NOBODY KNOWS

November 7, 2006 -- THE screenwriter William Goldman changed history in Hollywood with three simple words: "Nobody knows anything."

He was giving a simple and profound explanation for why some movies succeed and others fail. His answer: Nobody knows anything until the audience decides.

In the world of political punditry, it's time to invoke the Goldman rule. There are dozens, maybe hundreds, of high-profile blabbermouths out there (me included) trying to tell you which way the electorate is going to go. Chances are, if you're reading these words, you are the sort of person who pays attention to our blabber-mouthery.

If Democrats take the Senate, our own Chuck Schumer - who was in charge of the Washington leg of his party's effort there - will be a kingmaker and a very, very powerful guy.

If Democrats take the House by a substantial margin, Rep. Rahm Emanuel - who helped recruit candidates and raise money - will be the Big Cheese of Capitol Hill.

And if Republicans hang on - keeping it very close in the House and holding the Senate, or doing a little better than that - Karl Rove and GOP chairman Ken Mehlman will have earned their place in the pantheon of all-time political greats.

But guess what? Even as they woke up this morning, none of these possible Hall of Famers could tell you with any degree of certainty what's going to happen today.

They actually know a lot more than us pundits. But here's the bitter truth: Even in the august suites of party leaders in Washington on Election Day,

This may be the most profound colunm that is printed today. I surely have my own hopes and wishes, but I know nothing for sure.

I guess I will know something tomorrow. Or maybe not, if a dozen lawsuits are necessary to decide close states.

Suppose we have a massive "Florida like" dispute in any close states. We may not know anything until January.

MY BRAIN HURTS!!!

I know.

If the polls are accurate, we're in deep doo-doo.

If they aren't, we aren't.

Seriously, all the forecasts we've heard are based on polls. The talking heads rarely look at things like a race-by-race comparison of volunteers, or canvas large areas for indicators like percentage of signs, or even demographic trends applied to previous voting.

They just look at the same wildly changing polls we've seen, and guess.

2 posted on 11/07/2006 5:39:15 AM PST by Mr Rogers (I'm agnostic on evolution, but sit ups are from Hell!)

Nobody knows anything.

For a minute there I thought this was a post about the Democratic party.

3 posted on 11/07/2006 5:42:08 AM PST by kipita (Conservatives: Freedom and Responsibility………Liberals: Freedom from Responsibility)

I know. Here's how I know.

AirAmerica - Failure
Dixie Chicks - Failure
New York Times - On the Rocks
Katie Couric - Failure
NBC's Fall Libbie Lineup - Failure
John F. Kerry - Despised

America has been talking. People just haven't been listening.

4 posted on 11/07/2006 5:59:23 AM PST by gridlock (The GOP will pick up at least TWO seats in the Senate and FOUR seats in the House in 2006)

AND, not one of these so-called experts has ever even mentioned the hoardes of disenchanted DemocRATS. Its as if the only people on the planet that are staying home, pissed off, are Republicans. They have missed the boat on this one; the RATS will stay home in droves.

5 posted on 11/07/2006 12:55:10 PM PST by thelastvirgil (Lest ye put all your faith in the government to provide for you, check their track record.)

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.