Posted on 11/05/2006 3:09:56 AM PST by Oakleaf
I was ready to give up GOP Sen. Mike DeWine's bid for reelection as a lost cause. And before I go any further, I emphasize, he's still trailing, by any measure. When Zogby Interactive had DeWine down 47 percent to Brown's 49 percent Monday, I figured it was typical Zogby, crazy numbers, not to be trusted.
But did I miss that he's down 7 in a poll by Columbus-based Opinion Consultants? Apparently it was released Wednesday, and I missed it. (And Zogby's other poll, conducted for Reuters, had DeWine down 7.)
Looking at these other polling dates and margins - CNN, 10/29, DeWine down 11, Survey USA, 10/25, down 20; Rasmussen, 10/24, down 11; Los Angeles Times, 10/23, down 12.
Did this race move from double digits to single digits in the past week? Again, I don't want to get false hopes up, but there seems to have been some movement in the past week. And I'm not sure there's been a particular event in this race that would have moved them. So arguably - again, we're trying to read runes in the dark here - there's something to suggest some movement in the Republican direction, and it's broad, not candidate based. Either disgruntled Republicans coming back into the fold, or independents looking at the Democrats and having second thoughts, or both. Or maybe Kerry effect.
Again - might not be enough to swing this race, but I think it's one more tidbit of evidence for a shift in these closing days.
REVISED UPDATE: I had originally written that maybe this wasn't the case, but now I'm confused. This report by Rasmussen is dated November 4 and has Brown over DeWine, 53-41; with leaners, it's about the same, 54-43; but at the bottom of the page it appears these are the results from the poll conducted Oct. 24, 2006.
ANOTHER UPDATE: I looked at the Pennsylvania Senate race numbers. Again, something of a similar little nudge in the last week - nowhere near enough to put Santorum over the top, but you're seeing different margins.
10/17: Greenberg Quinlan -17 10/21: Mason Dixon -12 10/23: Strategic Vision -7 10/25: West Chester U. -11 10/25: Temple U. -16 10/28: Rasmussen -13 10/29: Quinnipiac -10 10/29: Franklin and Marshall -15 10/30: Strategic Vision -10 10/30: Zogby -8 11/02: Muhlenberg College -8
No reason to break out the party hats (and notice Santorum lost ground in the Strategic Vision poll), but in the first five, it looks to be about 14 (with SV as an outlier) and in the second five, it looks about 9 (with Franklin and Marshall as the outlier). Hard to see Santorum finishing on top, but it does look like the numbers are moving.
ONE MORE THOUGHT: The exception to this trend, or at least one race where we're not seeing it, is in Virginia. Latest:
Democrat Jim Webb is edging Republican incumbent George Allen for the U.S. Senate, according to a Times-Dispatch Poll that also shows fading enthusiasm for a ban on same-sex marriage.
In the newspaper’s final pre-election snapshot of voter preferences, Webb leads Allen by a statistically insignificant 1 percentage point, 46 percent to 45 percent. Two percent favor independent Glenda Gail Parker and 7 percent are undecided.
Though it is the first time The Times-Dispatch Poll has shown Webb ahead, the race - which could decide continued Republican control of the Senate - should be viewed as a dead heat because his lead is within the margin of error, plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Also a tossup: approval of a constitutional amendment restricting marriage to a man and a woman.
Support is down to 49 percent from 52 percent last month. With 45 percent now opposed, up from 42 percent last month, the measure - already adopted by 20 states - could go either way because the voter split is within the poll’s variable for error. Six percent are undecided.
As of this writing, I think Allen will win, but it's a weird, ugly race, and a Webb win doesn't seem so unthinkable. I think Bob Novak wrote that when a campaign becomes a circus, it becomes easier to throw out an entrenched incumbent. The other thing that has me rubbing my chin are the Democratic wins in the governor's races in 2001 and 2005. Virginia may not be that red a state anymore, particularly with the growth of the D.C. suburbs.
ANOTHER THOUGHT ON VIRGINIA: This was interesting:
The hotly contested senate race between Democrat Jim Webb and Republican incumbent George Allen is among the issues driving a large statewide increase in absentee ballot applications, according to election officials...
