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HAS OUR TIME COME? (Blame CATO/Libertarians for this election result)
CATO Institute by way of Heretical Ideas.com ^ | 10/24/2006 | Tom Traina

Posted on 11/08/2006 8:08:12 AM PST by Matchett-PI

Has Our Time Come? http://www.hereticalideas.com/

A **new study from the Cato Institute [see link below] suggests that libertarians might be the new swing vote.

The libertarian vote is in play. At some 13 percent of the electorate, it is sizable enough to swing elections. Pollsters, political strategists, candidates, and the media should take note of it.

After examining the relevant polling data, Cato concludes that libertarians and libertarian sympathizers constitute somewhere between 10 and 20% of the American population. Some explanations are offered as to why libertarians constitute such a bigger constituency than one might expect. First is that libertarians tend not to be as well-organized as other interest groups. Most groups that organize and try to exert political influence want some sort of government action: unions want favorable labor laws passed, the Christian Coalition wants abortion outlawed and anti-homosexual laws passed, environmentalists want pollution restricted and ecosystems protected, businesses want favorable tax and commercial laws. Libertarians generally don’t want government to take action, and are therefore less likely to organize into a pressure group because of that. It also argues that the difficulty people have in breaking out of the left-right liberal-conservative paradigm of politics keeps “populists” (authoritarians) and libertarians underrepresented. While most political scholarship accepts the inadequacy of a simple one-dimensional view of politics, it hasn’t sunk down into popular culture as strongly. Often talk shows and debate programs on television and radio will feature someone “from the left” and someone “from the right”, squeezing libertarians out of the picture.

An unexplored reason that might contribute is the higher prevalence of libertarianism among younger people than older people. The Cato paper notes this statistic but doesn’t explore its relationship to voter turnout. It explains the phenomenon this way. Younger people were more influenced by 2 of the most significant individualist movements of the 20th century: the ’60s counter culture and the ’80s Reagan Revolution. As a result, younger generations have seen both the socially liberal and the economically conservative side of individualism and turn to libertarianism as a way to emulate both ideals. The downside is that since younger people in general are less likely to vote, libertarians wind up underrepresented at the polls.

But don’t libertarian have to swing their votes to become a swing vote? Well, more and more frequently libertarian-minded people are losing the loyalty to the party they usually vote for (mostly the GOP), which puts their vote as a bloc in play.

Many commentators noted the high turnout in the 2004 election. Nationally, voter turnout increased 6.1 percent. That might help explain some of the swing in 2004. According to ANES data, libertarians reported turning out to vote at higher percentages than total respondents in 2000 and even higher in 2004.

This libertarian swing trend is particularly pronounced by age. Libertarians aged 18–29­ many of whom were new voters in 2004­ voted 71–42 for Kerry. Libertarians aged 30–49 voted almost completely the reverse, 72–21 for Bush.

Going back to the generational argument, I imagine that older individuals who can remember a time when the religious Right wasn’t nearly as omnipresent of a force in the Republican Party and therefore don’t automatically associate it with tirades about the moral dangers of homosexuality and feticide. So I can understand younger libertarians leaning more democratic than older ones who might remember the time of more Goldwater-like or even maybe Reagan-like Republicans.

What does all this mean in practical terms? What will we see coming out of the major political parties Conservatives resist cultural change and personal liberation; liberals resist economic dynamism and globalization. Libertarians embrace both. The political party that comes to terms with that can win the next generation.

It would really be great to see both political parties converge to a libertarian center. But as the article points out, the nature of libertarians makes them much harder to corral than other groups, which makes attracting us to their political parties a far more expensive and riskier proposition than going after churchgoers and soccer moms. Perhaps in time it will happen. But I doubt it will happen very soon.

** http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1718392/posts


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cato; catoinstitute; election2006; liberaltarians; libertarians; tomtraina; waaaahmbulance
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To: dcam
The primary races are for choosing the conservative candidates. Not enough votes to do it? Too bad - gotta go with the one the voters chose, and hope you can get a conservative nominated in the next primary. There are only two viable political parties.
141 posted on 11/08/2006 10:07:22 AM PST by Matchett-PI (To have no voice in the Party that always sides with America's enemies is a badge of honor.)
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To: Dead Corpse

It's a vote, it's a participation in the distribution of sovereign power.

If you want to exercise moral rectitude, go to church.


142 posted on 11/08/2006 10:07:22 AM PST by AmishDude (Democrats raise taxes.)
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To: Matchett-PI

I agree that the L candidate lost us Montana, but CATO isn't the same thing as the libertarian party.


143 posted on 11/08/2006 10:08:46 AM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: My2Cents
Libertarians have a genetic inability to see the big picture.

How ironic that you can't see that the GOP's failure to adhere to its small-government principles is what led to the Libertarian Party's very existence, and hence to the GOP's defeat last night.

Or is that not part of the "Big Picture"?

