian vote is in play. At some 13 percent of the electorate, it is sizable enough to swing elections. Pollsters, political strategists, candidates, and the media should take note of it.

After examining the relevant polling data, Cato concludes that libertarians and libertarian sympathizers constitute somewhere between 10 and 20% of the American population. Some explanations are offered as to why libertarians constitute such a bigger constituency than one might expect. First is that libertarians tend not to be as well-organized as other interest groups. Most groups that organize and try to exert political influence want some sort of government action: unions want favorable labor laws passed, the Christian Coalition wants abortion outlawed and anti-homosexual laws passed, environmentalists want pollution restricted and ecosystems protected, businesses want favorable tax and commercial laws. Libertarians generally don’t want government to take action, and are therefore less likely to organize into a pressure group because of that. It also argues that the difficulty people have in breaking out of the left-right liberal-conservative paradigm of politics keeps “populists” (authoritarians) and libertarians underrepresented. While most political scholarship accepts the inadequacy of a simple one-dimensional view of politics, it hasn’t sunk down into popular culture as strongly. Often talk shows and debate programs on television and radio will feature someone “from the left” and someone “from the right”, squeezing libertarians out of the picture.

An unexplored reason that might contribute is the higher prevalence of libertarianism among younger people than older people. The Cato paper notes this statistic but doesn’t explore its relationship to voter turnout. It explains the phenomenon this way. Younger people were more influenced by 2 of the most significant individualist movements of the 20th century: the ’60s counter culture and the ’80s Reagan Revolution. As a result, younger generations have seen both the socially liberal and the economically conservative side of individualism and turn to libertarianism as a way to emulate both ideals. The downside is that since younger people in general are less likely to vote, libertarians wind up underrepresented at the polls.

But don’t libertarian have to swing their votes to become a swing vote? Well, more and more frequently libertarian-minded people are losing the loyalty to the party they usually vote for (mostly the GOP), which puts their vote as a bloc in play.

Many commentators noted the high turnout in the 2004 election. Nationally, voter turnout increased 6.1 percent. That might help explain some of the swing in 2004. According to ANES data, libertarians reported turning out to vote at higher percentages than total respondents in 2000 and even higher in 2004.

This libertarian swing trend is particularly pronounced by age. Libertarians aged 18–29­ many of whom were new voters in 2004­ voted 71–42 for Kerry. Libertarians aged 30–49 voted almost completely the reverse, 72–21 for Bush.

Going back to the generational argument, I imagine that older individuals who can remember a time when the religious Right wasn’t nearly as omnipresent of a force in the Republican Party and therefore don’t automatically associate it with tirades about the moral dangers of homosexuality and feticide. So I can understand younger libertarians leaning more democratic than older ones who might remember the time of more Goldwater-like or even maybe Reagan-like Republicans.

What does all this mean in practical terms? What will we see coming out of the major political parties Conservatives resist cultural change and personal liberation; liberals resist economic dynamism and globalization. Libertarians embrace both. The political party that comes to terms with that can win the next generation.

It would really be great to see both political parties converge to a libertarian center. But as the article points out, the nature of libertarians makes them much harder to corral than other groups, which makes attracting us to their political parties a far more expensive and riskier proposition than going after churchgoers and soccer moms. Perhaps in time it will happen. But I doubt it will happen very soon.

** http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1718392/posts

[steve-b]

And for what? Over a balanced budget?

Whether or not we enslave the next generation to our debt is the greatest moral issue of our time.

[steve-b]

I'm talking about Libertarians and liberals I've met and read generally.

So, you're listening to and reading their response to your insults, and you're mystified as to why they sound a mite peevish.

Hokay....

[dbehsman]

Whether or not we enslave the next generation to our debt is the greatest moral issue of our time.

That has to be one of the most tragic statements that I have ever read on Free Republic. The war on terror is the greatest moral issue of our time. Do you guys want us to loose the war? Why don't you just come right out and say it? This election victory by the democRATS has been hailed by Al-Quida. Do you feel happy about that?

