Posted on 11/05/2006 5:04:39 AM PST by Tennessean4Bush
With a new poll showing Republican Bob Corker's lead over Democrat Harold Ford Jr. surging to double digits days before Tuesday's election, both U.S. Senate campaigns scrambled Saturday to keep voters engaged and motivated.
The latest Mason-Dixon Tennessee Poll, conducted by telephone Wednesday through Friday, showed Corker leading Ford 50-38 percent among 625 likely voters. Two weeks ago, the poll -- sponsored by The Commercial Appeal, the Chattanooga Times-Free Press, MSNBC and McClatchy Newspapers -- gave Corker a 45-43 lead.
Ford changed his campaign schedule Saturday to fly from Knoxville back to Memphis to condemn the poll and encourage supporters.
"In all of these polls, the methodology has to be questioned," Ford said Saturday afternoon at a rally at the corner of Poplar and Highland. "All internal polls show this race as a dead heat."
Ford added that the polls don't reflect early votes, which totaled 867,000 statewide. In Shelby County, 142,411 people, nearly a quarter of all registered voters, cast absentee and early ballots.
Corker, meanwhile, in Knoxville shaking hands with University of Tennessee football fans, cautioned his supporters not to get overly confident.
"I know the momentum is with us, but we all know the only poll that matters is on Nov. 7 and we're just doing everything we can do to get people to vote," Corker said.
For Corker's campaign, the Mason-Dixon poll was another "credible independent poll" that showed their candidate leading Ford by anywhere from 5 to 10 points. Recent polls by CNN, Zogby and Rasmussen Reports all put Corker ahead.
But to Ford's campaign, it was another example of a "flawed" public poll that under-represents Democrats, African-Americans and young voters, and fails to account for the deluge in early voting that shows Democratic turnout up as much as 30 percent.
Pete Brodnitz, Ford's pollster, notes that internal Democratic and Republican polls continue to show the Tennessee race as too close to call.
"These internal polls use voter registration lists and voter histories to select potential poll respondents, as opposed to randomly dialing households, which is how the public polls are conducted," Brodnitz said.
"Because none of the polls made public this week use voter lists or histories to determine who is a 'likely voter' they include large numbers of respondents who are not actually voters."
Results of the most recent Mason-Dixon poll are all the more striking, considering that most public polls had Ford or Corker ahead by anywhere from 1 to 5 points in early October. The first Mason-Dixon poll, conducted the last week of September, gave Ford a 43-32 lead.
"Corker's biggest problem was division among the (Republican) ranks," said J. Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington.
Polls conducted before the August primaries showed Republican Corker leading Democrat Ford by several points.
"The Republican primary got ugly and that cost Corker some early support, but Tennessee has been trending Republican for years and this poll shows that Republicans are coming back to Corker."
John Geer, political science professor at Vanderbilt University, doubts that can account for Corker's 10-point surge in two weeks.
"A 12-point lead seems a little high at this point," Geer said.
"The results show that a lot of Republicans are coming home to Corker, and I can buy that, but this kind of surge in this short a time doesn't add up."
Geer says some of the poll's results seem contradictory.
For example, a majority of those polled (51-44 percent) said they disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, including more independents (47-44 percent). But when asked which candidate would do a better job handling issues related to the war, 49 percent picked Republican Corker and only 32 percent picked Democrat Ford.
Also, in the new poll, 47 percent said they think the country is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 57 percent two weeks ago.
"There's no way to explain the numbers, although all the polls seem to show Corker moving ahead," Geer said.
"I guess it's possible that the election in Tennessee is more about Ford than it is about Bush."
The Republican Party and Corker himself have injected millions of dollars into the campaign in recent weeks to try to make the election about Ford. Mason-Dixon's Coker said the poll shows that the Republican Party's massive anti-Ford ad campaign has served its purpose.
"People don't like to say that they are influenced by negative ads, but obviously they have been," Coker said. "Ford's negatives have made a big jump in the past few weeks."
According to the poll, 47 percent have a favorable opinion of Corker and 33 percent unfavorable.
For Ford, the numbers were 39 percent favorable and 44 percent unfavorable.
Betty Hickman of Kingsport, who describes herself as a Republican, said it comes down to trust. "I think Corker will do what he says he'll do. I trust him; I don't trust Ford."