In some counties, requests for absentee ballots are running double or triple the rate from 2002—the last non-presidential federal election.
The trend is especially pronounced in Democratic-leaning northern Virginia.
"The past week or two weeks, it's really had the feel of a presidential election," said Tom Parkins, Alexandria's general registrar. "I don't think we're going to hit presidential turnout in Alexandria or Virginia. But certainly it will go far beyond what we're used to."
About 114,000 people statewide had applied for absentee ballots by Thursday, said Jean Jensen, the state's secretary for the board of elections. That's up from 76,000 who voted absentee in last year's governor's race.
A closely fought congressional race between Democrat Phil Kellam and Republican Rep. Thelma Drake in the Hampton Roads area is also driving a sharp increase in absentee ballot requests in Norfolk.
John Merkel, the city's deputy registrar, said requests we're running double from 2002.
Also affecting numbers is a new federal law that requires state election officials to ensure overseas military personnel can vote by e-mail.
Overseas ballots probably account for about 10 percent of the state's absentee vote, said Vickie Williams of the State Board of Elections.
My first thought is, Northern Virginia is clearly the more Democratic part of the state; high interest for absentee ballots ought to be good news for Webb. But then I think of all the people I know who live in Northern Virginia, and there are more right-leaning than left-leaning folk among them. So while a NoVa surge is probably good for Webb, it's not going to be Democratic votes across the board. And one might think that a big turnout in Norfolk would be GOP territory, although who knows, maybe a lot of military guys have read Webb's books.
We ain't down yet. Bottom of the ninth, behind by two, two out, three and two on the batter, runners on first and third.
No pressure. Swing for the fences.
Remember, the pitcher looks a little rattled. He has just gotten a signal from his dugout.
I hate to say this but I just don't trust any poll that is done by a university.
I am always suspect of polls. you can make them say anything you want just by framing the typye of questions asked
Nope, I don't trust any poll this close either. As Thurston Howell would say, "The best poll is currency." -- start following on Tradesports.
Sherrod Brown is a member of the Progressive (aka Communist) Caucus. Kucinich and Brown, so strong on Security! Maybe one of them will run for President. ;>
I hope I'm wrong but the apparent 'movement' you are seeing might be an illusion created by the pollsters shifting from 'registered' to 'likely' voters. Republicans always look better when likely voters are sampled.
Pollsters churn out a lot of junk polls early in the campaign season, sampling just 'adults' or using sloppy methodology. They try to 'get it right' during the last week or 2 of the campaign by doing the really expensive 'likely voters' poll then. This way they can say, "see, we were right!"
There is a fly in the ointment, too. 'Non-response' sometimes is the biggest answer to a pollsters questions. I know I don't have time to speak with these idiots. The feeling is that non-responses lead to a major undercounting of Republican voters.
I have a friend who is a Capt in the USAF. He got a poll here in PA and the person asked who he was planning on voting for. When he answered GOP for each question, the Pollster sounded like he was disgusted.
Now, How much does one of those pollsters get paid? Not much I imagine. So,how much of a strecth would it be for this person to not record the response,or just write the wrong thing on purpose because he didnt like the answers given.
I dont trust polls... the best one is the election itself.
per Fox just now, Corker up 8 points in TN over Ford per Mason Dixon poll
I think some of the tightening is moving to likely voters which means it was always closer than the MSM were willing to admit. I also think some of the movement is tightenning.
I also doubt specific polls like the one that says support for the marriage ammendment is waning in Va. That does not pass the smell test to me.
I just wanna bookmark this picture if I wanna post it after election day.
That's the most brilliant "Rove..." picture I've seen yet!
One for the ping list :)
Tuesday night will be interesting, that's for sure.
It'll be a tough night for me. I'll be very tired and at an open bar. Must practice restraint.
I'll be at what hopefully will be a victory party on election nite.
FOCUS ON THE HOUSE.
A GOP House is the only thing stopping amnesty right now.
Find a vulnerable district where you can contribute and do what you can.
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