Posted on 11/06/2006 5:21:38 AM PST by excludethis
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The percentage of likely voters who plan to vote for Democrats in Tuesday's congressional elections increased in the past week, and those voters supporting Democrats also seem less likely to change their minds before casting ballots, according to a CNN poll conducted over the weekend.
Democrats hold a 58 percent to 38 percent advantage over Republicans among likely voters in the survey released Monday morning, compared to the 53 percent to 42 percent advantage reflected in the poll a week ago. Pollsters asked people who wires.send-nat-b wires.send-nat-b identified themselves as being likely to vote which party's candidate they would you vote for in their congressional district if the election were being held today.
On this question, the poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
In the so-called "poll of polls," which averages the results of five national surveys, the Democrats have a 53 percent to 41 percent margin over the Republicans.
When asked if it is possible they could change their mind before election day, 17 percent of those likely voters who supported Republican congressional candidates said they might instead chose the Democrat, while just 10 percent of those supporting Democrats said a switch was possible.
The poll's sampling error on this question was plus or minus 6 percentage points.
The CNN poll, conducted by telephone on November 3-5
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
I don't trust anything that comes from the Clinton News Network.
You're working overtime trying to get all the negative news onto FR, aren't you? :-)
They pulled out all the stops and threw away the minscule objectivity they ever had.
After the democrats lose tomorrow, the next biggest loser will be the media, as their influence like their profits decline on a steep plane.
What a JOKE! This dead, 110% opposite of what the other polls are showing.
CNN wouldn't cook the books would they?
Its a Ted Turner slanted poll.
Yea, right...
It's OK with me. I am spared looking around for the idiot reports. We need to read what the other side is saying.
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/
[snip]
A Look Inside That Pew Poll
Pew Research has published its crosstabs for the poll that shows the Republicans tightening up the race, which I linked last night. The internals deliver even more bad news to the Democrats, as significant leads in several demographic categories have been cut drastically or wiped out entirely.
The last Pew Research poll was taken in early October. In a month, the Democrats have lost non-minorities altogether. The gap among all whites went from +5 Democrats to +5 GOP, a ten-point swing. White females had supported Democrats by a 15-point margin and a majority (55-40), but now give the GOP a 2-point lead. The Democrats have also lost the middle class, a big problem in this election.
Households earning between $50K-$75K and $30K-$50K have both slipped to the GOP. The former switched from a 14-point margin for the Democrats to an eight-point Republican lead, while the latter has had an even more dramatic shift. Those earners had favored Democrats by 22 points, but now go Republican by 3. The Democrats even lost the tie they had with earners above $75K, and now trail there by seven. They did extend their margin for earners below $30K from 25 points to 30.
In the religious demographics, where the Democrats have tried mightily to find some traction, they also have problems. They held a thin lead (5 points) among all Protestants, but now trail by 9. Their ten-point lead among white mainline Protestants has dissipated into a tie. They lead among all Catholic, having lost three points off of an eight-point lead, but non-Hispanic Catholics now favor the GOP by 5 points, a ten-point shift.
Even in areas where Democrats maintained their leads, they have cause for some nail-biting. They lost part of their margin among self-described moderates, going from a whopping 44 points to 27. They had led in all regions of the country a month ago, but now have lost the South altogether in a 16-point shift, and a 26-point gap in the Northeast has narrowed to nine points -- a remarkable comeback for Republicans in a liberal stronghold. The GOP also cut the Democratic lead among urban voters from 32 points to 10.
The theme of this poll is the attack on Democratic gains in this election cycle. The GOP has rolled back the Democratic intrusion onto Republican demographics, which leaves the field looking similar to 2004 and 2002. This race may hold some very unpleasant surprises for the Democrats in the House races if these numbers hold up or continue to erode over the next 40 hours.
Posted by Captain Ed at 05:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Troops Speak Out Against Withdrawal
We have heard a lot from the Democrats in this election season about supporting the troops by withdrawing them from Iraq. Terms like "phased redeployment" and "event horizon" have been thrown around by critics of the war. However, the people that will have to execute those maneuvers do not have much enthusiasm for them, the Washington Post reports:
For the U.S. troops fighting in Iraq, the war is alternately violent and hopeful, sometimes very hot and sometimes very cold. It is dusty and muddy, calm and chaotic, deafeningly loud and eerily quiet.
