I can't wait for the results. I'll freeze myself to make the time go by faster.
6:00PM: Indiana and Kentucky
Indiana and Kentucky are the Republicans’ canary in the coalmine. In 1994, the GOP knew even before cocktail hour that they were in for a good night when a number of seats switched hands in both states (it happened so early in the evening that many election night observers had not even tuned in yet). Democrats are hopeful the same thing happens this year in their favor. The Republican Governor of Indiana is as smart as Einstein and as popular as typhoid, so there is a local anti-Republican current that is dragging down the rest of the ticket. Kentucky Republicans are suffering the same fate. There are five possible switches in this time zone – one more than in 1994. If three or more go early, you know the Democrats are taking control of the House.
John Hostettler (R-INC) v. Brad Ellsworth (Indiana 08): Hostettler, a class of 1994 Republican, is in deep, deep, deep trouble in a district that gave Bush more than 60% of the vote in 2004. The question here is not whether he loses but by how much and he won’t be able to blame his campaign manager without upsetting the family Thanksgiving dinner. His sister runs the homespun campaign.
Mike Sodrel (R-INC) v. Baron Hill (D) (Indiana 09): Sodrel upset Democrat incumbent Baron Hill in 2004 by less than 1%, and Hill is back for a rematch. Polls had consistently showed Sodrel losing by as much as 11%, but tracking in the past week narrowed the gap. If he wins, the GOP really did close the gap in the last 96 hours. If he loses, the Dems are on the way to a majority. Clearly an important bellwether district.
Chocola (R-INC) v. Donnelly (D) (Indiana 02): Chris Chocola is what I call a Majority Maker. It’s a Democrat seat but Chocola is a very strong campaigner. He would probably keep the seat in any other year but 2006. Should he survive, it’s a clear indication that good Republican candidates can withstand a bad Republican year. If he loses early and badly, it’s going to be a lonely night for other House Republicans.
Northrup (R-INC) v. Yarmuth (D) (KY 03): Anne Northrup has held one of the GOP’s most marginal seats (both Gore and Kerry carried the district) for a decade. Considered one of the hardest working incumbents, she has survived strong Democrat efforts in every election cycle since 1996. You can tell it’s a bad year for Republicans when there are a dozen more vulnerable incumbents. If Northrup loses this time, expect Republicans to drop 25+ House seats.
Davis (R-INC) v. Lucas (D) (KY 04): In 2004, the then-70-year-old Democrat Lucas retired from Congress after serving in this district for three terms and was succeeded by Davis, a staunch conservative. This is a very Republican district, but Lucas has been tarred by his associations with Tom DeLay and Duke Cunningham. DCCC chairman, Rahm Emanuel talked Lucas into un-retiring and giving it another go.. This one’s a real tossup.
Lewis (R-INC) v. Weaver (D) (KY-02): This one has snuck up on people but the DCCC is touting the candidacy of Col. Mike Weaver, a conservative opposed to abortion, gun control and gay marriage. He is running against Ron Lewis, the man who first won in 1993 in a district that hadn’t elected a Republican since Reconstruction. Should Weaver pull the upset it will be a disastrous omen for the GOP.
Polls close in these two states at 6 p.m. local time, which means the eastern portions will end voting at 6 EST. The key races in both states will be a bevy of close House races featuring GOP incumbents.
In Indiana, three GOP House incumbents have been trailing their Democratic challengers in October polls, albeit with survey samples so small the margin of error is large. Watch Rep. Mike Sodrel in the Ninth District. If he wins, it will mean it's unlikely Republicans will face a huge Democratic wave and lose 30 seats or more. If Rep. Chris Chocola in the Second District should survive, the GOP may wind up losing 20 seats or fewer. If Rep. John Hostettler also comes home to victory in the Eighth District, there is a good chance the GOP will retain its House majority. Indiana's Senate race isn't competitive; Republican Dick Lugar will easily win a sixth term.
Kentucky has two barn burners. Republican Rep. Anne Northup has held Louisville's Third District for five terms, but it hasn't voted Republican for president in nearly 20 years. If a she loses this time, it will an all-smiles night for Democrats. Similarly, Democrats hope that former Rep. Ken Lucas will topple freshman Republican Geoff Davis (Fourth District) in the Kentucky suburbs of Cincinnati. But should Mr. Lucas win, look for him to give Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi heartburn. He has campaigned as a down-the-line conservative.
--Opinion Journal
I think we should just make this the election night live thread...why not.
KY 4th and 3rd results will be slow in coming. Been watching KY political returns for a long time and northern KY counties tend to report slowly.
And there it is.
Anyway, I can't stand CNN, but they've usually got the best graphical presentation of results. Let's start with this page: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/house/
5:00pm WIBC Update
Repubs still in court about Vote-buying injunction
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1734244/posts
Is this where the exit polling data will be posted?
All right Rob, let's rock...
Bookmark
I'll be bouncing between this, the National Live thread, and A couple of Yahoo boards...
One vote for Chocola and one for Senator Lugar here.
Lugar didn't even have a 'Rat opponent, strange since they think they're hot stuff this year.
bookmark
Is this THE THREAD?
I'm going to be hanging around here until 3:00 am or so. Want to know I'm in the right neighborhood.
Nervous but optimistic here...
I can't wait for the results. I'll freeze myself to make the time go by faster.BEWARE the EXIT POLLS!
http://www.gop.com/News/Read.aspx?ID=6718
It was never an 11 point race.
I don't actually have anything to say, I just want to be on the first page of a 10,000 post thread... ;-)