Democrats, on the Offensive, Could Gain Both Houses

Washigton Post ^ | Sunday, November 5, 2006; Page A01 | Dan Balz and David S. Broder

[marginoferror]

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows some narrowing in the Democratic advantage in House races. The survey gives the Democrats a six-percentage-point lead nationally among likely voters asked which party they prefer for Congress. It was 14 points two weeks ago, but this remains a larger advantage than they have had in recent midterm elections......Bush's approval rating stands at 40 percent among all Americans and 43 percent among registered voters, a small but statistically insignificant increase in the past two weeks. About twice as many strongly disapprove of him as strongly approve.

Independents favor Democrats by an 18-point margin, but that is less than the 28-point advantage Democrats enjoyed two weeks ago.

The poll also showed that the Republican strategy of trying to make Democrats an unacceptable alternative may be working, at least at the margins.

Two weeks ago, 55 percent said Democratic members of Congress deserved reelection. In the new poll, that shrank to 48 percent. But Republicans remain stuck in the high thirties on the same question.

[Gordongekko909]

Democrats? Offensive? You said it, they stink on ice!

ZING!

[REDWOOD99]

This poll is great news! Read the questions at the link. We are on the march!

[indianrightwinger]

Is this from the news section? Or, their campaign AD section?

[p[adre29]

Democrats on the offensive?

What was a teen denied an abortion?

[Steven W.]

If the situation were reversed, they'd be writing about the 'big mo' apparent on Republican numbers here.

[Williams]

Is this the real headline? I'm sure it is. The article says all the democrat advantages are shrinking, yet they are on the offensive? The liberal media's agenda makes it a very illogical place.

[REDWOOD99]

Check the responses to question #'s 4,7,9 & 12. The headline is VERY misleading!

[Man50D]

Four things to remember about polls:

1. They poll only a tiny fraction of the population.
2. Pollsters can target a group of people they know will answer questions a certain way.
3. Questions can be structured in a specific manner to elicit a desired response.
4. Pollsters can record an answer contrary to the one given by the respondent if it doesn't match the answer desired by the pollster.

The most accurate poll and the only one that counts will be conducted on November 7th.

[jveritas]

It was 14 points two weeks ago, but this remains a larger advantage than they have had in recent midterm elections......

In fact that is very wrong. The democrats have held advantage in media all the way till election day in every election including the 1994 elections when the republican just crushed the democrats and won 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats. I think in 1994 the democrats has 4 or 5 points ahead in the last media polls before the elections. The only time where democrats were down in the media the last media polls before an election was in 2004.

[JLS]

Yes it is great news. The rule of thumb is 7 percent Dim advantage in the generic Congress question for the Dims to pick up seats.

[linn37]

Now I feel better.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

[1035rep]

The Washington Post-ABC News poll has cut the Democrat advantage by more than half in just 14 days.....You bet "We are on the march"

[tobyhill]

They can push this notion all they want but I don't believe the Rats will win majority in the House or Senate. In 1994, the year all MSM is comparing this to, the favorable ratings for individual districts was under 40% whereas today it's over 60% just no one likes the other persons reps.

[REDWOOD99]

You gotta dig into the results. I'm no pollster, but this looks like a significant swing on the most meaningful issues.

[Southack]

"A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows some narrowing in the Democratic advantage in House races. The survey gives the Democrats a six-percentage-point lead nationally among likely voters asked which party they prefer for Congress."

That's called the "generic ballot" poll, and it's flawed.

Democrats had a 4 point lead in the above "generic ballot" question back in 1994 when they lost more than 50 seats in the House.

The last time that Democrats had a 5 point lead in the "generic ballot" saw them lose 3 Senate seats.

Oh, and Democrats have led in that "generic ballot" poll in every survey taken in recent memory.

[NaughtiusMaximus]

The tide is turning and things are shaping up.

Naughtius is looking forward to a major schadenfreude and gloatfest on Wednesday as the RATs weep and wail. And what a bunch of sorry gits they are.

[ChildOfThe60s]

They missed pointing how how much of an advantage the Dems have in the GOTV effort with dead people. That's always been a much larger constituency for them. Matter of fact, seems to me that polling indicates that 99% of dead people always vote Democrat. Republicans have failed dismally in trying to crack that voting block.

[concerned about politics]

Sitting home and answering a poll on a telephone is one thing. Getting out to vote is another.

We're in an age of terrorism, and democrats aren't known for their bravery.
Again, in my opinion, Republicans do care and will vote. The democrats won't bother to get out of bed.
Talk and action are two different things. The democrats bitch and demand every one else do things for them. The Republicans stand up and actually do things by themselves.