Posted on 11/07/2006 3:32:03 AM PST by Admin Moderator
Edited on 11/07/2006 6:20:47 AM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
Thanks. Now let's make Pelosi's worst nightmare come true! GO VOTE!
Knock it off!
(I had to say that just once.) Don't shoot! :)
Faulty exit polls, deliberately put forth by lying leftists, can negatively affect voter turn out. Posting the lies to refute them can still be done after the active attempt to sway the election has passed.
In the interest of discussion, perhaps the exit polls should be posted after the polls have closed....
After the damage is done. That's akin to closing the barn door after the horses have scattered.
If the exit poll leaks are going to be addressed at all, then they need to be addressed in real time, as the leaks are being disseminated.
You ignore your enemy's moves at your own peril. Julius Ceasar saw the dust from Pompey's horses and was able to discern his army's movements and mount a counter offensive. If he'd just buried his head in the sand, he would have been soundly defeated.
We need to know where the dust is being kicked up and we need to mount a couter offensive. The enemy's armies are on the march. Should we just sit here until the battle is over?
There are no Congressional exit polls so it cannot have any impact on the west coast.
I just got on the computer and I am really glad that y'all did this. We know how accurate they are!
Which was what??
She's over dressed...
No one is suggesting that we 'ignore' what the enemy is doing.
And with that, I sense that this conversation should be over.
I'm going to DO something about this election day. I'm going to PRAY.
FAR more effective than chatting about what the exit polls say.......
We all know this drill works. if the exits polls are bad news for the GOP, they will leak like cajun levees. if they are good news for Republicans, no one will hear about them. ever. they'll just lie, and say the Democrats are winning.
There. Fixed it for ya'!
EXCELLENT!
What I wouldn't give for a "Do-Over" button.
; )
Damn right!
Btw, when can we expect to get serious results of the election?
Can't tell if there are really two of you or if this is schizophrenia.
A shocking exit poll from a small farming community in Kansas. There was a poll worker that was under 70! We had electronic voting machines for the first time and there was a young man in his twenties showing people how to work the machine.
My, my, what more can be said other than read the tag line. I liked it so much it became permanent.
Judging from the replies on this board it appears that mine is the minority position. I just hope we don't wake up tommorrow and find we are all in the minority position.
I'm going to DO something about this election day. I'm going to PRAY.
Best advice going. I'm praying for mercy and not judgment.
Challenging others to get out and vote, and praying, indeed, for God's mercy on this nation WILL make a difference.
I prefer to do the latter.
Biased And Inaccurate Predictions Have Led To Poor
GOP Exit Poll Showings In Past Three National Elections
_______________________________________
FAST FACTS ON EXIT POLLING
EXIT POLLS TRADITIONALLY HAVE A DEMOCRAT BIAS
Exit Polls Give Democrats An Edge:
Exit Polling Always Tends To "Give An Edge To Democratic Candidates." President of Mitofsky International, Warren Mitofsky: "Mitofsky said exit polls have always tended to give an edge to Democratic candidates ..." (John Cook, "Early Exit Polls Overstated Kerry Results, Media Group Says," Chicago Tribune, 1/20/05)
Democrats More Likely Than Republicans To Respond To Exit Polls:
October 2006 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll Found Democrats Were More Likely To Respond To Exit Polls Than Republicans.
In 2006, Exit Polls Skew In Favor Of Democrats, Due To Large Numbers Of Uncontested Seats In The House:
In 2006, There Are Over 40 Uncontested Democrat Seats And 10 Uncontested GOP Seats, Which Will Overstate National Democrat House Vote In Exit Polling. (National Journal Website, www.nationaljournal.com, Accessed 11/6/06)
IN 2004, EXIT POLLING PREDICTED OVERWHELMING DEMOCRAT VICTORIES
In 2004, Exit Polls "Got All Of The Bush States Wrong" - Predictions Were "Most Skewed" Since Exit Polling Began:
Exit Polls Showed Across-The-Board Failure. "[T]he networks did get the exit polls wrong. Not just one of them. They got all of the Bush states wrong." (Dick Morris, "Those Faulty Exit Polls Were Sabotage," The Hill, 11/4/04)
USA Today: "In fact, the 2004 numbers were the most skewed since joint exit polling began in the 1980s." (Editorial, "Exit Polls' Cloud Crystal Ball," USA Today, 1/20/05)
In 2004, National Election Pool (NEP) Incorrectly Projected Victories For Sen. John Kerry (D-MA):
"ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox, And NBC ... Created The National Election Pool To Provide Tabulated Vote Counts And Exit Poll Surveys ... These Six Major News Organization, In A Joint Decision ... Appointed Edison Media Research And Mitofsky International As The Sole Provider Of Exit Polls ..." (Exit-Poll.net Website, http://www.exit-poll.net/, Accessed 10/24/06)