The one thing the war is not, however, is finished, dozens of soldiers across the country said in interviews. And leaving Iraq now would have devastating consequences, they said.
With a potentially historic U.S. midterm election on Tuesday and the war in Iraq a major issue at the polls, many soldiers said the United States should not abandon its effort here. Such a move, enlisted soldiers and officers said, would set Iraq on a path to civil war, give new life to the insurgency and create the possibility of a failed state after nearly four years of fighting to implant democracy.
"Take us out of that vacuum -- and it's on the edge now -- and boom, it would become a free-for-all," said Lt. Col. Mark Suich, who commands the 1st Squadron, 89th Cavalry Regiment just south of Baghdad. "It would be a raw contention for power. That would be the bloodiest piece of this war."
The soldiers declined to discuss the political jousting back home, but they expressed support for the Bush administration's approach to the war, which they described as sticking with a tumultuous situation to give Iraq a chance to stand on its own.
Not only do they see "phased redeployment" as a potential disaster, they see an improvement in the situation in Iraq. One New Jersey officer recently returned to Iraq for the first time since 2003 and tells the Post that Iraq had made real progress. A self-proclaimed liberal, he said, "Pulling out now would be as bad or worse than going forward with no changes," and predicted an end to democratic self-government almost immediately.
Worse still, the troops have worked hard to gain the trust of Iraqi civilians for over three years. They have created a network of relationships and intelligence links in the general population and alliances with tribal leaders. It took a long time for Iraqis to forget the betrayal of 1991, when the US failed to support a rebellion against Saddam Hussein after failing to march on Baghdad during the first Gulf War. A "phased redeployment" would abandon those same people all over again to the terrorists within and outside of Iraq.
None of them have any illusions that Iraq will suddenly and miraculously find peace. The soldiers and Marines on the ground believe it will take a long time and much hard work to bring a democratic Iraq to full viablity, at least completely. They tell the Post that the Kurdish region is only about four or five months away from full autonomy and self-sufficiency in terms of security (economically, they're farther ahead than that). Baghdad will be the toughest nut to crack, they all acknowledge, and that might take years of effort. However, all of them believe in the mission and see that the alternative consigns the Iraqis to tyranny and terrorism for decades or more.
The mission has had its failures, but it has had tremendous successes as well. If the US turns its back on the Iraqis now, Somalia will pale into insignificance in comparison to the disaster, both militarily and strategically, we will have brought upon ourselves. Native populations will never -- never -- trust us to stand by and protect them after risking everything to assist us. Tyrants and terrorists will laugh at our threats, knowing they can outlast us, especially if they can create enough propaganda to distract American voters.
The soldiers and Marines understand that victory cannot be replaced by "phased redeployment". If the tactics need changing or adjustment, then bring in better ideas -- but we cannot allow retreat and capitulation become the only other option for Iraq.
Posted by Captain Ed at 05:34 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
[snip] Lots more: http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/
Had me! Until I saw CNN. Then you lost me.
NEVER REST - GET OUT THE GOP VOTE!!!!
6 POINT MOE? HOLY CR*P
HAHAHAHAHA! Only CNN is sticking to their fake Polls. The rest of the Polling groups are changing their Predictions to save their sorry asses. They know if they keep up the fake Polls, they won't have any work in 08. CNN hasn't figured that out yet!
I think I see a problem...
That poll is an outlier. Just the target for a CNN tout.
Only because they polled 100% registered Democrats.
Not another Crackingham?
I think they mean Pee yew Poll from CNN, because something about it has an odor.
This is meaningless tripe. If, in an already Dem district, the election goes 99 - 1 against the Rep. Huge margin - only one seat, no net change. Measuring the generic makes no sense unless we are told exactly where the poll was taken - they are probably polling places that already have a proclivity for Dems.
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