Posted on 11/06/2006 8:02:27 AM PST by Ellesu
At this point, the day before the mid-term elections, the political future of U.S. Congressman Bill Jefferson (D-New Orleans) is very much in question. Jefferson has served for 16 years, eight terms, and has cruised to victory each time with little or no opposition. However, after becoming the target of a wide ranging federal investigation involving potentially serious charges of bribery, Jefferson is in the race of his life. The incumbent faces 12 challengers, four that are considered serious.
At the start of the campaign, Jefferson enjoyed a sizable lead in the polls; however, as the race progressed, and State Representative Karen Carter (D-New Orleans) started pounding Jefferson in television commercials for being the target of a federal investigation, the congressman’s comfortable position eroded. Some recent polls show that Jefferson has lost his lead entirely.
Right now, polls show four African-American Democratic candidates (Jefferson, Karen Carter, former New Orleans Councilman Troy Carter and State Senator Derrick Shepherd) within striking distance of the run-off; however, it would be unwise to write off the major GOP candidate in the race, Republican attorney Joe Lavigne. In recent days, Lavigne has focused solely on Karen Carter, attacking the State Representative for her sizeable city and state contracts and claiming that she “lied” to the Times Picayune about the size of the contracts. For most of the race, Karen Carter has enjoyed decent support from white voters and even some Republican voters. Therefore, Lavigne is trying to wrest as many white voters from Carter as possible, hoping to slide into a run-off himself. He has not pounded Jefferson; because that is the candidate he wants to face in the run-off.
The problem for Lavigne is that Jefferson may not make the run-off. Blocking Jefferson’s path to the run-off may be former Councilman Troy Carter, who is running a solid race, surprising people with his strong support in Algiers and in the white community. Many analysts underestimated Troy Carter from the beginning of the race, forgetting that he served for 16 years in public office and that his former council district comprises a sizeable portion of congressional district. Carter has the endorsement of New Orleans Councilman Arnie Fielkow and Jefferson Parish Sheriff Harry Lee. Troy Carter has not raised as much money as his major competitors, but he has enough for television commercials, saving them for right time, in the final days of the race.
Also, potentially thwarting Jefferson could be Senator Shepherd, who has done a superb job of rallying support in Jefferson Parish. Except for Harry Lee and District Attorney Paul Connick, who is remaining neutral for this election, the major figures in the parish are endorsing Shepherd, giving the State Senator a strong base of support for Tuesday’s election. Among Shepherd’s supporters is Jefferson Parish Assessor Lawrence Chehardy, a Republican, who is legendary for his ability to sway voters by sending a simple letter announcing his endorsement in the final days of an election. The Chehardy endorsement is always coveted because it always carries real political weight, tested in many election cycles.
Jefferson also needs to be concerned about turnout, for it will be low in this election, even with the congressman’s street money and campaign organization. One indication of the low turnout is the paltry number of displaced voters who cast early ballots, compared to the mayor’s election. Overall absentee vote totals are even running behind the Secretary of State election on September 30. For that election, turnout was only 22% statewide and only 12% in the Second Congressional District.
Most analysts believe that turnout in the congressional race will fall between 20 and 25%, much lower than the 38% who voted in the mayor’s race. Turnout could also be diminished even further if there is bad weather on Tuesday, a possibility.
So, the run-off will go to the two candidates who can turnout his or her vote the best. Facing Jefferson are three experienced African-American Democrats who have organizations and name recognition. The other major candidate is a white Republican who will benefit from the usual higher turnout among GOP voters in the district. If Lavigne can solidify support among Republicans and other white conservative voters, he has a fighting chance to make the run-off as well.
It is a very complicated situation, with the Katrina displacement and the multitude of candidates. Jefferson does not seem to enjoy the loyalty or enthusiasm among voters that Ray Nagin did in the mayor’s race. Certainly the ongoing federal investigation is a factor, as well as the legitimacy of his competition. It will all make for an interesting election night and could very well lead to some surprises.
If you vote for Jefferson...you deserve him.
Are they really going to elect that crook again?
No.
Jefferson"s "walking around money" is sitting in an FBI account.
The other Democrats' "walking around money" is on the street.