"In The 32 States With Exit Poll Estimates For Both A Presidential Race And A Senate Race The Average Error On The Difference Between The Top Two Candidates Was 5.0 Points In The Democratic Direction For President And 3.6 Points In The Democratic Direction For Senate." (Edison Media Research And Mitofsky International, "Evaluation Of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 For The National Election Pool," 1/19/05, p. 20)
NEP's Exit Poll Projections Underestimated President Bush's Support In Several Key States:
NEP's Exit Poll Projections Had Republicans Winning Only 51 Senate Seats Instead Of 55 Seats They Hold Now:
Political Professionals Agree 2004 Highlighted Exit Polling's Failures:
Zogby International's John Zogby: "I'm not sure that I will ever believe an exit poll again ... How could they have been so way off? They were worse than virtually every pre-election poll." (John Cook, "Early Exit Polls Overstated Kerry Results, Media Group Says," Chicago Tribune, 1/20/05)
The Washington Post's Director Of Polling Richard Morin: "[T]he 2004 election may have finally stripped exit polling of its reputation as the crown jewel of political surveys, somehow immune from the myriad problems that affect telephone polls and other types of public opinion surveys." (Richard Morin, Op-Ed, "Surveying The Damage," The Washington Post, 11/21/04)
President Of Mason-Dixon Polling Firm Brad Corker: "Exit Polls Are Often Wrong". "[B]rad Coker, president of the Mason-Dixon polling firm that called Bush's 2.5-percentage-point win in Ohio practically right on the nose for The Plain Dealer, says ... exit polls are often wrong." (Ted Diadiun, "Rest Assured, We Checked Out Election 2004 Thoroughly," The [Cleveland] Plain Dealer, 6/18/06)
"Herb Asher, An Ohio State University Political Scientist, Said Election Results Don't Necessarily Reflect Exit Polls." (John Nolan, "Forty Voters Want November Election Results Thrown Out," The Associated Press, 12/14/04)
CNN's Bill Schneider: "The lesson here is put not your faith in exit polls ... particularly if the exit poll is close ... Exit polls are designed for analysis. ... They are not very good ..." (William Douglas, "Turnout: The Early Exit Polls Mostly Wrong," Detroit Free Press, 11/4/04)
Then-CNN Anchor Judy Woodruff: "People want to jump on (exit polls) because they are the first little sliver, little shred of evidence ... It's dangerous to seize on those numbers and assume anything - and yet that's what happened." (Michelle Mittelstadt, "Exit Poll Group Assailed For Erroneous Early Results," The Dallas Morning News, 11/4/04)
Pollster Andrew Kohut: "[D]oing [exit polls] on the fly has led us astray." (Michelle Mittelstadt, "Exit Poll Group Assailed For Erroneous Early Results," The Dallas Morning News, 11/4/04)
EXIT POLLS WERE ALSO WIDELY INACCURATE IN 2002 AND 2000 ELECTIONS
FLASHBACK FACT: In 2002 Midterms, Exit Polls Were Scrapped Due To Inaccuracy:
VNS Consortium Scrapped 2002 National Exit Polls Because It Could Not Guarantee Accuracy. "Voter News Service abandoned its state and national exit poll plans for Election Night, saying it could not guarantee the accuracy of the analysis which media organizations use to help explain why people voted as they did." ("VNS Abandons National Exit Poll Operation, A Setback For Revamped Elections System," The Associated Press, 11/6/02)
FLASHBACK FACT: In 2000 Presidential Campaign, Exit Polls Were Badly Flawed In Critical State Of Florida:
In 2000, Exit Polls Were Badly Flawed In Critical State Of Florida. "[S]ome bad assumptions led Voter News Service, the television network exit poll consortium, to make and then retract two dramatic election-night predictions on the winner of the presidential race in Florida." (Richard Morin and Claudia Deane, "Why The Fla. Exit Polls Were Wrong," The Washington Post, 11/8/00)
Experts Lament Exit Polling's "Poor" Predictions In 2000. "Paul Biemer, a statistician hired to review the VNS methodology, reported that 49 percent of those surveyed leaving the polls declined to respond. In the parlance of his trade, Mr. Biemer said 'a non-response rate of this magnitude is a potential source of statistical bias in the model projections ...' In other words, exit polls are poor predictors." (Jules Witcover, Op-Ed, "Voters Don't Need Instant TV Results," The [Baltimore, MD] Sun, 2/16/01)
Faulty Media Reports In 2000 Impacted Florida Panhandle And Congressional Races:
"About 7:50 P.M. EST Tuesday, Less Than An Hour After Most Of The Polls Closed In Florida, Both CBS And NBC Declared Mr. Gore The Winner In That State, A Decision Based Largely Upon Exit Polls Conducted By Voter News Service. Fox News, CNN And ABC Followed Within Minutes." (John Godfrey, "Tauzin Plans Hearings On Gaffe," The Washington Times, 11/10/00)
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