Since money is the most important thing to the libertarians, allow me to illustrate what we could be facing. The democRATS have been vowing to weaken the Patriot Act. What if they do, and as a result some knuckleheads sneak a nuke into Los Angles? The terrorist threat is real. This could happen. Now, I understand that you don't care about the humanity of many Americans getting killed in such an event, so I would then ask you to think about what the financial cost of such an event would be. Just in terms of dollars, any balanced budget would be shot in an instant. The cost would be multiple billions. The DOW would probably plummet overnight. In other words, your precious budget wouldn't mean a whole lot after such an event.

If the libertarians were really upset with the Republicans spending, they should have taken out the heavy spenders in the primaries not in the elections. You guys supported the party of John Kerry. If you guys were upset with the Republicans, you should have taken them out in the primaries.

In other words, you're timing was rotten and the decision was foolish. Don't try to blame other people for what is your responsibility.

One thing that I've always found fascinating (fascinating as in watching a train wreak fascinating) about the libertarian complaint that they are not being represented. They don't get involved in the primaries, they do much to back stab Republicans who stray a little off course, and in the end complain about not being represented.

The libertarians wanted Terry Schiavo dead. They got that and they still are not happy. The libertarians are pro abortion. The laws on the books are still pro abortion and the libertarians are still not happy. The libertarians complain about a tax cut, because it was done in the middle of a war. Why bother with them? I don't think the libertarians even know what they want.

[rivercat]

Dude...What the F%&# is your problem? You need to:
a) learn to frackin spell.
b) stop questioning my conservative credentials.
c) stop acting like a damn S.F liberal and quit telling these other folks what they should believe and how they should vote.
d) Read this: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-rlc/721810/posts
e) get a damn life.

[Blackirish]

That has to be one of the most tragic statements that I have ever read on Free Republic. The war on terror is the greatest moral issue of oou time.

---

I as a small l liberation/conservative agree with that but I cannot tell you how many times I have heard from the social right that gay marriage is the number issue. I think to myself what the F do they care if a couple of queers have some sort of civil union when Al Quida is planning to take out our cities?....maybe cuz they live in rural areas they don't care. I however work on LaSalle Street in downtown Chicago ...2 blocks frm the Board of Trade and 5 blocks from the Sears tower. Our boys are fighting for their lives overseas....Al Quadi has Chicago in it's cross hairs....I could give a damn about a few queer up on Halstead street. If the social right would be able to walk and chew gum at the same tme we could win the WOT and sweat the small stuff at the same time.

[dbehsman]

Dude...What the F%&# is your problem? You need to: a) learn to frackin spell.

Are you talking about my misspelling of Al Qaeda? I ran spell check on my posting, and it didn't come up with an alternate spelling. Does my misspelling have anything to do with the issue at hand?

b) stop questioning my conservative credentials.

I question the credentials of anybody who supports the party of Al Qaeda. Have you heard now that Al Qaeda has been hailing this election as a great victory?

c) stop acting like a damn S.F liberal and quit telling these other folks what they should believe and how they should vote.

Have you gone completely out of your damned mind? This is a forum. The libertarians have been complaining about how they're not being represented by the Republicans. Some libertarians have been boasting about how they're glad that the democRATS won. I have been asking the libertarians a lot of questions, and I haven't been getting too many answers. Vote however you want, just quit pretending that you were forced to vote one way or another.

d) Read this: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-rlc/721810/posts

I'll read it later when I get the time.

e) get a damn life.

What's the matter with you? Is this your idea of a good argument?

[dbehsman]

I don't think the libertarians are going to have to worry about whether or not there are going to be more Conservative candidates in 2008. I believe that the message was sent loud and clear. President Bush (who is not running for reelection) probably didn't get the message, but I think many of the other Republicans did. I do not want to see a President McCain any more than you do. The issue that I want to stress is that the libertarians should get involved in the primaries to make this happen! How can the libertarians complain when they didn't vote in the primaries?

Also, I am upset with the timing of this "protest". There is a time to protest, and there is a time to not protest. The survival of this nation is a stake and the stability in the middle east is at stake.