144 posted on 11/08/2006 10:08:48 AM PST by Teacher317
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To: kevao

Too small and too unreliable. As I said, the Libertarians will split with a coalition on the flavor of the bagels at the mid-morning break. (In fact, knowing some Libertarians, having bagels at all would be too neo-con for them.)


145 posted on 11/08/2006 10:10:13 AM PST by AmishDude (Democrats raise taxes.)
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To: AmishDude
It's a vote, it's a participation in the distribution of sovereign power.

It's an authorization for the use of force. You just authorized yourself to assault me.

Don't go there. Seriously. There are some Rights no majority was ever to deprive us of.

146 posted on 11/08/2006 10:10:52 AM PST by Dead Corpse (Anyone who needs to be persuaded to be free, doesn't deserve to be.)
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To: Matchett-PI

bookmarking


147 posted on 11/08/2006 10:11:58 AM PST by FreedomProtector
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To: Positive
Spending on domestic concerns, adding Departments, amount of pork added to the budget without so much as a twitch of the Veto pen, ect...

If you want charts, I can get them for you.

148 posted on 11/08/2006 10:12:09 AM PST by Dead Corpse (Anyone who needs to be persuaded to be free, doesn't deserve to be.)
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To: tomzz

I'm like you. As far as our liberties are concerned, the GOP is very bad and the Democrats are much much worse. I'm not willing to let the much worse party get elected.


149 posted on 11/08/2006 10:14:14 AM PST by murdoog
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To: dcam

Sorry, neither the R nor the D party expects very much at all. It's a coalition.

Tell you what, want to run for office as an R? Go to the local board of elections and run for your local statehouse office as a Republican. It's not hard, and nobody will stop you.

Party identification is not a barrier, it's a way that the candidates let the people know on which side of the fence they (generally) stand. It says that you'd rather stand with Pelosi than with Hastert.

I am always amazed at the wholesale ignorance that Libertarians have for how politics works.

It's the L party that's a rigid, top-down, toe-the-line organization.


150 posted on 11/08/2006 10:14:30 AM PST by AmishDude (Democrats raise taxes.)
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To: AmishDude
Too small and too unreliable.

IOW, they're too small to make a difference AND are responsible for handing yesterday's election to the Democrats?

151 posted on 11/08/2006 10:14:30 AM PST by kevao
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To: Matchett-PI
Conservatives resist cultural change and personal liberation

That's just plain wrong. Conservative means conservative powers for government, liberal powers for citizens. Liberal means liberal powers for government conservative power for citizens.

Conservatives resist government liberation.

152 posted on 11/08/2006 10:15:49 AM PST by pjd
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To: Dead Corpse
It's an authorization for the use of force. You just authorized yourself to assault me.

Do you want to explain this? I'm sorry. I don't speak crazy.

153 posted on 11/08/2006 10:16:07 AM PST by AmishDude (Democrats raise taxes.)
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To: AmishDude
I don't speak crazy.

No. You don't have a clue in general so anyone speaking sense seems "crazy" to you.

154 posted on 11/08/2006 10:18:08 AM PST by Dead Corpse (Anyone who needs to be persuaded to be free, doesn't deserve to be.)
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To: kevao

They're too small and unreliable to help you win. It's like holding slime, they'll slip away no matter what you do. Better to go after the mushy middle than the couple of Libertarians.

But I never claimed that the L's lost the Montana race. Maybe they did, but what it would have taken to bring them on board would have either reduced Burns' total to 10% or not been sufficient for their unappeasability.


155 posted on 11/08/2006 10:18:39 AM PST by AmishDude (Democrats raise taxes.)
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To: Dead Corpse
You don't have a clue in general so anyone speaking sense seems "crazy" to you.

I see you can't translate crazy either. Fair enough.

156 posted on 11/08/2006 10:19:30 AM PST by AmishDude (Democrats raise taxes.)
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To: tpaine
I don't care who posted it. A "libertarian republican" is like a "social democrat"....only the first word really applies when describing them. "Libertarian Republicans" are a cancer on the party. And you can either let cancer consume you, or you can cut it out.
157 posted on 11/08/2006 10:20:41 AM PST by DesScorp
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To: AmishDude

When you understand what the Constitution is and does, come back and try and have a cogent discussion. Until then, it'd be like me trying to explain particle physics to a 3 year old.


158 posted on 11/08/2006 10:22:46 AM PST by Dead Corpse (Anyone who needs to be persuaded to be free, doesn't deserve to be.)
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To: dbehsman
Yep the big government social right has done a great job of running things,...now they should take your advise and

"I recommend that we Republicans cease and desist courting the loosertarian'

Did you see the results of last nites election or just wake up from a 20 hour nap?
159 posted on 11/08/2006 10:23:22 AM PST by Blackirish
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To: concerned about politics

not around here, they didn't.


160 posted on 11/08/2006 10:25:28 AM PST by jjm2111 (http://www.purveryors-of-truth.blogspot.com)
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