RCP Projections

Time blog ^ | 11/7/06

[finnman69]

HOUSE: 222 D, 213 R (D +19)
SENATE: 51R, 49D (D+4)
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2006/11/rcp_projections.html

[jveritas]

Keep the faith sister, we will keep the House and the Senate

[meg88]

But Tuesday is another day for those Kerry comments to sink in and turn the tide -18 to 13 or 14, could happen!

[Courdeleon02]

I think we hold the Senate 53-47 and hold the house by 1 Vote with a loss of 14 Seats.

[listenhillary]

Republicans are underrepresented in the polls.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Chin up! Mark those (R) ovals!

[MHGinTN]

With the gang of fourteen still spitting tacks in the Seante, losing the House means Republicans retain only the Executive branch because the democrats have been essentially running the Senate while Frist twiddled.

[MNJohnnie]

Rough out here.

I'll say! I saw a voting machine eat a guy here in MN! Howevermit was only this long hair maggot infest dope smoking FN type wearing an Impeach Bush button so apparently they are programed to only eat Rabid Moveon.org Leftists. Freepers should be safe. The Election Judge just game me a wink and a nod and said "nobody saw nothin' "

BTW, Karl says HI, GW says call him. Laura wants to know when you are coming by for dinner again.

[KsSunflower]

There's a race in the 2nd district here in Kansas. It is a seat held by (R) Jim Ryun. He has run a terrible campaign...watch that one...I think we may lose that and I haven't heard anything about it from anyone nationally.

It's so bad, that President Bush came through Kansas on the last weekend of the campaign.

We never see him in Kansas.

[KC_Conspirator]

MO, MT, VA, MD, and RI.

Since when did democrats hold leads in all of those races?

[jveritas]

I do not know why some of us have never learned yet not trust the biased media polls. Each elections the democrats and their media are getting more and more desperate and each year their polls are worst and more biased than ever.

[A message]

Curious what the motivation is to posting this sort of suppress the GOP turnout propaganda?

We know there are at least 32 Democrat members based on the sidebar poll.

[princess leah]

Is that Jim Ryan the runner?

[Chi-townChief]

RCP was on-target in '04 which probably doesn't mean much today.

[1035rep]

I been watching that poll. Those Democrats and the third party losers are the most vocal and going thread to thread trying to discourage us. I think it's pretty obvious who they are and it won't work.

[fortheDeclaration]

Human Events thinks we will only lose 12 seats.

I think we are going to lose far fewer and even add a couple.

I think the polls are underestimating GOP groundroots support-as always.

[fortheDeclaration]

Rich Lowry at National Review said -18 as of last night, RCP may be close.

National Review and the Weekly Standard-two elitist magazines who do not understand the grassroot GOP voter.

[finnman69]

Turnout will be everyting. A 2-3% advantage from a superior GOTV effort WILL swing razor tight elections.

If there is a suprise House retention, it will be due to turnout. I think we keep the Senate losing 3 seats. I hope to be wrong about the House. I rather scare people a little into voting and working GOTV and be wrong, thinking we are going to lose 25 seats but be happily surprised.

[fortheDeclaration]

No, Delay's seat is not lost and from what I hear neither is Foley's.

We will keep CD22.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Polls are designed for one specific purpose beyond pushing a liberal agenda. They make anyone who believes in the numbers a pessimist. I'm a truly optimistic person.

[MNJohnnie]

Realistically, we are down 11 seats

According to analysis that all is based on polling data that over weighted their sample 5% or more to Dems.

What happens to all these forecasts if the polling sample was off just 2% D over R?.

Then we have 5 possible pickups.

So supposed the game falls on the positive end because the Repb GOTV is so good.

If the polls are off as little as 2% that 14-24 range RCP is giving changes to a 8-18. Then the 5 and your are looking at a possible for the Dems to pick up as few as 3 Seats! It is absurd for Freepers to run around here making factual pronouncements based wholly on garbage data.

The real answer is "We don't know". The Dems will gain seats. Question is how many? Odd is it not that NONE of the analysis was moved at ALL by the late breaking polling data showing the evaporating support for the Dems in the Generic sample? How they manage to miss that?