Easy to see which Democrats have the electoral advantage.
It appears more than one Democrat is on the ballot; how can this be?
Several things: one, the lone white Republican is a non-factor (I am one and in this district a white Republican will not win - period); the real race is for second place which Karen Carter seems to have the far likliest chance of winning (she could sneak into first place, actually); and finally, ANYONE in run-off against Jefferson will - Jeff will have about 25% to 30%and conversely will have 70 to 75% voting against him in the run-off. Also, remember, if you think this primary will be a low turn-out event, wait until the December run-off. Those of us who despise Jefferson will go out even if it snows.
"It appears more than one Democrat is on the ballot; how can this be?"
Louisiana has a unique election process. This will partly explain it (scroll down on the page):
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G06/LA.phtml
Thanks!
I am very interested why Derrick Shepard is not getting more love by the papers down there.
It would seem to me that Derrick Shepard should be in a good position
(1)He is a JAG officer in the reserves and From Jeff Parish thus making him likeable to the Repubs and conservatives
(2) That the Jeffesrson Parish vote usually a non factor would all be behind him because of this rare opportunity to get one of their own in
Or are Republicans and conservatives in Orleans Parish also factoring in a healthy bit of self interest in by wanting to continue to make sure that some someone from Orleans continues to be in this seat.
I realize there is a Republican in the race, but if I was down there I would be one on the ones to be making a stragetic choice to vote for Carter or Shepard.
I think its an interesting race. If labor breaks for Shepard or Carter I don't think Jefferson makes the runnoff. I think Jeffersons yes vote on CATA(which I supported) is going to hurt him.
By the way for those interested in 08 we are going to closed primaries for Federal offices so this scenario we are seeing will not happen again. That might be factored in also as to pople in making their choices down there.
By the way, I am convinced something huge relating to Jefferson is about to come down. The Feds have got him. Its apparent to me that even his lawyer turned state evidence on him because he returned his fee.
Jefferson I think must be working with the Feds as a part of a plea deal. I dont think its against some lowly Louisiana official either since Jefferson I think kept his ventures out of Louisiana.
Someone just emailed me saying that Derick Shepard is anti abortion and is against Stem Cell research. I guess that is why the NOLA papers dont't like him
As to the effect of JP vote...are you kidding? This is a gerrymadendered Orleans Parish seat. Labor has nothing to do with it, nor do Orleans Parish conservatives, who as the screwy map would have it, live in Jindal's district. Do some research...Labor has nothing to do with it.
Perhaps Shepard isn't getting enough "love" from the papers because his hired hacks have just about as much understanding of the situation here as you do
I dont live the New Orleans anymore s I dodnt see the deate. I did hear though the challengers to Jeffersons performance was not that hot
I am not saying that Republicans would vote for someone just because they were are in the military. If that was the case Hunt Downer would be Governor. But besides Hunt he is the only Legislator I can think that is serving the miliary in the Giard or Reserves. That at least makes him stand out from the rest of the Louisiana POliticos serving in Baton Rouge. So yes, I am impressed by that.
As to the district I am fully aware that is district for Orleans. However with basically waht looks like a three way or maybe even 4 way race to get in the race a unified Jeff vote would be a asset.
As to Labor, I have to disagree with you a tad. I hear that its still a force in this election. We shall see tonight. From my understanding Labor leadership is backing Jefferson but there is discontent in the rank and file over it
Again not down there and that is one reason I am asking. I just find it strange that a State Senator is not getting more press coverage in this race. Especially since he looks like he is in striking distance of making the runnoff. Its not like he is at 5 percent
William Jefferson (i) Democrat 1,720 (31%)
Joseph Lavigne Republican 636 (12%)
Troy Carter Democrat 593 (11%)
Derrick Shepherd Democrat 485 (9%)
Eric Bradley Republican 56 (1%)
Regina Bartholomew Democrat 54 (1%)
Gregory Kahn Libertarian 40 (1%)
John Edwards Democrat 33 (1%)
Scott Barron Democrat 32 (1%)
M. V. Mendoza Democrat 26 (0%)
Lance von Uhde Republican 13 (0%)
Deven Collins Democrat 11 (0%)
Not up to date numbers but look at all of the people.
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