As far as homosexual marriage goes, I don't think it is the number one issue, but I do think a government of the people does have a right to step in and decide on a public contract.

There does exist such a thing as public decency. For example, lets just say the Hillary Hamrod got a divorce from Slick Willie and wanted to instead get married to a Shetland pony. Now, I know you said that you're a small l libertarian, and I don't expect you to be the spokesman for the libertarian party. However, do you as a libertarian think that Hillary and the pony should be a government recognized item?

[photodawg]

CATO and the Libertarians are here to stay. Get used to it or pack it in. No amount of handwringing will change those facts.



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The new libs...as in Libertarians. Here to stay? Since each is an army of one with a political platform of hedonistic self centrism, they will be a total non factor politically as the only thing they support politically is their personal crusade.

[rivercat]

I ran spell check on my posting, and it didn't come up with an alternate spelling.

Spell checkers suck. You can't "loose the war", Los Angeles is not spelled "Los Angles".

I question the credentials of anybody who supports the party of Al Qaeda.

Please tell me when I supported the party of Al Qaeda?

The libertarians have been complaining about how they're not being represented by the Republicans. Some libertarians have been boasting about how they're glad that the democRATS won... Vote however you want, just quit pretending that you were forced to vote one way or another.

When did I express any sort of glee that the Dims won? When did I say I voted for anyone other than a Pubbie? In 30 years of voting, I've never missed an election, and I've never voted for anyone that wasn't a Republican (unless there wasn't one running). BUT, more importantly, please tell me how the Republicans have reduced the size of government or eliminated the pork-barrel spending that is supposed to be the hallmark of the Democratic party? While you're at it, please tell me how the current Republican administration has shown some backbone and prosecuted the war in Iraq aggessively enough instead of letting it drag on because they've been running scared from the anti-war crowd?

[rivercat]

Yeah, that's what I thought. All I hear is the sound of crickets chirping...

[dbehsman]

Yeah, that's what I thought. All I hear is the sound of crickets chirping...

Oh, for crying out loud! Listen you pathetic wacko, you were the one who told me earlier to "e) get a damn life." What the hell do you want? This is just like a typical losertarian, they never know what they want. I thought you had enough sense to realize that I was ignoring you. You have not answered questions that I have asked you in my previous postings, why should I bother to answer yours? I have gotten so sick and tired of answering questions posed to me by losertarians, but never seeing them reciprocate.

[rivercat]

pathetic wacko

Typical. Just like a Dimocrat...you started the crap, you rant incoherently, then you resort to name calling when challenged.

You have not answered questions that I have asked you in my previous postings, why should I bother to answer yours?

Hmmm... it sure looks like I answered your questions, I guess you won't answer mine because the cricket chirping sound I hear is coming from between your ears!
If you're going to put such idiotic stuff in your profile, and spread your tripe around FR, be prepared to be challenged, RINO.

[rivercat]

On second thought, let's have some fun and examine your "questions"...
Gee, and they all appear to be rhetorical! But I'll answer them anyway.

Do you guys want us to loose[sic] the war? No.

Why don't you just come right out and say it? Because it's not true.

This election victory by the democRATS has been hailed by Al-Quida[sic]. Do you feel happy about that?Of course not!

What if they do, and as a result some knuckleheads sneak a nuke into Los Angles[sic]? knuckleheads? don't you mean ragheads?

Why bother with them?[re:liberatarians] because they are the only voice of fiscal sanity left, and they are entitled to their opinion.

Please look to post #269 for the questions that you still need to answer.

[LM_Guy]

The best thing that happened to the GOP was when the democrats took completely over in 1992, I am glad to see the GOP get a wakeup kick in the butt.!!!

If the GOP doesn't change its ways they will not see control for a very long time.... The illegal alien issue is a GOP & Democrat caused issue because they both want to see the country flooded with cheap labor (GOP) & cheap votes (Dems).

So the GOP is reaping the harvest they planted with all of the illegal alien anchor babies starting now to be eligible to vote and allowing anyone to register to vote. Heck in my county / state you can register your dog to vote and it is totally GOP controlled.