Posted on 11/06/2006 11:29:37 AM PST by excludethis
TO: REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP AND INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: KEN MEHLMAN DATE: NOVEMBER 6, 2006 RE: ANOTHER POLL CONFIRMS GOP MOMENTUM
The momentum continues with a fourth poll in recent days showing Republicans gaining ground on Democrats in the closing days of the election. James Carville and Stan Greenbergs Democracy Corps poll (November 2-5) confirms the findings of three other polls released in the last two days that show Republicans gaining ground in their competitive district survey.
GENERIC BALLOT. Republicans have cut the margin from down 11 (41-52) last week to down only four (45-49) this morning.
PARTY IMAGE. Democracy Corps shows that Republicans have a better image rating than Democrats for the first time since early September. From their last poll, Republicans favorable/unfavorable ratio had improved a net-5 points while Democrats dropped a net-4 points.
HANDLING OF ISSUES. A big reason for Republican gains is that trust on key issues has increased over the past few weeks. Built on recent good economic news, Republicans handling on the economy has improved a net-9 points from a week ago. Republicans have also seen significant gains on handling of taxes (+7), Iraq (+7) and national security (+4).
GOP CAMPAIGNS MAKING IMPACT. Another significant reason for Republican gains can be found in the GOPs 72-hour get out the vote program which is now in full swing. This poll showed that Republicans have made a greater impact than Democrats with TV ads (+6), mailings (+6), and phone calls (+6).
OTHER INDICATORS IMPROVE.
Direction of the nation, otherwise known as right track / wrong track, improved a net-6 points from their previous poll. The Presidents job approval has increased a net-5 points and Congressional Job Approval increased a net-12 points from their October 25-29 survey.
Wow, a democrat poll showing this!
By the way, I received a broadcast E-mail from Ken Mehlman today saying the GOP contacted 7 million voters throughout the key races over this past weekend.
Yeah, I know he was a Donk. But he was my kind of Donk.
The Democrats have been writing Wednesday's headlines in their minds for the past 18 months. Now it is time for us to go out and write the real one by voting tomorrow.
Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman alleged other memo to press:
New polls say our party is heading into Election Day with strong momentum. Specifically, three national polls this weekend show Republicans making major gains.
The Generic Ballot is Closing -- The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press (Nov. 1-4) shows Republicans cutting the Democrat lead on the generic ballot from down 11 last month (39- 50) to down just four points today (43-47). The ABC News/Washington Post poll (Nov. 1-4) shows Republicans cutting the Democrat edge from -14 two weeks ago to only a six point margin today. In addition, Gallup (Nov. 2-5) has the Democrat margin dropping by half over the past two weeks, to a seven-point race.
By comparison, while Republicans held an average 1-point lead in these polls in 1994 and 2002, the current average Democrat lead-six points-is the same as it was in 1998, when there was minimal change in the balance of Congress.
Republican Enthusiasm is Growing -- Democrat interest in the election has remained relatively static, while Republican interest (+14) and enthusiasm (+10) have increased significantly, according to Pew, which concludes "Republicans now register a greater likelihood of voting than do Democrats..."
Republicans are Picking Up More Swing Votes -- The ABC/ Washington Post poll showed a net 10-point gain for Republicans among independents from last month. Pew showed a similar gain among independents of 10 points since last month and a huge 17- point net gain among moderates.
More Republicans/Conservatives Will Now Vote --
The ABC/Washington Post poll shows the Republican edge in the generic ballot has increased 10 points among conservatives, from 68-29 (a month ago) to 73-24.
The final pre-election Pew poll shows a similar trend with Republicans now planning to support the GOP growing a net-3 points. It also shows a net-6 point increase among conservatives and net-18 points among white evangelical Christians.
72-Hour Program is Working -- The GOP's 72-hour program has reached 27 million volunteer contacts through Saturday, hitting 3 million voters this Saturday alone. By and large, this effort will have its impact on Election Day and will not show up in most public opinion polls. However, some trends are starting to be seen in the data:
Republicans are casting a wider net: According to the ABC/Washington Post poll, among those who have been contacted by campaigns, 70 percent were contacted by Republicans while only 61 percent were contacted by Democrats.
And using better targeting: The Pew study says that we are not only contacting more voters, but contacting the right voters: 40 percent of our party was contacted by Republicans, while Democrats only connected with 34 percent of their own party.
Other Evidence of Momentum --
The ABC/Washington Post poll shows Republicans gaining on handling of Iraq (+8) and Personal Values (+12).
The Kerry Factor -- John Kerry's "stuck in Iraq" remark has attracted the attention of 84 percent of voters, and 19 percent - - including 18 percent of independents -- say it has raised serious doubts about voting for their local Democratic candidates.
Following recent gains in the Dow and low unemployment numbers, those who see the economy as excellent or good increased from 36 percent to 44 percent in the Pew poll.
On average, the President's job approval increased a net 4 points.
Voters' view of the direction of country has improved dramatically -- a net 14-point gain among those that see things going in the right direction in the ABC poll and a 12-point gain in Gallup.
Rush is right today , the Dems are very afraid.You wouldn't know it from the chattering classes and their predictions of a GOP apocalypse. They put up a brave front, those fearful Democrats. What I want to hear is how they spin the reversal should their predictions prove false.
I have this to say in response to this news:
MWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
That said, if you haven't already (via early voting or absentee voting) make sure you get to your local polling place tomorrow!
Excellent!
Go BIG MO!
"You wouldn't know it from the chattering classes and their predictions of a GOP apocalypse."
The Dims & MSM sound like Saddam and Islamo Nazis with their talk like "the mother of all battles" and "how you infidels will lose" don't they?
Not the buzz the Dems and the MSM wanted on election eve.
BTTT
Dow rallies triple digits on string of deals ~~ November 6 2006...Pelosi saddened....
They must have concluded that their efforts at suppressing the GOP vote have failed.
Two words: John Kerry. That's how they'll spin it. That and of course faulty voting machines.
The only people susceptible to voter suppression tactics are the weak minded...so, only Dem ploys work on Dems...
Muahahahahahahahaahahhhahahahaha....
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