Rudy Newby of Tullahoma said the anti-Ford ads didn't change his mind.
"I'm a Democrat. I'm voting for Ford," Newby said.
"I believe Ford as a Democrat will do more for the common man."
Nearly everyone polled (86 percent) agreed that the campaign was "very negative" or "somewhat negative." When asked which candidate's campaign has been more negative, 27 percent said Corker and 12 percent said Ford, but 57 percent said both were about equally negative.
This campaign has been terrible," said Emma Cowan of Tullahoma, a Democrat who said she's voting for Ford. "If you have a TV, it's about the only thing you can see, those awful campaign ads. Both have been bad but I think Corker's have been worse."
According to the poll, the negative ads aimed at Ford seem to be helping Corker.
For example, 81 percent said they had seen an ad sponsored by the Republican National Committee that features a blonde woman saying she met "Harold" at a Playboy party and asks, seductively, for him to call her. Among those who saw the ad, 23 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Corker, 10 percent said Ford.
Diane Halford of Bartlett, who describes herself as an independent voting for Corker, said the negative ads sent her to the Internet to do her own research.
"It's been a smear campaign on both sides," said Halford. "All those horrible ads made me want to get the facts for myself. I didn't want personalities to have anything to do with my vote. I wanted to base my vote on their records."
Bye-Bye Demwit.
how cares if he challenges the poll....the polls mean nothing.....the only poll that means anything is the election on tuesday and that one ...the republicans must win!!!!
Ford believes this seat is his birthright. He has the Memphis machine going full-force.
Ford is right about one thing. The poll is probably inaccurate. I'm sure it overestimated Ford's support by 4-5 points.
When a Republican does this, usually MSM call him/her 'desperate'.
I knew Ford had given up the moment he asked Bill Clinton for help. Clinton may energize some African-American voters, but he will turn off the Christian/Evangelical vote which is Ford's main concern right now.
Start practicing saying "Senator Corker".
For us the accuracy of the poll isn't all that important; the important thing is its affect on the RATs.
Duh! Ford made two major blunders -- rudely crashing Corker's press conference and playing the race card in the ad in which race played no part. I suspect he will be the first in a long line of loser to cry voter intimidation and fraud. I hope the margin is large enough for him to concede immediately and not drag this out.
""In all of these polls, the methodology has to be questioned,""
Too funny! When he crashed Corker's press conference and replied to Corker's remark about being 'desperate' Ford told the reporters "No, we're ahead in the polls, man, every poll in the state, every poll in the country demonstrates us ahead"
Hear it for yourself, at 1:32 in this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPHIhUzXvQ0
Please, please, you good folks of Tennessee...send this little twit into obscurity once and for all. Please!
Only one poll counts.
Results of that will be plain to see sometime late in the evening on November 7th or certainly by November 8th.
Gopher broke.
Not just his seat, like the rest of the fords JUNIOR feels he's annointed by GOD to the seat...then on to the White House. Look at him having his kool-aid drinking ministers laying hands one him. just for that reason.
This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a well-known polling firm with a good reputation. It was sponsored by the Memphis Commercial Appeal, the Chattanooga Times-Free Press, MSNBC, and McClatchy newspapers. These are independent, if not liberal sponsors.
There is no other way to spin this than Ford is way behind.
""I believe Ford as a Democrat will do more for the common man."
Pimp my ride baby!
LLS
"I wanted to base my vote on their records."
Include ford's dad's record and you have some colorful material there! Perhaps they meant "Police record"?
LLS
All that time and effort Old Media devoted to decrying that ad had the opposite effect than what they'd hoped for. LOL.
Diane Halford of Bartlett, who describes herself as an independent voting for Corker, said the negative ads sent her to the Internet to do her own research.
"It's been a smear campaign on both sides," said Halford. "All those horrible ads made me want to get the facts for myself. I didn't want personalities to have anything to do with my vote. I wanted to base my vote on their records."
A smart voter! I wish more people would do their homework before voting.
......""I believe Ford as a Democrat will do more for the common man." .......
Democrats do nothing for the common man. They are the party of the Lazy unwashed ignorati who yearn for protection against those who hold them in disdain for their failures.
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